PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

“Sudan to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.

WTI Oil front month (96 US$ today) will go lower and reach 50 US$ by the end of 2012 ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by herb on 2011-11-21; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.

Apple TV to debut in December 2012 —Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.

Over the next year or two, Apple will bring Cocoa development to the Windows desktop via an App Store that sells titles to a broad audience — Daniel Eran Dilger http://bit.ly/aXTPXK ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by TheScholar on 2010-11-15; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.

The smallest federated wiki will move beyond the stage of proof of concept this year. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-02-16; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.

I will still learn French by the end of the year. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-04-25; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.

Apple smartphones will have under 30% US market share at the end of 2012 ( 70% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.

'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012' —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.

“United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.

Facebook won't buy Opera (the browser) in 2012 ( 77% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.

Facebook shares will not pass 100$ per share by the end of 2012. ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by davidiach on 2012-06-06; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.

I'll be able to stick to my 2012 New Year resolution of 'no mammal meat for a year' till Dec 31, 2012. ( 20% confidence; 8 comments )

Created by roshni on 2012-03-05; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by roshni on 2012-12-31.

Hugo Chavez dies in the year 2012 ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

Hugo Chavez dies in the year 2012 ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

I will consume a story (book, movie, comic…) in french primarly for enjoyment and not language learning. ( 45% confidence )

Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.

NFL 2012: Cowboys will win NFC East ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-31.

NFL: Adrian Peterson won't break Eric Dickerson's single season rushing record in 2012 ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-20; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-31.

The bitcoin protocol will have a fatal weakness that is discovered, leading to the crash of the bitcoin economy. End of year prediction. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by kiba on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.

We will have a working people tracking system in our office ( 51% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-27; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-12-31.

There will be an massive earthquake in the midde east next year. ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by puya on 2011-04-17; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-30.

Apple's share in the smartphone market will collapse to 10% or less by the end of this year. ( 31% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by kiba on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-30.

The “Anonymous Narratives by LW Women” thread will receive >500 comments ( 63% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Konkvistador on 2012-09-09; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by Athrelon on 2012-12-30.

Google trends will show a decline in the term “asshat” within the last two years. ( 66% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-12-29; known on 2012-12-29; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-12-29.

The Met Office will issue a severe weather warning for some parts of the UK in the period 06/12/12-06/01/13 ( 85% confidence )

Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-06; known on 2013-01-06; judged right by Sarokrae on 2012-12-28.

Boehner will accept the fiscal cliff deal offered by Obama this week ( 65% confidence; 5 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-18; known on 2012-12-25; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-28.

In the Ontario (Canada) legislature, the Liberal minority will form the government, and as of 2012-12-21, they will still have the confidence of the House. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-27.

I will finish khanacademy by the end of this month. (380 out of 380 oncepts or more) http://www.khanacademy.org/profile/hackerkiba I have completed 323 out of 380 by November 7th 2012. Given that I seem to progressed at 2 concepts per day in order to rea ( 85% confidence )

Created by kiba on 2012-11-07; known on 2012-11-30; judged wrong by kiba on 2012-12-27.

By the end of the year Namecoin would be closer to Bitcoin in value than to the early-2012 value of Namecoin. ( 78% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by marchdown on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-27.

The Syrian regime will reach EOL by december 2012. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-04; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-27.

World economic depression ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-27.

Chrome will ship with the first public release of Android “Jelly Bean” (or whatever the major version after “Ice Cream Sandwich” is called) ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-12; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by ygert on 2012-12-27.

The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 28 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-26.

The next wave of internet bubbles will be based around services that harvest, collate and compute “Human meta data”. Most of which will come from Smart phone and Social Networking data plus real time obscure meta data will come from human input. ( 90% confidence; 7 comments )

Created by senectus on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2012-12-26.

The 2012 Apocalypse will end up being a hoax. ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by seansman15@hotmail.com on 2011-03-23; known on 2012-12-23; judged right by ygert on 2012-12-25.

NFL: New England Patriots will beat the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 16 of the 2012 Season ( 80% confidence )