The new Silk Road URL will be revealed to be a scam/phishing/law enforcement one. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 109 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-02; known on 2012-12-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-02.

Bitcoin will be exchanged at a rate higher than $17/BTC at the end of November, 2012. ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by tedks on 2012-11-15; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-01.

Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 1st 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-25; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-12-01.

It'll be reported that FBI didn't get a search warrant to access Broadwell's gmail account ( 65% confidence; 8 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.

It'll be reported that FBI didn't get a search warrant to access Broadwell's gmail account ( 65% confidence; 8 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.

If Ron Paul runs as a third party candidate in the 2012 presidential election, then he will receive greater than 10% of the popular vote. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 17 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29.

NFL: Harbaugh will name Alex Smith as his starter for the 49ers this week ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-27; known on 2012-12-02; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-29.

Conditional on a reply and clear answer, Charles Parlapanides will claim Parlapanides' authorship. ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-28; known on 2012-11-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-11-28.

Charles Parlapanides will reply to my message on Twitter within 1 month and will clearly confirm or deny authorship. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-28; known on 2012-11-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-11-28.

In at least one state Obama wins in 2012, Gary Johnson will win a number of votes greater than the margin by which Obama defeats Romney in that state. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-30; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-27.

At least one major broadcaster will have to retract its calling a state for a particular candidate within a week after the election tomorrow. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-06; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-27.

Skyfall (James Bond movie) will do worse than expected (4 wk gross < 170m @ HSX) ( 65% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-22; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-27.

NFL: Seattle Seahawks will beat Miami Dolphins in Week 12 of the 2012 Season ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-22; known on 2012-11-28; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-26.

NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers will beat Cleveland Browns in Week 12 of the 2012 Season ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-22; known on 2012-11-28; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-26.

NFL: Arizona Cardinals will beat St Louis Rams in Week 12 of the 2012 Season ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-22; known on 2012-11-28; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-26.

NFL: Green Bay Packers will beat NY Giants in Week 12 of the 2012 Season ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-22; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-26.

Super Mario Bros. Z episode 9 will be released on or before November 24, 2012. ( 21% confidence )

Created by Grognor on 2012-01-29; known on 2012-11-24; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-11-24.

Assuming a 2nd Obama term, “The result will be widely attributed to an improving economy (in the media and in polls and whether or not the economy actually improves)” —Jack ( 88% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2012-11-20; judged wrong by Torquil on 2012-11-24.

Mangaka Mutsumi Akazaki (formerly of Fractale) will be publishing a regular series within a year. ( 40% confidence; 77 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-11-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-11-23.

NFL: Dallas Cowboys will beat Washington Redskins in Week 12 of the 2012 Season ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-22; known on 2012-11-28; judged wrong by dwibby on 2012-11-23.

Apple's announcement for the 4th major iPad refresh will call the new iPad “the new iPad” ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-09; known on 2013-08-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-11-22.

The first episode of the third season of MLP:FIM will first be broadcast on November 20'th ( 55% confidence )

Created by _W_ on 2012-10-02; known on 2012-11-21; judged wrong by _W_ on 2012-11-21.

http://pastebin.com/czd3pHDr Some elements of the above sentence would reappear in Ixrec's review of oretsuba. (Moogy/Kefit) ( 5% confidence )

Created by meisnewbie on 2012-02-27; known on 2013-02-27; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2012-11-21.

DWibby's Week 11 NFL predictions based on intuitive confidence scale (rated from 0-5, and mapped to 50-100% at 10% intervals) will be at least 5% less than true accuracy at each 10% interval. ( 80% confidence; 15 comments )

Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-20; judged wrong by dwibby on 2012-11-20.

NFL: Chicago Bears will beat San Francisco 49ers in Week 11 of the 2012 Season ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-20; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-20.

LSD microdosing experiment: pair 4: placebo then active? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-11-19; known on 2012-11-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-11-19.