PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will write a 300+ line Clojure/ClojureScript program before 2013 ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.

Apple will make Siri available to iPhone 4 users, before 2013. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-22; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.

Before 2013, a new version of NetHack (with version number > 3.4.3) will be available on nethack.org ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.

Bitcoin stays >= $60 for at least 72 hours, any time before 2013-01-01 UTC ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.

I will finish the game Limbo before 2013-01-01 UTC ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-01; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.

I will watch Dexter 7×06 before 2013 ( 1% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-11-01; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.

Apple will ship a Macbook Air (or closest product successor) with a non-glossy display to a customer before 2013-01-01 UTC ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.

Bill Murray will die in Ghostbusters 3 ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

Foreign military intervention in Mali ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Leo on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

I will die by non-suicide means by the end of 2012. ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2012-05-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

United States Facebook user base will fall under 100,000,000 users by December 31, 2013. ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Joe Craig on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.

The energy source formerly known as cold fusion will be generally accepted as real by end 2012. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by waveman on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.

“An internationally recognised Palestinian state to be established before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.

Giving What We Can will have at least 320 pledged members by December 31, 2012. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by CarlShulman on 2011-12-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.

The US$ will touch parity with the Euro (1€=1US$) before the end of 2012 ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by herb on 2011-11-20; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.

The energy source formerly known as cold fusion will be generally accepted as real by end 2012. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by waveman on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.

The GDP per capita (PPP) of Hong Kong (judged by the IMF) will exceed that of the USA before 2013. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.

Amadou Toumani Toure known dead on Dec 31 ( 30% confidence )

Created by Leo on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

Amadou Toumani Toure known alive on Dec 31 ( 60% confidence )

Created by Leo on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.

Facebook will fall as low as $15 in 2012 ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-29; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

Apple long-rumored TV product will not arrive in 2012 ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-12; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.

Hugo Chavez dies in the year 2012 ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

The energy source formerly known as cold fusion will be generally accepted as real by end 2012. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by waveman on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.

Iran will not successfully test a nuclear weapon in 2012. ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by smijer on 2012-01-11; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.

No new federal gun laws will be passed in 2012 as a result of the Colorado shooting ( 75% confidence; 7 wagers; 18 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.

No elected government will hold power in Egypt in 2012 ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by _W_ on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

Bashar al-Assad will not be president of Syria on Dec 31 2012 ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by georgesdelatour on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

The world will not end on December 2012. ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by puya on 2011-03-18; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.

Assad will remain in power in Syria until end of 2012. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by fiftytwo on 2012-12-04; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.

There will be a third party candidate that gets more than 5% in the 2012 election for president in the US. ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin will be inaugurated as President of Russia in 2012. ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Grrrr on 2012-12-31.

I will have completed all (367) exercises on Khan Academy by the end of 2012. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-09-29; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-12-31.

GJP: #1081 Will the Nigerian government and Boko Haram commence official talks before 31 December 2012? ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

Bitcoin/USD prices: “best case, 10 bucks. Worst case, 5 bucks.” —kiba ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

GJP: #1053 By 31 December 2012, will the UK officially announce its intention* to withdraw from the EU? ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

GJP: Iran to conduct a successful nuclear test before December 31, 2012 ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

“Cuba to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

GJP: Kim Jong-Il or his designated successor to be in charge of North Korea as of December 31, 2012 ( 86% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.

“Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

“The Freedom Tower to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

“The Chicago Spire to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

The WTC mosque will be relocated. —Roger Ebert ( 30% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

“Twitter to announce an IPO before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

“By the end of 2012, more than 50% of the root servers on the internet will be located outside the United States.” ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.

USA will be out of the Middle East by the end of 2012 ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

“A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

“China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.

“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.

“Iran to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.

“Syria to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.

Statistics

Judged Predictions