PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Judged Predictions

“Hillary Clinton to be elected President in 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
“Michele Bachmann to be elected President in 2012” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
“Will Ron Paul to win a Republican primary/caucus in 2012?” —Intrade ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-29; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
I will improve the T >= (11/20)S bound by 2013. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
“The Google Lunar X Prize to be won on/before 31 Dec 2012.” -intrade ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
The Republicans to control the House of Representatives after 2012 Congressional Elections – Intrade ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
If Romney wins the Republican candidacy, then Obama will publicly offer him a bet sometime during the 2012 presidential campaign. This prediction will be withdrawn if the antecedent proposition is false. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
In 2012, Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities, or the North Korean government will collapse. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
P != NP will not be resolved by 2013 ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
The Riemann Hypothesis will not be proven in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
General AI will not be built by 2013 ( 97% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
The relationship between P and BQP will not be resolved in 2012. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
There will be improvement in efficient matrix multiplication in 2012 that will be discussed in at least one of the following blogs: Combinatorics and more, Shetl-Optimized, Godel's Lost Letter. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
In 2012 there will be new results for either the group isomorphism problem or the graph isomorphism problem discussed at at least one of the following blogs: Combinatorics and more, Shetl-Optimized, Godel's Lost Letter. ( 52% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
No improvement in factoring integers in a classical setting that has better time-asymptotics than the best current ones will be made in 2012 ( 85% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
I will coauthor at least one paper on integer complexity in 2013 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
Humans will continue to have at least one functioning probe on Martian surface or a satellite around Mars for all of 2012 ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 31 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
Russia will lose at least one rocket launch in 2012 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
In 2012, I will go to at least two open viewing nights for telescopes in the greater Boston area ( 58% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
The Hubble Telescope will continue functioning though 2012 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
My mother will not read any books by Steven Pinker this year ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
I will have a total LessWrong karma of at least 10,000 by the end of the year. ( 75% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
I will achieve a non-trivial lower bound for either the prime conductor Artin representations or the generic conductor case before January. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-23; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
My friend's house will be connected to fiberglass internet before 2013. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Mqrius on 2013-01-01.
Current Syrian regime to fall by January 1, 2013 ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-01-01.
At the end of 2012, the Poincaré conjecture will remain the only solved Millennium Prize Problem. ( 94% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Qiaochu on 2013-01-01.
Absolutely nothing apocalyptic will happen in the year 2012. ( 98% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by thephilosiraptor on 2009-11-17; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by faws on 2013-01-01.
Steve Ballmer will be CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2012 ( 78% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by faws on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by faws on 2013-01-01.
By the end of 2012, there will be a general consensus that the gold bubble has burst. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Stevens on 2013-01-01.
“There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs…” —jdgalt ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
Android will be the dominant smartphone platform by the end of 2012. The market share, as determined by number of devices, will be greater for Android smartphones than Blackberry, Symbian, iOS (iPhone), or any platforms not yet launched. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by blanu on 2010-08-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
There will be at least one human being alive on earth even after the end of the year 2012 ( 99% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by vinayak on 2012-02-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by vinayak on 2013-01-01.
By the end of 2012 the amount of international students at UTS will become less than 10 percent. ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by puya on 2011-03-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2013-01-01.
Jesus returns to planet earth before the end of 2012. ( 0% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Torquil on 2012-11-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Flipnash on 2013-08-17.
Alicorn will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
As of 01-01-2013, according to the CIA World Factbook, none of the top 5 GDP per capita (PPP) countries will contain the word “democracy” or “democratic” in their government type variable. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-01-01.
HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2013. ( 12% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-01-01.
PredictionBook will display users' Brier scores by the end of this year. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-25; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
The world will not end in 2012 ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
Before 2013, Google will stop developing Chrome OS, or announce a Chromebook running Android, or announce a netbook/ultrabook-shaped successor running Android ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
I will use org-mode at least 180/365 days in 2012 ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
Google Search will be inaccessible to US visitors for at least 4 hours due to a “blackout” protesting pending legislation, before 2013 ( 5% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
I will listen to all of Michel Thomas – Japanese Foundation, before 2013 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-01; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
I will attend at least one LessWrong meetup in person, before 2013 ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-04-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
I will watch 90%+ of Love Exposure (2008) before 2013 ( 43% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
I will re-subscribe to Netflix at any point before 2013 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
My continuous web archiving system will have 90%+ uptime in 2012 ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
I will play through the original Deus Ex again before 2013 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
I will buy a MacBook Air before 2013 ( 50% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.