Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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NFL: Megatron will break Jerry Rice's single season receiving record in 2012 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-20; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-23.
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NFL: Detroit Lions will beat the Atlanta Falcons in Week 16 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-22; known on 2012-12-25; judged wrong by RandomNFL on 2012-12-23.
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The world will end on 21 December 2012. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-17; known on 2012-12-22; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2012-12-22.
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The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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World will not end on 12-21-2012. ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2012-12-21; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-21.
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USD worth over 3 EUR ( 18% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-21.
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Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 31st 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-25; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by army1987 on 2012-12-21.
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Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 21st 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 ( 53% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-25; known on 2012-12-21; judged right by army1987 on 2012-12-21.
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Reddit: “Dawn of The Final Day” meme on frontpage on 2012/12/20. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-12-20; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-12-21.
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Reddit: reminder that “Dawn of The Final Day” frontpage was predicted a year ago on frontpage on 2012/12/20. ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-12-20; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-12-21.
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HPMoR lidz 2013. gada 1. martam netiks turpinats ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by zaarcis on 2012-12-10; known on 2013-03-01; judged wrong by Arets Paeglis on 2012-12-20.
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I will be accepted to UChicago EA. ( 25% confidence )
Created by Christopher on 2012-12-13; known on 2012-12-18; judged wrong by Christopher on 2012-12-19.
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Jacob Zuma of ANC will not be re-elected to lead South Africa at Mangaung 2012. Julius Malema is his downfall, he shouldn't have sacked his liutenant rather he should have made peace with the king maker. ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by general on 2011-11-19; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by D_Malik on 2012-12-18.
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NFL: NY Jets will beat the Tennessee Titans in Week 15 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-16; known on 2012-12-20; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-18.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 8: placebo then active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-17; known on 2012-12-18; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-17.
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“[I]t's virtually impossible to imagine taxes on the wealthy [implicitly defined as either income > US$250k or income > US$1m in 2009 dollars] not having been increased substantially by the time Obama's four years in office are up.” —Nate Silver ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2012-12-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-17.
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Chapter 86 of HPMOR will be published in 2012. ( 40% confidence )
Created by ygert on 2012-12-16; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2012-12-17.
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Dexter season 7: Deb and Dex kiss. ( 40% confidence )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-12-17.
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NFL: San Francisco 49ers will beat the New England Patriots in Week 15 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-16; known on 2012-12-20; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-17.
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Dexter season 7: real identity of Bay Harbor Butcher is publicly announced. ( 15% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19; judged right by muflax on 2012-12-17.
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Dexter season 7: Deb forgets the finale of season 6. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-12-17.
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Dexter season 7: a regular dies. ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19; judged right by muflax on 2012-12-17.
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Dexter season 7: Quinn investigates Dexter. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-12-17.
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Dexter season 7: Dexter will intentionally kill Deb ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-21; known on 2012-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-12-17.
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United States Facebook user base will fall under 100,000,000 users by December 31, 2013. ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Joe Craig on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.
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gwern.net total traffic will average <2000 daily visits in the week a year from now. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-17; known on 2012-12-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-17.
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NFL: Kansas City Chiefs will beat the Oakland Raiders in Week 15 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-16; known on 2012-12-20; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-17.
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NFL: San Diego Chargers will beat the Carolina Panthers in Week 15 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-16; known on 2012-12-20; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-17.
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NFL: Dallas Cowboys will beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 15 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-16; known on 2012-12-20; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-17.
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NFL: Detroit Lions will beat the Arizona Cardinals in Week 15 of the 2012 Season ( 70% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-16; known on 2012-12-20; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-17.
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NFL: Seattle Seahawks will beat the Buffalo Bills in Week 15 of 2012 Season ( 70% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-16; known on 2012-12-20; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-17.
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gwern.net referral traffic will average <1000 daily visits in the week a year from now. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-17; known on 2012-12-17; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-17.
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NFL 2012: Chargers will win AFC West ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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NFL 2012: Patriots will win AFC East ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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NFL: Houston Texans will beat the Indianopolis Colts in Week 15 of 2012 season ( 80% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-16; known on 2012-12-20; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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NFL: Miami Dolphins will beat the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 15 of 2012 Season ( 80% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-16; known on 2012-12-20; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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NFL: Green Bay Packers will beat the Chicago Bears in Week 15 of 2012 Season ( 60% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-16; known on 2012-12-20; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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NFL: New Orleans Saints will beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 15 of the 2012 Season ( 60% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-16; known on 2012-12-20; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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NFL: St. Louis Rams will beat the Minnesota Vikings in Week 15 of the 2012 Season ( 60% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-16; known on 2012-12-20; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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NFL: Cleveland Browns will beat the Washington Redskins in Week 15 of the 2012 Season ( 60% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-16; known on 2012-12-20; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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NFL: NY Giants will beat the Atlanta Falcons in Week 15 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-16; known on 2012-12-20; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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NFL: Baltimore Ravens will beat the Denver Broncos in Week 15 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-16; known on 2012-12-20; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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NFL 2012: Packers will win NFC North division ( 65% confidence )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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NFL 2012: Texans will win AFC South ( 70% confidence )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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The Hobbit Part 1 will gross more on its opening weekend than LotR: Return of the King ( 71% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-12-16; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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Inflation in US will be higher that 7% by 2012 ( 36% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by borisbrev on 2009-11-04; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by ledflyd on 2012-12-16.
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Inflation in US will be higher that 7% by 2012 ( 36% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by borisbrev on 2009-11-04; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by ledflyd on 2012-12-16.
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Apple (AAPL) will buy Vimeo. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Nieskens on 2011-10-17; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-16.
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I will be accepted to MIT EA. ( 25% confidence )
Created by Christopher on 2012-12-11; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by Christopher on 2012-12-15.
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I will make >$5000 through bitcoins ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Jach on 2012-08-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jach on 2012-12-15.