PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

The NYC subway will remain fully closed for all of Tuesday. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gusl on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-10-31; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-02.

The broken crane hanging above NYC will not fall during hurricane Sandy. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-01; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-02.

US unemployment rate below 8% by the 2012 election (last reported number before the election) ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-10; known on 2012-11-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02.

DNB/nicotine day 35: active? ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-11-02; known on 2012-11-02; judged right by gwern on 2012-11-02.

Lorne will not clean the bathroom during October ( 90% confidence )

Created by SaramMueller on 2012-10-24; known on 2012-11-01; judged wrong by SaramMueller on 2012-11-01.

The character of George Washington will make a Face Heel Turn in Assassin's Creed 3. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2012-03-05; known on 2012-11-01; judged right by papermachine on 2012-11-01.

Assassin's Creed 3 will be available in the United States by October 31, 2012 ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2012-03-05; known on 2012-11-01; judged right by papermachine on 2012-11-01.

Ares/Mars will make an on-screen appearance in Assassin's Creed 3, as a member of the First Civilization. ( 10% confidence )

Created by papermachine on 2012-03-05; known on 2012-11-01; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-11-01.

DNB/nicotine day 34: active? ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-11-01; known on 2012-11-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-11-01.

'Will Palin, Trump, Bloomberg, Paul or Bachmann run as an Independent or 3rd party candidate?' —Intrade ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-09; known on 2012-11-02; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-10-31.

Pope Benedict XVI will be dead before November, 2012. ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-11-01; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-10-31.

I will have finished reading “Four Witnesses: The Early Church in Her Own Words” by Oct. 31st ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jakewalker on 2012-09-13; known on 2012-10-31; judged wrong by jakewalker on 2012-10-31.

There will be 2 or more Gangnam style touchdown celebrations in the NFL next week (10/25 to 10/29) ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-22; known on 2012-10-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-10-30.

Avengers will outgross Avatar (global box office > 2.78b) ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by davidiach on 2012-10-30.

Avengers will outgross Titanic (global box office > 2.18b) ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by davidiach on 2012-10-30.

If I buy a new Honda Rebel this month, then I won't pay more than $3,700 for it. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-11; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-10-30.

DNB/nicotine day 33: active? ( 55% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-30; known on 2012-10-30; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-30.

Charles Parlapanides will reply to my message on Twitter within 1 month, ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-28; known on 2012-11-28; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-29.

LSD microdosing experiment: pair 2: placebo then active? ( 55% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-26; known on 2012-10-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-26.

Canaccord Genuity analyst Michael Walkley: Apple to ship 9 million to 10 million iPhone 5s from Friday to September 29. ( 45% confidence; 8 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-18; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-10-26.

Canaccord Genuity analyst Michael Walkley: Apple to ship 9 million to 10 million iPhone 5s from Friday to September 29. ( 45% confidence; 8 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-18; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-10-26.

Last.fm will become intertwined with Facebook, and take the spotlight away from Spotify. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JMArchitect on 2011-10-21; known on 2012-10-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-25.

DNB/nicotine day 32: active? ( 45% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-25; known on 2012-10-25; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-25.

Non-Japanese customers will be allowed to buy e-books in the Japanese Kindle store. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-10-25.

Amazon opens Japanese Kindle store in 2012. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-10-25.

By October 24, 2012 brazil84 will update his estimate that Amanda Knox was guilty to below 50% and declare that he has so updated on Less Wrong. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-25; known on 2012-10-24; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-10-24.

Dutch house prices as reported by cbs.nl will have fallen more than 3% year on year by September 2012 ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by dhoe on 2011-10-24; known on 2012-10-31; judged right by dhoe on 2012-10-24.

There will be a Sydney compDesGrp session within 6 weeks. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-09-12; known on 2012-10-24; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-10-24.

There'll be no iPad Mini in 2012 ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-10-23.

There are at least 4 false things reported as “rumors” in this ValueWalk article about the iPad Mini, starting with the $329 price ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-22; known on 2012-10-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-10-23.

DNB/nicotine day 31: active? ( 55% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-23; known on 2012-10-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-23.

Lance Armstrong will lose a large portion of his commercial sponsors by end of 2014 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-25; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-10-22.

DNB/nicotine day 30: active? ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-22; known on 2012-10-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-22.

'the MacBook Air in the future (18-24 months) will switch to ARM once the >2GHz ARM processors start shipping en masse' —pkaler ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-22; known on 2012-10-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-21.

Time team 7.1 will be repeated on Discovery History Later today ( 80% confidence )

Created by Purplerabbits on 2012-10-21; known on 2012-10-21; judged wrong by Purplerabbits on 2012-10-21.

DNB/nicotine day 29: active? ( 55% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-21; known on 2012-10-21; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-21.

Yvain will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-10-21.

The Less Wrong Karma will be changed before October 20 so that the -5 penalty for replying to -3 comments is removed or adjusted. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-31; known on 2012-10-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-10-20.

Ichiro will have a higher batting average for the Yankees (including playoffs) for the rest of the year than he did with Seattle ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-24; known on 2012-11-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-10-20.

I will become student senator ( 75% confidence )

Created by huggins on 2012-09-14; known on 2012-11-16; judged right by huggins on 2012-10-18.

Harry Altman and I will have at least one joint paper published by the end of 2013 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-16; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Sniffnoy on 2012-10-18.

Housemate one-boxes ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jach on 2012-10-17; known on 2012-10-17; judged wrong by Jach on 2012-10-17.

DNB/nicotine day 28: active? ( 55% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-17; known on 2012-10-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-17.

I'll lose 10 pounds before Summit 2012. ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2012-10-15; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2012-10-15.

Dexter: Louis returns in season 7 as non-villain. ( 25% confidence )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-12-12; judged right by muflax on 2012-10-15.

Dexter: Louis returns in season 7 as villain. ( 35% confidence )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-10-15.

Dexter season 7: Quinn and Louis will work together. ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-10-15.

China will launch 'tiangong' its first space station by the end of 2012 – http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/26/china-space-station-tiangong ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-05-01; known on 2012-12-16; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-10-15.

Business models based on pay-per-click (as Google's) will be shown to have failed by 2012. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by kochikvp on 2010-08-27; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-10-14.

DNB/nicotine day 27: active? ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-14; known on 2012-10-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-14.

Statistics

Judged Predictions