PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Judged Predictions

One week after its release, 'The Master' will hold a score of 85% or above on RottenTomatoes. ( 85% confidence )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-09-21; judged right by lukeprog on 2012-09-21.
My LSD order will arrive. ( 90% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-05; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-21.
I will cease to identify as an atheist after my LSD trip. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-06; known on 2013-03-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-21.
LSD: I will experience a partial or fully mystical experience. ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2012-09-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-21.
LSD: My trip will be generally positive (and not a 'bad trip'). ( 75% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2012-09-28; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-21.
I will like Moonrise Kingdom (2012) ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-21; known on 2012-09-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-21.
Initial release of iPhone 5 or iPad 3 (or their market names) will allow installing your own applications, without jailbreaking or signing up for a developer program ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-05; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-21.
Total Recall (2012) will do better than Bourne Legacy (2012) (measured by box office receipts of the first 4 wks) ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-09-21; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-09-21.
“The first person to do a special [specific] drawing for this thing will get fired” LBJ LBJ will be the first person to do a specific drawing for this purpose. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-09-21; known on 2012-09-21; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-09-21.
I will get my motorcycle license in a week or less. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-15; known on 2012-09-22; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-20.
NYTimes: Paul Krugman will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-09-16; judged right by William-Quixote on 2012-09-20.
NYTimes: Ross Douthat will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-09-16; judged wrong by William-Quixote on 2012-09-20.
I will have read Ryan's Atlas Shrugged by 2 weeks time. ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by williamycai on 2012-09-06; known on 2012-09-20; judged wrong by williamycai on 2012-09-20.
NYTimes: Thomas Friedman will make a (charitably) a testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-09-16; judged wrong by William-Quixote on 2012-09-20.
NYTimes: David Brooks will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-09-16; judged right by William-Quixote on 2012-09-20.
NYTimes: Bill Keller will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-09-16; judged wrong by William-Quixote on 2012-09-20.
NYTimes: Charles Blow will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-09-16; judged wrong by William-Quixote on 2012-09-20.
DNB/nicotine day 16: active? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-20; known on 2012-09-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-20.
My LSD order will arrive within 2 weeks. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-05; known on 2012-09-20; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-19.
GJP: #1102 Will Ireland ratify the European Fiscal Compact in a referendum vote before 1 October 2012? ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-06; known on 2012-10-02; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-09-19.
Homestuck: Eridan will be prototyped into a kernelsprite by himself. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-09-19; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-09-19.
Homestuck: Sollux and Feferi are prototyped together into Roxy's kernelsprite ( 40% confidence )

Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-09-19; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-09-19.
Homestuck: Of the five remaining dead trolls, at least four of them will be prototyped into fused sprites. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-09-19; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-09-19.
Homestuck: Nepeta and Equius are prototyped together into Dirk's kernelsprite ( 70% confidence )

Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-09-19; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-09-19.
Homestuck: Sollux and Eridan are prototyped together into Roxy's kernelsprite ( 10% confidence )

Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-09-19; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-09-19.
Homestuck: Feferi and Eridan are prototyped together into Roxy's kernelsprite ( 20% confidence )

Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-09-19; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-09-19.
I will have finished reading up through the latest chapter HPMOR by Oct. 1st ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jakewalker on 2012-09-13; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by jakewalker on 2012-09-19.
DNB/nicotine day 15: active? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-19; known on 2012-09-19; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-19.
The Wikipedia user Bread Ninja will have stopped editing more than weekly within 2 years. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-18; known on 2012-09-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-18.
Iphone 5 shape is same as Iphone 4, the onlything different is the antenna will change a bit! ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-03-02; known on 2013-03-16; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-09-18.
PG will not reply to Eliezer's question on HN: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4510702 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sdr on 2012-09-12; known on 2012-09-17; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-09-17.
DNB/nicotine day 14: active? ( 75% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-17; known on 2012-09-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-17.
1 million page-views on `http://www.gwern.net` within 4 months. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-11-02; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-17.
DNB/nicotine day 13: active? ( 25% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-16; known on 2012-09-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-16.
There'll be significant protests, riots or attacks against American embassies in more than 5 middle eastern/muslim countries, as a result of the anti-muslim youtube video ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-13; known on 2013-03-01; judged right by jakewalker on 2012-09-15.
There'll be significant protests, riots or attacks against American embassies in more than 5 middle eastern/muslim countries, as a result of the anti-muslim youtube video ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-13; known on 2013-03-01; judged right by jakewalker on 2012-09-15.
There'll be significant protests, riots or attacks against American embassies in more than 5 middle eastern/muslim countries, as a result of the anti-muslim youtube video ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-13; known on 2013-03-01; judged right by jakewalker on 2012-09-15.
I will be able to leave office before 6pm everyday this week. ( 20% confidence )

Created by williamycai on 2012-09-07; known on 2012-09-13; judged right by williamycai on 2012-09-14.
My Little Pony: Friendship is Magic season 3 will open with a two-part episode ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2012-05-29; known on 2012-11-16; judged right by Grognor on 2012-09-14.
DNB/nicotine day 12: active? ( 30% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-14; known on 2012-09-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-14.
Fed won't announce QE3 at their Sept 12-13 meeting ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-09-15; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-09-14.
DNB/nicotine day 11: active? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-13; known on 2012-09-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-13.
Batman the Dark Knight Rises will do worse than expected (4wk gross < 415m on HSX) ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-14; known on 2012-08-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-09-13.
Iphone 5 will release next year 2012 ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-04-17.
iPhone 5 will launch in September of 2012 — Brian White, Topeka Capital Market ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-09-13.
iphone 5 won't have significantly different form factor than iphone 4S ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-09-13.
HN user tsunamifury will comment on HN again. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by ggreer on 2012-08-31; known on 2012-09-21; judged right by ggreer on 2012-09-12.
Initial shipments (0-30 days after launch day) of iPhone 5 will not have a model with over 512 MB RAM ( 50% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-21; known on 2013-08-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-12.
iPhone 5 (not “4S”) will launch Sprint-only in the US ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-04; known on 2012-09-13; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-12.
No additional changes will be made to my design project after Tues ( 10% confidence )

Created by williamycai on 2012-09-07; known on 2012-09-11; judged wrong by williamycai on 2012-09-12.