Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Correctly answer midterm question 13 ( 90% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.
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Correctly answer midterm question 12 ( 90% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.
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Correctly answer midterm question 11 ( 80% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.
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Correctly answer midterm question 10 ( 100% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.
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Correctly answer midterm question 9 ( 100% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.
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Correctly answer midterm question 8 ( 60% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.
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Correctly answer midterm question 7 ( 100% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.
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Correctly answer midterm question 6 ( 70% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.
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Correctly answer midterm question 5 ( 100% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.
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Correctly answer midterm question 4 ( 90% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.
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Correctly answer midterm question 3 ( 100% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.
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Correctly answer midterm question 2 ( 80% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-11-22.
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Correctly answer midterm question 1 ( 90% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.
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I will wake up tomorrow morning by 6.30am, for the purpose of completing my Latin Homework ( 80% confidence )
Created by Codyz on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged wrong by Codyz on 2011-11-21.
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Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 46% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.
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Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 46% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.
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The war in Israel-Plestine will end ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by cheick on 2011-11-18; known on 2011-11-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-21.
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Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 46% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.
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Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 46% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.
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I will get over a 90 on all 3 of my upcoming tests this week (Math, Biology, US History) ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-30; known on 2011-11-20; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-11-20.
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GJP: #1033 Will the Tunisian Ennahda party officially announce the formation of an interim coalition government by 15 November 2011? ( 65% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2011-11-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-20.
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“Dell's cheapest computer costs $379 (with a monitor) … in another five years, computers will be one-fourth their current price.” —Jakob Nielsen ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2011-11-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-20.
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Bailey will defeat Castillo at UFC 139. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.
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Brown will defeat Baczynski at UFC 139. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.
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Pace will defeat Torres at UFC 139. ( 51% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.
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Tibau will defeat dos Anjos at UFC 139. ( 51% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.
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Weidman will defeat Lawlor at UFC 139. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.
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McDonald will defeat Soto at UFC 139. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.
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Bader will defeat Brilz at UFC 139. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.
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Bonnar will defeat Kingsbury at UFC 139. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.
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Kampmann will defeat Story at UFC 139. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.
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Faber will defeat Bowles at UFC 139. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.
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Le will defeat Silva at UFC 139. ( 55% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.
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Rua will defeat Henderson at UFC 139. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.
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I will complete all of the chapter 3 exercises in Introduction to JAVA Programming by 2011-11-19. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.
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I will get a BSNL broadband connection this week. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-16; known on 2011-11-20; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-11-20.
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Greece will quit euro ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sucrenoir on 2011-11-04; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-19.
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I will have the Stanford ai-class anki deck up-to-date by the start of the midterm exams. ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-11-19.
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At least 1 of the 3 books I ordered from Flipkart today will have been delivered by Sunday. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-18; known on 2011-11-20; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-19.
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As of 2012-12-21, the OPERA neutrino anomaly at CERN will not have been reproduced by anyone, anywhere. ( 87% confidence; 14 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-18.
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I will win in WordFeud against toffe ( 90% confidence )
Created by fnedrik on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-18; judged right by fnedrik on 2011-11-18.
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I will predict this prediction accurately. ( 100% confidence )
Created by Mqrius on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-11-17; judged right by Mqrius on 2011-11-17.
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cousin_it is the other vladimir ( 70% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by u_ on 2011-08-18; known on 2011-08-18; judged right by gwern on 2011-11-17.
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I will have read Godel, Escher, Bach by the end of this year. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-17.
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I will have read Godel, Escher, Bach by the end of this month. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-17.
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I will have read Godel, Escher, Bach by 18th November. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-11; known on 2011-11-18; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-17.
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the sun will rise in the west and sets in the east ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dr_freezy on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-11-17; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-17.
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I will get ai-class homework question 5.1 correct 4/4 ( 90% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-14; known on 2011-11-16; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-17.
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I will get ai-class homework question 5.1 mostly correct: 3/4 ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-14; known on 2011-11-16; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-17.
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I will get ai-class homework question 5.2 right. (12/12 – there are four rows of 3 answers each) ( 80% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-14; known on 2011-11-16; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-17.