Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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D will visit me today ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-16; known on 2011-10-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-16.
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D will call me back today ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-16; known on 2011-10-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-16.
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We will not be finished eating by 8:15 PM. ( 80% confidence )
Created by chris_carr@predictionbook.ccarr.com on 2011-10-14; known on 2011-10-15; judged wrong by chris_carr@predictionbook.ccarr.com on 2011-10-15.
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My Modalert will arrive day after tomorrow. ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-10-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-14.
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'I predict…a major earthquake, magnitude seven or more will happen within twenty kilometers of a line from nagano city, nagano to matsudo, chiba' ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2011-10-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-13.
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My Modalert will arrive tomorrow. ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-10-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-13.
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My Modalert will arrive today. ( 25% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-10-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-13.
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I will feel sick again when I donate blood today. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-10-13; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-13.
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Maria and Mikael Jungner will initiate divorce before October 1st, 2011. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mikko2 on 2010-10-01; known on 2011-10-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-12.
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Tristan's teacher will report that Tristan is unhappy today. He may or may not talk about having to move. ( 65% confidence )
Created by chris_carr@predictionbook.ccarr.com on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-10-12; judged wrong by chris_carr@predictionbook.ccarr.com on 2011-10-12.
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GJP: #1023 Will former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko be found guilty on any charges in a Ukrainian court before 1 November 2011? ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-02; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-12.
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The Prediction Book Wikipedia page will be tagged for deletion or deleted within 2 weeks. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-10-26; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-12.
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The PredictionBook Wikipedia article will be deleted within 1 year. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-11; known on 2012-10-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-12.
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The PredictionBook Wikipedia article will be deleted within 2 years. ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-10-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-12.
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The Prediction Book Wikipedia page will be deleted within a month. ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-11-11; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-10-12.
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Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 46% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.
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Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 46% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.
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GiveWell will accept me as a volunteer. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2011-10-13; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-11.
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Sweden will qualify for Euro 2012 as best runner up ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-10-08; known on 2011-10-12; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-10-11.
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Sweden will qualify for Euro 2012 after play-offs ( 60% confidence )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-10-08; known on 2011-11-16; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-10-11.
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Critical Windows updates will be released today (UTC) ( 99% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-10-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-11.
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A PredictionBook Wikipedia page will be created within the next 30 minutes. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-10-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11.
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There will be no noticeable disruption of financial services offered by the New York Stock Exchange on October 10th. ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Gedusa on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-10-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11.
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Third-party candidates will take at least 15% of the popular votes in the 2012 US presidential election. ( 26% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Third-party candidates will take at least 15% of the popular votes in the 2012 US presidential election. ( 26% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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No one will join this prediction until friday. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Metus on 2011-10-10; known on 2011-10-14; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11.
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GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1016: Will PM Donald Tusk's Civic Platform Party win more seats than any other party in the October 2011 Polish parliamentary elections? ( 55% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-10-11; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-10.
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“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 30 Sep 2011” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-10.
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Qwikster will resurrect Red Envelope Entertainment or some similar film production and distribution arm within a year of the Qwikster/Netflix split. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by roxton on 2011-09-19; known on 2012-11-01; judged wrong by roxton on 2011-10-10.
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Android will be the dominant smartphone platform by the end of 2012. The market share, as determined by number of devices, will be greater for Android smartphones than Blackberry, Symbian, iOS (iPhone), or any platforms not yet launched. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by blanu on 2010-08-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
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Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 46% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.
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Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 46% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.
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A 1MW cold-fusion reactor will NOT be demonstrated in October this year. ( 93% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by scav on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-11-03.
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A 1MW cold-fusion reactor will NOT be demonstrated in October this year. ( 93% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by scav on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-11-03.
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'Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year' ( 70% confidence; 38 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-23; known on 2012-09-23; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-08.
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'Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year' ( 70% confidence; 38 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-23; known on 2012-09-23; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-08.
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Android will be the dominant smartphone platform by the end of 2012. The market share, as determined by number of devices, will be greater for Android smartphones than Blackberry, Symbian, iOS (iPhone), or any platforms not yet launched. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by blanu on 2010-08-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
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Greece Will be Bankrupt within 6 months from today ( 26% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by niekjetten on 2011-06-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by procran on 2011-12-01.
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Greece Will be Bankrupt within 6 months from today ( 26% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by niekjetten on 2011-06-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by procran on 2011-12-01.
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“I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.” ( 9% confidence; 26 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.” ( 9% confidence; 26 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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GJP: '#1022 Will the South African government grant the Dalai Lama a visa before 7 October 2011?' ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-10-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-08.
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Patrick Macias will reply within a week. ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-30; known on 2011-10-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-07.
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Steve Jobs's will shall donate 0-10% of his wealth to charity ( 57% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Steve Jobs's will shall donate 0-10% of his wealth to charity ( 57% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Google & Samsung will announce the Nexus Prime and Ice Cream Sandwich at CTIA on 2011-10-11 ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Robert Kosten on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-10-12; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-07.
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Don Delillo for 2011 Literature Nobel ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-07.
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Cormac McCarthy for 2011 Literature Nobel ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-07.
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Philip Roth for 2011 Literature Nobel ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by ka on 2011-10-06.
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Haruki Murakami for 2011 Literature Nobel ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by ka on 2011-10-06.