PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Day 4: pill was modafinil. ( 75% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-14; known on 2011-12-14; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-14.

I will study actuarial science for at least 2 hours tomorrow. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-13; known on 2011-12-15; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-14.

I will study electronics for at least an hour tomorrow. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-13; known on 2011-12-15; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-14.

Within a month, the British High Court will rule in favor of the journal Nature in the libel case brought against it by Professor Mohamed El Naschie. ( 48% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-12-13; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2011-12-14.

The next Humble Bundle accepts Bitcoin for payment. ( 34% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-08-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-12-13.

Day 3: pill was modafinil. ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-13; known on 2011-12-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-13.

I will make an Anki deck for M1 and add at least 20 cards to it today. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-13; known on 2011-12-14; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-13.

I will complete the paperwork for at least one CS practical tomorrow. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-12; known on 2011-12-13; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-13.

I will complete the paperwork for at least 2 CS practicals tomorrow. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-12; known on 2011-12-13; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-13.

I will update my Ubuntu install this week. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-11; known on 2011-12-19; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-13.

I will attend lectures tomorrow. ( 20% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-11; known on 2011-12-12; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-12.

Day 2: pill was modafinil ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-12; known on 2011-12-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-12.

Aakash will complete MW3 by midnight. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-11; known on 2011-12-11; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-12.

I will leave for my parents house by 3:00 today. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-11; known on 2011-12-12; judged right by RobertLumley on 2011-12-12.

Tonight, I will find a raw txt — I mean, a completely legal copy of the book that has been recommended to me. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-11; known on 2011-12-12; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-11.

Dark Souls patch will introduce more bugs that will require another patch ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ultramarinefoil on 2011-11-22; known on 2011-12-10; judged wrong by yurifury on 2011-12-11.

Day 1: pill was modafinil. ( 60% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-10; known on 2011-12-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-10.

I will have completed the information collection exercise by Monday. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-10; known on 2011-12-12; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-10.

Egypt will go throw another war with Isreal ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by ahmedwael on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-10; judged wrong by procran on 2011-12-10.

D-Day Dice will become the top funded Tabletop game on Kickstarter by raising $82,000+ ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by richardbliss on 2011-11-07; known on 2011-12-08; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-08.

WinDirStat will crash or stop responding for 30 minutes on my ~7M+ file scan ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-08; known on 2011-12-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-08.

Tomorrow morning, I will wake up within five minutes of the time I set my alarm for in order to study for my final. ( 85% confidence )

Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-08; known on 2011-12-09; judged right by RobertLumley on 2011-12-08.

“Christopher Hitchens will publicly confess his sins to God, however he finds Him between now and the time of his passing, and accept Christ as his Lord, Savior and pathway to God. He will do this in a meaningful rather than a flippant, facetious or hyp ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-19; known on 2020-01-03; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-16.

“Christopher Hitchens will publicly confess his sins to God, however he finds Him between now and the time of his passing, and accept Christ as his Lord, Savior and pathway to God. He will do this in a meaningful rather than a flippant, facetious or hyp ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-19; known on 2020-01-03; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-16.

One of the comfortable seats in the library Starbucks will be available when I walk in. ( 25% confidence )

Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-07; known on 2011-12-07; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2011-12-07.

One of the comfortable seats in the library Starbucks will be available when I walk in. ( 25% confidence )

Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-07; known on 2011-12-07; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2011-12-07.

this will be the most popular prediction EVER ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Glenn on 2008-08-02; known on 3008-08-02; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-05-17.

this will be the most popular prediction EVER ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Glenn on 2008-08-02; known on 3008-08-02; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-05-17.

this will be the most popular prediction EVER ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Glenn on 2008-08-02; known on 3008-08-02; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-05-17.

this will be the most popular prediction EVER ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Glenn on 2008-08-02; known on 3008-08-02; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-05-17.

I will start studying for the entry exam today. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-06; known on 2011-12-07; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-06.

I will complete all of the chapter 4 exercises in Introduction to JAVA Programming by 2011-11-26. ( 45% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-26; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-06.

I will complete all of the chapter 5 exercises in Introduction to JAVA Programming by 2011-12-03. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-12-03; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-06.

Obama will approve the Keystone XL pipeline project. ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by Øx on 2011-12-05.

lukeprog will receive <50 individual items of feedback through his form in the next month. ( 66% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-05; known on 2011-12-05; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-05.

I will not stick with SWTOR after the beta. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by baslisks on 2011-11-26; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by baslisks on 2011-12-05.

LW: average IQ in survey will be at or above the 98th percentile and thus eligible for Mensa membership. ( 66% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Robert Kosten on 2011-11-01; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-04.

LW: average IQ in survey will be 140-145. ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-11-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-04.

I will start studying for the actuarial entrance exam this week. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-05; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-04.

{__slots__} will be added to NamedConstant before it is first merged to trunk ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-12-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-04.

I will add cards to more than one anki deck today. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-04; known on 2011-12-05; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-04.

I will have done the infomation collection exercise for Electronics by the end of this week. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-05; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-04.

I will get a HD for at least two of my units, and only one credit. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by ultramarinefoil on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-12-05; judged wrong by ultramarinefoil on 2011-12-04.

Fobos-Grunt will launch successfully by December 25, 2011. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2011-12-25; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-03.

Fobos-Grunt will successfully launch and return to Earth by March 1, 2020 ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-03.

lukeprog will offer me a job in the email. ( 65% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-03; known on 2011-12-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-03.

GJP: #1041 Will Italy's Silvio Berlusconi resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, OR otherwise vacate office before 1 January 2012? ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-03.

GJP: #1032 Will the Japanese government formally announce the decision to buy at least 40 new jet fighters by 30 November 2011? ( 45% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-03.

GJP: #1028 Will Moody’s issue a new downgrade of the sovereign debt rating of the Government of Greece between 3 October 2011 and 30 November 2011? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-03.

I will still use Beeminder in a month. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2011-11-03; known on 2011-12-03; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-03.

Statistics

Judged Predictions