PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will finish updating http://os499.github.com/ such that I can start sharing it publicly. ( 60% confidence )

Created by divad12 on 2011-10-21; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by divad12 on 2011-11-01.

I will write a blog post on Khan Academy's new proficiency model that I just shipped by the end of this weekend. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by divad12 on 2011-10-27; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by divad12 on 2011-11-01.

Vettel to win f1 championship ( 97% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Laurablack on 2011-09-26; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-30.

The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )

Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.

There will be a consensus among physicists that the Large Hadron Collider has provided experimental verification for the existence of the Higgs Boson by the end of October 2011. ( 36% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-31.

The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )

Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.

“Normal service on the Maui Pipeline to resume on 28 October 2011” -ipredict ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-10-29; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-31.

A 1MW cold-fusion reactor will NOT be demonstrated in October this year. ( 93% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by scav on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-11-03.

My average weight (measured once everyday) for this week will be at least one pound greater than my average weight for next week. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-21; known on 2011-10-29; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-29.

The St Louis Cardinals will win the World Series ( 47% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Codyz on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-29.

I will have all latework caught-up by Friday ( 40% confidence )

Created by Jach on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-10-28; judged wrong by Jach on 2011-10-29.

Nothing ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by arj on 2011-10-25; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by fergus on 2011-10-28.

iqtest.dk will give me a higher score when I don't answer any questions ( 8% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-27; known on 2011-10-27; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-27.

Erik and I will watch the original version of The Thing today. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-10-27; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-27.

The discussion post http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/842/the_sciencearchist_manifesto/'s comment section will contain a flame war started by someone other than myself by the end of this Friday ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by beo_shaffer on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-10-21; judged wrong by beo_shaffer on 2011-10-27.

Erik and I will watch the original version of The Thing today. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-10-27; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-27.

Erik and I will watch the original version of The Thing today. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-10-27; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-27.

Launch my KA proficiency model change by the end of today (Oct. 25). ( 72% confidence )

Created by divad12 on 2011-10-25; known on 2011-10-26; judged wrong by divad12 on 2011-10-26.

I will eat breakfast at home on Monday, and get to work before 11 am. ( 65% confidence )

Created by divad12 on 2011-10-21; known on 2011-10-24; judged wrong by divad12 on 2011-10-25.

I will complete this week's ai-class and ml-class homework. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by divad12 on 2011-10-22; known on 2011-10-24; judged right by divad12 on 2011-10-25.

SM replied to the pro-libertarian comment posted on his blog ( 20% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-25; known on 2011-10-25; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-25.

I will sleep at 1 am tonight. ( 65% confidence )

Created by divad12 on 2011-10-22; known on 2011-10-23; judged wrong by divad12 on 2011-10-23.

I will sleep at 2 am (in bed) for waking up at 9:10 am on Saturday. ( 40% confidence )

Created by divad12 on 2011-10-21; known on 2011-10-22; judged right by divad12 on 2011-10-23.

No human fatalities will result from the ROSAT reentry. ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-11-30; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-23.

ROSAT will reenter by November 15 ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-11-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-23.

ROSAT will reenter by November 2 ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-11-03; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-23.

I will formally quit Cross Country by the end of the week ( 80% confidence )

Created by Isaac on 2011-10-17; known on 2011-10-21; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-10-22.

I will go to the gym 3 times by Saturday ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Isaac on 2011-10-17; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-10-22.

Harold Camping: “the whole world…will be annihilated together with the whole physical world” ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-10-22.

“the entire universe and planet Earth will be destroyed forever.” —Haubert/Brown ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-22.

I will find a buyer for my car with a blown head gasket for >= $800 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-01-16; judged right by Jach on 2011-10-22.

i will use prediction book tomorrow ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by divad12 on 2011-10-21; known on 2011-10-22; judged right by divad12 on 2011-10-22.

(Note: this bet is for monitoring instrumental rationality and akrasia) I will finish my UCC law quiz and hand it in (late) tomorrow. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbarnes1 on 2011-10-21; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by jbarnes1 on 2011-10-22.

The judge will rule that Julian Assange be extradited to Sweden after hearings in July. ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-07; known on 2011-10-01; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-11-02.

Muammar al-Gaddafi will no longer be the leader of Libya by 31 December 2011 ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-21.

Gaddafi will not be in power in Libya beyond 2011. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by maxdemian on 2011-03-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-21.

Someone will add at least 400 Austrian macroeconomic predictions to predictionbook. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by siodine on 2011-10-20; known on 2011-10-20; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-21.

I will complete Project Euler Problem #1 in the next 7 days. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-10-26; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-20.

My penis will temporary stop responding to sexual stimuli in three days. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-18; known on 2011-10-21; judged wrong by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-20.

I will “flatline”, i.e. my penis will temporary not respond to sexual stimuli due to prolonged abstinence. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-18; known on 2011-10-23; judged wrong by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-20.

'Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year' ( 70% confidence; 38 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-23; known on 2012-09-23; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-08.

'Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year' ( 70% confidence; 38 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-23; known on 2012-09-23; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-08.

I will score 50% or higher on my CPSC 121 midterm ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by joke-away on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-10-19; judged right by joke-away on 2011-10-19.

GJP: #1021 Will the expansion of the European bailout fund be ratified by all 17 Eurozone nations before 1 November 2011? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-02; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-18.

I will go to the gym tomorrow ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Isaac on 2011-10-17; known on 2011-10-18; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-10-18.

I will go to the gym in the next 30 minutes ( 80% confidence )

Created by Isaac on 2011-10-17; known on 2011-10-17; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-10-18.

GJP: #1021 Will the expansion of the European bailout fund be ratified by all 17 Eurozone nations before 1 November 2011? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-02; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-18.

I will record a sub 20 minute time in the first ABC bi that I do http://goo.gl/BCmJt ( 15% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-10-10; known on 2011-10-14; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-10-17.

My next full practice SAT score will be over 2050 ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Isaac on 2011-10-01; known on 2011-10-15; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-10-17.

The Texas Rangers will win the ALCS ( 90% confidence )

Created by Codyz on 2011-10-13; known on 2011-10-20; judged right by Codyz on 2011-10-16.

Statistics

Judged Predictions