By november 8th, I will have submitted a (new) graduate school application. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-09; known on 2011-11-08; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2011-11-05.

The people who join this prediction until friday will bet 45% to 55% on average. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Metus on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-05; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-11-05.

Three people will join this prediction until friday. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Metus on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-05; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-11-05.

The average of this bet will be 90% to 100% until friday. ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Metus on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-05; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-05.

Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 16% confidence; 27 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2014-01-01.

Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 16% confidence; 27 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2014-01-01.

“Microsoft will be have the largest market capitalization of any publicly traded company in the world by 2015.” ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

Gold will be $2000 by Jan 2012 ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by eduffy on 2011-11-03; known on 2012-01-16; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-16.

The EU will essentially break up into groups of countries with different worldviews within the next 3 years. Prediction date 2nd November, 2011. ( 10% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Fledi on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by mad on 2014-11-02.

Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 16% confidence; 27 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2014-01-01.

Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 16% confidence; 27 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2014-01-01.

“Microsoft will be have the largest market capitalization of any publicly traded company in the world by 2015.” ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

President Barak Obama will be re-elected, the Democrats will retain the Senate, and retake the House of Representatives. This will not prevent a great deal of obstructionism to anything he wants to get passed, particularly in the Senate. ( 30% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by MuscleCBT on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-11; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.

The next wave of internet bubbles will be based around services that harvest, collate and compute “Human meta data”. Most of which will come from Smart phone and Social Networking data plus real time obscure meta data will come from human input. ( 90% confidence; 7 comments )

Created by senectus on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2012-12-26.

The EU will essentially break up into groups of countries with different worldviews within the next 3 years. Prediction date 2nd November, 2011. ( 10% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Fledi on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by mad on 2014-11-02.

The EU will essentially break up into groups of countries with different worldviews within the next 3 years. Prediction date 2nd November, 2011. ( 10% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Fledi on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by mad on 2014-11-02.

Holographic television will be widely available by 2021. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2021-11-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-11-01.

Holographic television will be widely available by 2021. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2021-11-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-11-01.

Gold will be $2000 by Jan 2012 ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by eduffy on 2011-11-03; known on 2012-01-16; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-16.

President Barak Obama will be re-elected, the Democrats will retain the Senate, and retake the House of Representatives. This will not prevent a great deal of obstructionism to anything he wants to get passed, particularly in the Senate. ( 30% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by MuscleCBT on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-11; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.

BMNDR will nontrivially improve my study habits by October 31st. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Codyz on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by Codyz on 2011-11-04.

By December 2011 at least one of Ireland, Portugal, Spain, or Italy will leave the Euro —Capitol Commentary ( 19% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-01.

By December 2011 at least one of Ireland, Portugal, Spain, or Italy will leave the Euro —Capitol Commentary ( 19% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-01.

CERN Faster than light neutrinos will be confirmed. and there will be new unified theories expanding Einstein's general relativity theory with a limit on some other measure rather than speed of light. ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by anandjeyahar on 2011-10-09; known on 2026-10-09; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-31.

CERN Faster than light neutrinos will be confirmed. and there will be new unified theories expanding Einstein's general relativity theory with a limit on some other measure rather than speed of light. ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by anandjeyahar on 2011-10-09; known on 2026-10-09; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-31.

There will be strong indications of extrasolar life by 2016. ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2016-01-01.

There will be strong indications of extrasolar life by 2016. ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2016-01-01.

The Doctor (from Doctor Who) will exceed the usual regeneration limit via genetic looms, like the Other is rumored to have done. ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2011-09-19; known on 2013-10-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2013-12-26.

The Doctor (from Doctor Who) will exceed the usual regeneration limit via genetic looms, like the Other is rumored to have done. ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2011-09-19; known on 2013-10-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2013-12-26.

GJP: #1029 Will any of the 20 jailed Bahraini medical workers be released by 1 November 2011? ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-02.

GJP: #1020 Will peace talks between Israel and Palestine formally resume at some point between 3 October 2011 and 1 November 2011? ( 25% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-02.

The Irish Central Bank has forecast that the Irish economy will contract by almost 7% this year. It predicts that the downturn in activity is set to continue next year with a further contraction of 3%. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2011-11-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-01.

GJP: #1031 Will the U.S. Congress pass a joint resolution of disapproval in October 2011 concerning the proposed $5+ billion F-16 fleet upgrade deal with Taiwan? ( 30% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-01.

GJP: #1030 Will the UN Security Council pass a measure/resolution concerning Syria in October 2011? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-01.

Anderson Cooper will come out on his daytime talk show. ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2011-11-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-01.

The webcomic Angels 2200 will have a new full page update before the end of October. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by beo_shaffer on 2011-10-08; known on 2011-11-01; judged wrong by beo_shaffer on 2011-11-01.