None of the students with extra time will use all their extra time. ( 75% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-02; known on 2011-12-02; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-02.

Greece Will be Bankrupt within 6 months from today ( 26% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by niekjetten on 2011-06-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by procran on 2011-12-01.

Facebook will be less visitors in 2011 ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Laus_CB on 2011-01-04; known on 2011-11-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-01.

By the end of this month, the Russian Phobos-Grunt interplanetary probe will be destroyed. ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-01.

By December 2011 at least one of Ireland, Portugal, Spain, or Italy will leave the Euro —Capitol Commentary ( 19% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-01.

Chrome will ship with the initial release of Android “Ice Cream Sandwich” ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-01.

I will judge Skyrim to be better than Morrowind by the end of November. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Isaac on 2011-11-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-12-01.

I will add cards to more than one Anki deck today. ( 45% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-11-30.

I will finish Seneca 84 tonight ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Codyz on 2011-11-28; known on 2011-11-29; judged wrong by Codyz on 2011-11-28.

I will start studying for the Institute of Actuaries' entry exam this week. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2011-11-28; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-11-27.

I will be up-to-date on ML class by next weekend ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by roshni on 2011-11-18; known on 2011-11-27; judged wrong by roshni on 2011-11-27.

I will read “Thinking, Fast and Slow” by Daniel Kahneman within the next 4 weeks. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-25; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-27.

We will get through the second unit of this week's AI class lectures tomorrow ( 30% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-25; known on 2011-11-26; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-11-26.

We will get through the first unit of this week's AI class lectures ( 70% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-25; known on 2011-11-26; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-11-26.

On time: at the door by 8am tomorrow ( 70% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-25; known on 2011-11-26; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-11-26.

Dark Souls: Capra Demon dead by tonight ( 80% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-25; known on 2011-11-25; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-11-26.

Dark Souls: Hellkite Dragon dead by tonight ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-25; known on 2011-11-25; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-11-26.

I will be using PredictionBook for personal productivity goals at least weekly for a month. ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by divad12 on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-11-23; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-11-24.

Google Knol's shutdown will leave the knols' content publicly accessible at some URL ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-23.

Google Knol will be shutdown in 2016 ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-22.

Google Knol will be shutdown in 2011 ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-13; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-22.

Google Knol will be shutdown in 2013 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-13; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-22.

Google Knol will be shutdown in 2014 ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-13; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-22.

US Supercommittee to publish >=$1.5t deficit reduction by midnight 23 November 2011 ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-19; known on 2011-11-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-22.

I will miss the 3:13pm bus ( 30% confidence )

Created by ultramarinefoil on 2011-11-22; known on 2011-11-22; judged wrong by ultramarinefoil on 2011-11-22.

Correctly answer midterm question 15 ( 80% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-21; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-11-22.