PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will get ai-class homework 5.2 mostly right (3 out of 4 rows completely right) ( 90% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-14; known on 2011-11-16; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-17.

I will get ai-class homework question 5.3 right (yes/no on a grid of 40 squares testing if you following a simple policy correctly) ( 80% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-14; known on 2011-11-16; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-17.

I will get ai-class homework question 5.3 mostly right (30/40) ( 99% confidence )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-14; known on 2011-11-16; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-17.

We will get a bid for 1.9 or better today ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by fnedrik on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-15; judged wrong by fnedrik on 2011-11-16.

30 new speaker invitations for Singularity Summit 2012 will be written by the end of Monday, Nov. 14th. ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by lukeprog on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-11-15; judged right by lukeprog on 2011-11-15.

The recent deployment will have fixed the domain name in Prediction Book emails ( 95% confidence; 10 comments )

Created by Wes on 2011-11-14; known on 2011-11-14; judged right by Wes on 2011-11-14.

I will complete Project Euler Problem #2 within the next 14 days. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-31; known on 2011-11-14; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-14.

I will schedule an appointment to visit a doctor by the end of this week. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2011-11-12; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-14.

I will score above an 85 on my USH test ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Isaac on 2011-10-30; known on 2011-11-13; judged right by Isaac on 2011-11-13.

LoZ: Skyward Sword will receive an IGN score of 9.8/10 or higher ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jach on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-11-25; judged right by kpreid on 2011-11-13.

Obama will be favored to win the election by Intrade and the Iowa Electronic Markets (both vote share and winner take all) within a few days of tonight's Republican debate. ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-11-17; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-13.

Hypothes.is kickstarter project gets fully funded (see http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/dwhly/1239089754) ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-11-06; known on 2011-11-13; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-13.

Hypothes.is kickstarter project gets fully funded (see http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/dwhly/1239089754) ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-11-06; known on 2011-11-13; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-13.

Cain Velasquez will defeat Junior Dos Santos in their fight on November, 12th. ( 62% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2011-11-12; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-13.

Ben Henderson will defeat Clay Guida in their fight on November, 12th. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2011-11-12; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-13.

Dustin Poirier will defeat Pablo Garza in their fight on November, 12th. ( 76% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2011-11-12; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-13.

Ricardo Lamas will defeat Cub Swanson in their fight on November, 12th. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2011-11-12; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-13.

DaMarques Johnson will defeat Clay Harvison in their fight on November, 12th. ( 76% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2011-11-12; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-13.

The kidnappings in Sanderson’s “The Alloy of Law” will turn out to be in order to construct a captive breeding program to make Mistborn ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-13.

TS will say e plans to undertake a PhD in immunology ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-11-12; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-13.

GJP: #1042 Will Lucas Papademos be the next Prime Minister of Greece? ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-01-02; judged right by gwern on 2011-11-13.

I won't sleep tonight ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-11-12; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-13.

Luke Muehlhauser will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-12.

“Silvio Berlusconi to announce his resignation before midnight ET 30 Nov 2011” —Intrade ( 67% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12.

GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1005: Will Daniel Ortega win another term as President of Nicaragua during the late 2011 elections? ( 65% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-12-30; judged right by gwern on 2011-11-10.

“Joe Paterno to announce his resignation before midnight ET 30 Nov 2011” —Intrade ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-11-10.

cousin_it is the other vladimir ( 70% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by u_ on 2011-08-18; known on 2011-08-18; judged right by gwern on 2011-11-17.

I will make more changes to predictionbook that will be included in the official repo, where inclusion happens before 2013-01-01 UTC ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-10.

I will still use Beeminder in a week. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2011-11-03; known on 2011-11-10; judged right by muflax on 2011-11-09.

I will get over a 79 on my Biology test ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Isaac on 2011-10-30; known on 2011-11-13; judged right by Isaac on 2011-11-09.

Hacknotifier.com will get >10k visits in the next 30 days. ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by rahul on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-11-10; judged right by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-11-09.

CERN Faster than light neutrinos will be confirmed. and there will be new unified theories expanding Einstein's general relativity theory with a limit on some other measure rather than speed of light. ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by anandjeyahar on 2011-10-09; known on 2026-10-09; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-31.

CERN Faster than light neutrinos will be confirmed. and there will be new unified theories expanding Einstein's general relativity theory with a limit on some other measure rather than speed of light. ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by anandjeyahar on 2011-10-09; known on 2026-10-09; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-31.

In Sanderson's “Allow of Law” it will turn out that either Marasi or Steris is (or becomes) a full Mistborn or a full Feruchemist. ( 8% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-10; known on 2011-11-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-08.

The kidnappings in Sanderson's “The Alloy of Law” will turn out to be in order to make hemalurgic spikes from the victims. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-08.

'Conrad Murray to be found guilty of involuntary manslaughter' [of Michael Jackson] ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-03; known on 2012-10-03; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-11-08.

I will read at least a third of Getting Things Done before 2012 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-31; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-07.

Dexter season 6: Brother Sam dies. ( 60% confidence )

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged right by muflax on 2011-11-07.

Dexter season 6: Brother Sam deconverts. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-11-07.

The Baltimore Ravens will lose to the Pittsburgh Steelers on 2011-11-06. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by hackedtobits on 2011-11-04; known on 2011-11-07; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2011-11-07.

The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )

Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.

The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )

Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.

The next wave of internet bubbles will be based around services that harvest, collate and compute “Human meta data”. Most of which will come from Smart phone and Social Networking data plus real time obscure meta data will come from human input. ( 90% confidence; 7 comments )

Created by senectus on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2012-12-26.

Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 16% confidence; 27 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2014-01-01.

The next wave of internet bubbles will be based around services that harvest, collate and compute “Human meta data”. Most of which will come from Smart phone and Social Networking data plus real time obscure meta data will come from human input. ( 90% confidence; 7 comments )

Created by senectus on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2012-12-26.

The next wave of internet bubbles will be based around services that harvest, collate and compute “Human meta data”. Most of which will come from Smart phone and Social Networking data plus real time obscure meta data will come from human input. ( 90% confidence; 7 comments )

Created by senectus on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2012-12-26.

Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 16% confidence; 27 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2014-01-01.

Five people will join this prediction until friday. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Metus on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-05.

Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 16% confidence; 27 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2014-01-01.

Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 16% confidence; 27 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2014-01-01.

Statistics

Judged Predictions