PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Akshay's file produces no errors on the first run. ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.

Akshay finds his lab manual in his bag. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.

I will complete at least two SQL practicals tomorrow. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-21; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.

Succeed on the TOVP tender ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-24; known on 2011-12-20; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-12-22.

MC will order modafinil within one month ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-12-12; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-12-22.

Day 7: pill was modafinil. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-21; known on 2011-12-21; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-21.

I will try out the binary file program today. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-21; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-21.

I will complete Project Euler #5 within the next 7 hours. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2011-12-22; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21.

I will get over an 80 on my USH test I took last week ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Isaac on 2011-12-11; known on 2011-12-18; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-12-20.

Harbinger1 is a genuine user but unfamiliar with LessWrong tropes ( 64% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-17; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-20.

Harbinger1 will be generally accepted to be a troll by the PB community ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-20.

The Bitcoin price will hit 4 $/฿ in December 2011. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by Mqrius on 2011-12-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Mqrius on 2011-12-20.

Day 6: pill was modafinil. ( 65% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-20; known on 2011-12-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-20.

GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1008: By 31 December 2011, will the World Trade Organization General Council or Ministerial Conference approve the “accession package” for WTO membership for Russia? ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-12-30; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-19.

I will not officially fail https://www.beeminder.com/shokwave/goals/pbook before 2012 ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.

Day 5: pill was modafinil. ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-19; known on 2011-12-19; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-19.

North Korea's President Kim Jong-il's goal is to stabilize it's position in the world before he announces his resignation and appoints his 26 year old son to the presidency. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by CRNewsReports© on 2009-06-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-19.

'Kim Jong Il steps down or dies this year' —scav ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-19.

'Kim Jong Il steps down or dies this year' —scav ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-19.

Dexter season 6: Deb and Dex kiss. ( 15% confidence )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-12; known on 2011-12-21; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.

Dexter season 6: a regular dies. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-12; known on 2011-12-21; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.

Dexter season 6: Louis kills Travis. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-12; known on 2011-12-21; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.

Dexter season 6: Deb will find out (or already knows) that Dexter is a killer. ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-11-14; known on 2011-12-18; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-19.

Dexter season 6: Travis Marshall is not the final villain. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.

Dexter season 6: lab girl is (specifically) a Dexter fangirl. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.

Dexter season 6: lab girl is a serial killer. ( 15% confidence )

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.

Dexter season 6: lab girl is more than a thief. ( 65% confidence )

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.

GJP: #1044 Will the United Kingdom's Tehran embassy officially reopen by 29 February 2012? ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05.

GJP: #1045 Will a trial for Saif al-Islam Gaddafi begin in any venue by 31 March 2012? ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-04-03.

A law that creates some form of Internet blacklist which requires search engines or ISPs to block specific sites will be passed in the USA before 2014 ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by saturn on 2011-12-13; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by saturn on 2014-01-04.

France to lose AAA credit rating before midnight ET 30 Jun 2012 —Intrade ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-08; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-13.

At least one current member will drop out of the Euro. ( 22% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Matt Newport on 2010-06-11; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by faws on 2011-12-17.

France to lose AAA credit rating before midnight ET 30 Jun 2012 —Intrade ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-08; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-13.

A law that creates some form of Internet blacklist which requires search engines or ISPs to block specific sites will be passed in the USA before 2014 ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by saturn on 2011-12-13; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by saturn on 2014-01-04.

GJP: #1045 Will a trial for Saif al-Islam Gaddafi begin in any venue by 31 March 2012? ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-04-03.

GJP: #1044 Will the United Kingdom's Tehran embassy officially reopen by 29 February 2012? ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05.

I will have share up and running today. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-16; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-16.

I will study actuarial science for at least two hours today. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-16; known on 2011-12-17; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-16.

I will study Electronics for at least an hour today. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-16; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-16.

I will have LWT up and running today. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-16; known on 2011-12-17; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-16.

“Christopher Hitchens will publicly confess his sins to God, however he finds Him between now and the time of his passing, and accept Christ as his Lord, Savior and pathway to God. He will do this in a meaningful rather than a flippant, facetious or hyp ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-19; known on 2020-01-03; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-16.

Bryan Caplan, or a co-blogger, will write a post on EconLog defending his use of the term “real world” to refer to non-academia in the next two weeks. ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-14; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-12-15.

I will enjoy Sherlock Holmes tonight. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-15; known on 2011-12-16; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-15.

I will complete the paperwork for at least 2 CS practicals tomorrow. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-14; known on 2011-12-15; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-15.

Tomorrow is results day. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-14; known on 2011-12-15; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-15.

My practice SAT scores will be high enough that I will be able to confidently take it in January ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Isaac on 2011-10-01; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Isaac on 2011-12-15.

My practice SAT scores will be high enough that I will be able to confidently take it in January ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Isaac on 2011-10-01; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Isaac on 2011-12-15.

My practice SAT scores will be high enough that I will be able to confidently take it in January ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Isaac on 2011-10-01; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Isaac on 2011-12-15.

GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1007: Will there be a lethal confrontation involving government forces in the South China Sea or East China Sea by 31 December 2011? ( 7% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-14.

I will add at least 20 cards to my M1 deck today. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-14; known on 2011-12-15; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-14.

Statistics

Judged Predictions