PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

The Terrafugia company will begin selling the Transition flying car to private individuals as a street-legal and air-legal vehicle in the United States by the end of 2011. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by hmadison on 2010-08-11; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“BP to announce before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy [in US]” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“BP to enter bankruptcy in the United Kingdom before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“Feb 2012 (G12) Gold Futures to close ON or ABOVE 1800 on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“California state government will dissolve in default.” ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“Andy Coulson to be charged with any criminal offence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

“Rebekah Brooks to be charged with any criminal offence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

Greek will default / there will be a credit event relating to greek govt bonds ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Michael Stevens on 2011-06-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.

Stranger will claim to live in London. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-31; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-31.

GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1003: Will Serbia be officially granted EU candidacy by 31 December 2011? ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-30.

GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1006: Will Italy restructure or default on its debt by 31 December 2011? ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-30.

“Bird Flu (H5N1) to be confirmed in the USA before midnight ET on 30 Dec 2011” ( 2% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-30.

“Bird Flu (H5N1) to be confirmed in the USA before midnight ET on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-30.

GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1001: Will the Six-Party talks (among the US, North Korea, South Korea, Russia, China, and Japan) formally resume in 2011? ( 5% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-30.

I will have finished all (or all but the last two) Computer Science practicals by the end of this year. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-30; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.

I will have rewatched the Evangelion movies by the end of this year. ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.

I will brainstorm ideas for anything for the first 5-10 minutes after I wake up in the mornings, and record them all. I will do this every day for at least 1 month. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by divad12 on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-12-15; judged right by divad12 on 2012-01-07.

Stranger will dc. ( 50% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.

Stranger will dc. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.

Stranger is female. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.

Stanger will dc. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.

Stranger will dc. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.

Stranger will dc. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.

Stranger will dc. ( 95% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.

Correlation between C1 marks and S1 marks will be > 0.7 ( 80% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.

Person I'm chatting with is an engineer/engineering student from India. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-28; known on 2011-12-28; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-28.

Person I'm chatting with is a girl. ( 10% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-28; known on 2011-12-28; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-28.

Will clear third round of Code Junkie. ( 0% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-27.

Will clear second round of Code Junkie. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-27.

Will clear first round of Code Junkie. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-28; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-27.

Pauleen turns out to be shorter than me. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-27; known on 2011-12-27; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-27.

Netflix's stock price will be lower next year than today. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-27; known on 2011-12-27; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-27.

Retain the 1:45 slot for Mindspark. Or get a slot after 12:30. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-26; known on 2011-12-26; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-26.

I will have completed the first 19 CS-2 practicals by the end of this year. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-11; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-26.

It will take Jonathan longer than 30 minutes to bike home. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Lemmih on 2011-12-26; known on 2011-12-26; judged wrong by Lemmih on 2011-12-26.

Netflix's stock price will be lower next year than today. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-27; known on 2011-12-27; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-27.

Day 8: pill was modafinil. ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-25; known on 2011-12-25; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-25.

I will have completed my Electronics report by the end of this week. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-21; known on 2011-12-26; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-25.

The correlation between S1 marks and attendence will be > 0.6 ( 60% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-24; known on 2011-12-24; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-24.

YF will order modafinil within a month. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by shokwave on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-12-12; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-12-24.

Will try the binary filehandling program out today. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-23; known on 2011-12-24; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-23.

Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 46% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.

I will have changed Chrome's language to Japanese by the end of this week. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-26; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.

I will add at least 40 cards to my Maths/Stats/Electronics decks today. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-23; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.

I will try out the binary file program today. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-23; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.

I will do part of the paperwork for the 19th CS practical today. ( 10% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.

I will edit my keyboard layout and build it today. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-23; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.

Call was from the Mindspark guys. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-23; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.

Akshay's file produces no errors on the first run. ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.

Statistics

Judged Predictions