PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Some form of certification to people immune to coronavirus will be issued in Spain (either for people vaccinated or recovered) ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sortega on 2020-04-06; known on 2021-06-16; judged right by sortega on 2021-04-16.

Will take the US [at least] until May to get back under 1000 deaths a day again ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by qznc on 2020-04-06; known on 2020-05-01; judged right by qznc on 2020-05-01.

80,000 COVID-19 deaths in U.S. by July ( 80% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by qznc on 2020-04-06; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2020-06-12.

Boris Johnson dies by end of April 2020 (due to Coronavirus) ( 11% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-06; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-05-01.

Michael F. Roman will be fired as ceo of 3M ( 30% confidence )

Created by Rsfinley23 on 2020-04-04; known on 2020-05-15.

I will finish the BOM before general conference ( 85% confidence )

Created by credunkist on 2020-04-03; known on 2020-04-04; judged right by credunkist on 2020-04-05.

US deaths attributed to covid19 will be in the range 80,000 to 500,000 by next April. ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by credunkist on 2020-04-03; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-04-18.

[Geopolitics] Venezuelan regime change (defined as Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) (born 23 November 1962) not being President of Venezuela) within one year ( 23% confidence; 23 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by two2thehead on 2020-04-03; known on 2021-04-03; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2021-04-04.

Total deaths due to coronavirus in the Netherlands will go over >10000 by the end of April. ( 16% confidence; 15 wagers )

Created by Stucwerk on 2020-04-01; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by Stucwerk on 2020-05-01.

Total deaths due to coronavirus in the Netherlands will go over >5000 by the end of April. ( 61% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Stucwerk on 2020-04-01; known on 2020-05-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-20.

Total deaths due to coronavirus in the Netherlands will go over >3000 by the end of April. ( 90% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Stucwerk on 2020-04-01; known on 2020-05-01; judged right by Stucwerk on 2020-04-18.

San Francisco will extend the shelter-in-place order beyond May 3rd ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-04-01; known on 2020-05-04; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-05-02.

At least one G20 nation (or sub-national territory of population > 1m) will re-impose at least one COVID-19 restriction after its relaxation in calendar 2020 ( 86% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Sashoir on 2020-03-31; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.

There will be at least 160.000 confirmed cases of Coronavirus in China on July 1, 2020. ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sty.silver on 2020-03-30; known on 2020-07-04; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-07-04.

Germany makes face masks mandatory (at least in certain places) in April ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by qznc on 2020-03-30; known on 2020-05-01; judged right by qznc on 2020-05-01.

There will be no state- or nation-wide McDonald’s closures (other than closure of the dining area) due to COVID-19 in Australia in 2020 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sjy on 2020-03-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by sjy on 2021-01-03.

estado de excepcion lo quitarán el 1 de abril 2020 ( 75% confidence )

Created by raulquan on 2020-03-28; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by raulquan on 2020-04-01.

No OECD nation will have a lockdown (orders which prevent people from attending work, in the absence of any evidence of illness) in place by the end of 2020 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sjy on 2020-03-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sjy on 2021-01-03.

Personal – My shopping order arriving 2020-03-29 arrives with at least two packets of pasta of any variety. ( 65% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-28; known on 2020-03-29; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-04-01.

Personal – My shopping order arriving 2020-03-29 arrives with at least 4 bottles of any variety of cola from the order. Dr Pepper counts. ( 70% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-28; known on 2020-03-29; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-04-01.

Politics, UK – UK government announces, before the end of April, it will bring forward payments under “(COVID-19) Self-employment Income Support Scheme” to earlier than June, or introduce an additional scheme helping the self-employed. ( 38% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-28; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-01.

Politics, UK – Government introduces a government managed rationing system for any consumer good before end of April. ( 15% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-28; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-01.

Health, UK – UK government amends lockdown rules to put a specific numeric upper limit on distance travelled from home during exercise before end of April, and the limit is strictly less than 10 miles. ( 25% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-28; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-01.

Health, UK – UK government amends lockdown rules to put a specific numeric upper limit on distance travelled from home during exercise before end of April. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-28; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-01.

U.S. 10yr Treasury yield dips below 0.5% in second quarter of 2020 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-27; known on 2020-06-30; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-06-30.

S&P 500 index dips below 2000 in year of 2020 ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-27; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.

India – Coranavirus positive cases at 10000 by 1st April, 2020 ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by atharva117 on 2020-03-25; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by nortriptyline2 on 2020-04-03.

Despite the lockdown in India, COVID-19 cases will continue to rise for another 2 weeks. The lockdown will be extended to the end of April. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by areyouhappy on 2020-03-25; known on 2020-04-08; judged right by areyouhappy on 2020-04-09.

Face masks as fashion accessoir becomes a thing this year ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by qznc on 2020-03-25; known on 2020-12-30; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-01.

The day on day increase people tested positive for COVID19 in South Africa will on average be > 20% at least until 100,000 people have tested positive ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by moyamo on 2020-03-24; known on 2020-04-20; judged wrong by moyamo on 2020-04-21.

12-17% of the Senate will test positive for corona by April 1st ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by daveisright on 2020-03-24; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-04-11.

San Francisco will extend the shelter-in-place order beyond April 7th ( 96% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-03-23; known on 2020-04-08; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-04-03.

Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020 ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by sty.silver on 2020-03-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.

Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020 ( 4% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sjy on 2020-03-22; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.

Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020 ( 28% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sjy on 2020-03-22; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.

Gamestop will reopen before the end of the year ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by daveisright on 2020-03-22; known on 2020-12-31.

Business, UK – Tesco continue to offer online delivery to the general public, without restrictions on who qualifies, but on checking on the 31st of March, there are no available slots on or before the 14th of April. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-21; known on 2020-03-31; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-04-01.

Business, UK – Tesco cease to offer online delivery to the general public, without restrictions on who qualifies, by end of March. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-21; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-04-01.

Politics, UK – Government says restaurants may reopen for sit-in service before end of April. ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-21; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-01.

World – Opening of Olympic Games delayed beyond end of July. ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-21; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by wizzwizz4 on 2020-04-02.

Politics, UK – UK government announces additional measures to support the self-employed by deadline. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-21; known on 2020-03-28; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-03-28.

Coronavirus epidemic in US peaks before June 2020 ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by erstwhile on 2020-03-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-07.

Triplebyte will no longer exist as a company on August 20 2021, and if sold will have sold for less than $48.1M. ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by enolan on 2020-03-21; known on 2021-08-20; judged wrong by enolan on 2021-08-21.

More than 1000 Corona deaths in the Netherlands in March ( 36% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Stucwerk on 2020-03-20; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by Stucwerk on 2020-03-31.

Varun Grover thinks “No democracies, no dissent, and a world much like JG Ballard's High Rise” link: https://twitter.com/varungrover/status/1240970794001301504 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by volis on 2020-03-20; known on 2030-01-01.

< 35M coronavirus deaths ( 86% confidence; 13 wagers )

Created by kjaques on 2020-03-19; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by kjaques on 2020-07-31.

<2M coronavirus deaths. ( 25% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by kjaques on 2020-03-19; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by kjaques on 2020-07-31.

On March 26th 2020 the states of California, Pennsylvania, Washington, Ohio, and Maryland will be quarantined, with smaller areas within on fenced lock down. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by AgentAri on 2020-03-19; known on 2020-03-27; judged wrong by kuudes on 2020-03-29.

German schools open again after easter holidays ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by qznc on 2020-03-18; known on 2020-04-18; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-04-18.

Army corps of engineers will build additional hospitals/testing around NYC/NJ ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by daveisright on 2020-03-17; known on 2020-04-03.

More than 100 Corona deaths in the Netherlands in March ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Stucwerk on 2020-03-16; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-03-21.

More than 300,000 people will die from corona in the US ( 70% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by daveisright on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-10-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.

Trump has the coronavirus ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-03-16; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-03-15.

Italy has less than 100.000 COVID-19 cases by April ( 41% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-04-03.

World – Will one or more cases of COVID-19 be described as plausible or likely to have occurred in North Korea in the BBC by end of month March. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-04-01.

Total COVID-19 deaths in South Korea will be less than 100 by August ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qznc on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by nortriptyline2 on 2020-04-03.

Total COVID-19 deaths in China will be less than 4000 by August. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-08-01.

University of Washington Seattle campus cancels at least 10% of its scheduled classes for spring quarter entirely within the first two weeks of scheduled classes. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Tumblewood on 2020-03-10; known on 2020-04-15; judged wrong by Tumblewood on 2020-04-08.

SPX reaches 4000 by the end of 2021 ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-10; known on 2021-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2021-10-01.

The Super Mario Bros. Any% record will be above 4:55:000 on 31st December 2022. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by The_Offwo on 2020-03-09; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by The_Offwo on 2021-04-20.

LBMA gold price reaches $1800/oz in 2020 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-08; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.

Fed Fund Rate range will be in 0-25bps after July FOMC meeting. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-08; known on 2020-07-30; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-03-21.

Federal Reserve cuts Fed Fund Rate range to 0-25bps by end of 2020 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-08; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by batemancapital on 2020-03-21.

The Masked Singer season 3 Turtle is Nick Jonas ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Ianharrison on 2020-03-08; known on 2020-05-15.

The Masked Singer season 3 Kangaroo is Iggy Izalia ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Ianharrison on 2020-03-08; known on 2020-05-15.

The masked singer season 3 kitty is Maisie Williams ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Ianharrison on 2020-03-08; known on 2020-06-15.

Politics, US – SCOTUS upholds the fifth circuit's judgement in June Medical Services v. Russo. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-06; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-29.

Politics, US – In deciding June Medical Services v. Russo, SCOTUS explicitly overrules its ruling in Whole Women’s Health v. Hellerstedt, declaring it should have been decided otherwise. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-06; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-29.

[For coronavirus 2019] Mortality rate of total pop in America will be under .01% by 2021. ( 31% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by lazarus on 2020-03-05; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-23.

[For coronavirus 2019] Fear will subside by June 15th, 2020. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by lazarus on 2020-03-05; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-18.

[For coronavirus 2019] most danger will be gone by June 15th, 2020. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by lazarus on 2020-03-05; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-23.

Over 50 Australians die from COVID-19 by 30 June 2020, as reported by the Department of Health ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by sjy on 2020-03-02; known on 2020-06-30; judged right by sjy on 2020-05-17.

A hole will be drilled down to Earth's mantle by 2090. ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2090-01-01.

Fully artificial kidney will be publicly available by 2042. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2042-01-01.

A male birth control pill will be commercially available in the US or EU by 2045. ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.

Level 5 self-driving air vehicles will be available by 2030. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.

Level 5 autonomous cars will be commercially available by 2042. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2042-01-01.

Level 4 autonomous cars will be commercially available by 2036. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2036-01-01.

Level 3 autonomous cars will be commercially available by 2030. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.

Health, UK – Government issues general advice to cancel all events over a certain size at any point before deadline. Still counts if there are provisos like “where possible” or “unless unavoidable” attached. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-29; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-03-28.

Politics – Either the US or the Taliban have declared the deal of end of February 2020 as no longer in effect by deadline. Complaints which do not amount to announcing the failure/cancellation/own intent to indefinitely renege on the deal do not qualify. ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-29; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-18.

Health, UK – COVID-2019 cases in the UK exceed 1000 by deadline. ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-29; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-04-01.

Effective Altruism – EA Global 2020 in SF is rescheduled to start on a date other than the 20th of March 2020 or cancelled. ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-29; known on 2020-03-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-03-14.

Politics, US – Michael Bloomberg wins more total delegates in the elections held on March 3, 2020 than are won by either Joe Biden or Pete Buttigieg individually. ( 33% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-28; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-03-05.

Health – Before the end of 2024 at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory. ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-28; known in 9 days.

10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by June 1, 2020 ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by suitecake on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by suitecake on 2020-03-21.

10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by May 1, 2020 ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by suitecake on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-05-01; judged right by suitecake on 2020-03-21.

10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by April 1, 2020 ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by suitecake on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by suitecake on 2020-03-21.

2020 California summer crops will fail (<= 75% of [<=$28.5 billion] 2018 harvest income according to USDA). ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by EnergyParade on 2020-02-26; known on 2021-04-15.

The 2020 Olympics will not be cancelled ( 53% confidence; 13 wagers )

Created by gurgus on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-07-24; judged right by gurgus on 2021-07-19.

[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] December ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.

[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] November ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )