PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

The owner of emmayouarenext.com will release nude photos of Emma Watson when the countdown expires. ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Taymon on 2014-09-23; known on 2014-09-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06.

A will weigh more than me tomorrow ( 70% confidence )

Created by splorridge on 2016-10-04; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-06.

A's BMI based on tomorrow's measurements will be greater than mine ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2016-10-04; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-06.

J will come into work tomorrow ( 92% confidence )

Created by splorridge on 2016-10-04; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-06.

I will come into work tomorrow ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2016-10-04; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-06.

I will still be employed at my current job one year after my start date. ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-12-28; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-10-05.

Trump's polling relative to Clinton's will improve if/when they have a debate. ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by Bound_Up on 2016-07-06; known on 2016-10-05; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-10-05.

I will weigh more tomorrow than I did today ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2016-10-04; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-05.

I'll be free to meet with Andrew between 5 and 9 tomorrow. ( 90% confidence )

Created by EliTyre on 2016-10-03; known on 2016-10-04; judged right by EliTyre on 2016-10-04.

I will get 7 catches of seven balls this year ( 26% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by splorridge on 2016-08-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-04.

On Monday I will successfully bench 187.5 pounds for 3 sets of 3 reps. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-02; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-03.

On Monday I will successfully squat 315 pounds for 5 reps. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-02; known on 2016-10-05; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-03.

New Ghostbusters movie will make a profit ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-22; known on 2018-07-18; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-03.

Conditional on a Labour leadership election being called and conditional on Jeremy Corbyn being on the ballot, Corbyn will win ( 79% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-03.

Owen Smith will be the next Labour leader. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2016-07-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-10-03.

[UNSONG] The Visitor in the Ark is Sarah the Laptop ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-07-15; known on 2016-12-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-10-03.

[UNSONG] The Visitor in the Ark is Sarah the Laptop and she wants the body of Sarah Michelle Gellar ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-07-15; known on 2016-12-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-10-03.

There will be no more juvenile seagulls around the garden by end of August. ( 20% confidence )

Created by blackRust on 2016-08-02; known on 2016-08-31; judged wrong by blackRust on 2016-10-02.

There will be no more juvenile seagulls around the garden by end of September ( 50% confidence )

Created by blackRust on 2016-07-24; known on 2016-09-30; judged right by blackRust on 2016-10-02.

Mitt Romney will run for president again in 2016. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by woodse on 2015-01-15; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-10-01.

2016 Election is Clinton vs Rubio. ( 12% confidence; 22 wagers; 17 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-27; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-10-01.

Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by kuudes on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-10-01.

The Balseraphs will not succeed in landing a single unit on the Amurite home continent. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Temeraire on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-07-03; judged right by Temeraire on 2016-10-01.

The Anthropocene Working Group decides Anthropocene is a true geologic epoch ( 59% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-01; known on 2016-10-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-01.

FBI investigation will find no criminal activity on Hillary Clinton's part. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-09-30; known on 2016-10-01; judged right by elephantower on 2016-09-28.

The Rigs Will Burn! Rigs have fallen by -1029 in just one year according to Baker Hughes as of August 7.There are only 884 rigs left alive. 1 more year of this, and all the rigs will have burned down. Shout Allahu Akbar as Iran delivers Coup de grâce. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 16 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-08-19; known on 2016-09-28; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-09-28.

Mo-Pac express lanes will not be open and accepting traffic before September 20th, 2016 ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-08-29; known on 2016-09-20; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2016-09-26.

I will move to Spain between April and September 2016. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-09-07; known on 2016-09-25; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2016-09-25.

North American oil industry will collapse. Rig count will fall to zero. ( 7% confidence; 29 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-04; known on 2016-09-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-25.

I go to Lalibela this summer ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by ioannes on 2016-06-30; known on 2016-09-16; judged right by ioannes on 2016-09-24.

I bet after 6 months of travelling, I will say I do not regret getting my new backpack, Kelty RedWing ( 80% confidence )

Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-10; known on 2016-09-10; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2016-09-20.

I bet that Pete will end up going to Burning Man ( 50% confidence )

Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-11; known on 2016-09-16; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2016-09-20.

The LDS Church will not withdraw from the BSA. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Makhura47 on 2015-07-28; known on 2015-12-15; judged right by Makhura47 on 2016-09-19.

Google's refugee donation matching to hit ~$5m limit within the year ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-17; known on 2016-09-17; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-17.

I will travel to CHI '17 to present a paper I wrote. ( 45% confidence )

Created by trishume on 2016-04-07; known on 2017-05-16; judged wrong by trishume on 2016-09-16.

I will achieve a new PB by October ( 90% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-10; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-09-16.

I will get A*A*A* at A2 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-09-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-09-16.

I will get A*A*A at A2 ( 20% confidence )