Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Neumann Space will be a resounding disaster (I'll lose a lot of money) ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2015-10-15; known on 2016-10-15; judged wrong by taryneast on 2016-10-18.
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Neumann Space will be moderate failure (I'll make no money and lose my investment) ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2015-10-15; known on 2016-10-15; judged wrong by taryneast on 2016-10-18.
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I do at least 50 hours of pomos over the next week. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-10-07; known on 2016-10-14; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2016-10-17.
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I will be admitted to the Envision Conference at Princeton this year ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2016-10-14; known on 2016-10-17; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-10-16.
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Ubuntu upgrade on Hedy the Laptop will be successful (boot to at least usable gui/network/emacs) ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-16; known on 2016-10-17; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-16.
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Tomorrow morning I will weigh more than I did this morning. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-15; known on 2016-10-16; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-16.
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Clojure becomes dominant JVM language on GitHub ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2016-10-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-16.
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BRICS will pass the USA's GDP at USD in current prices(nominal). ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-17; known on 2016-09-25; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-10-14.
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Haruki Murakami will win the next Nobel Prize in Literature. ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-20; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by penten on 2016-10-14.
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Alex knows what the Monty Hall problem is ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-10-13; known on 2016-10-13; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2016-10-13.
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I will be banned from diasporg ( 63% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-11; known on 2017-10-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-12.
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The Kim Kardashian kidnap/heist story is completely or mostly false. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bendini on 2016-10-03; known on 2016-10-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-10-10.
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I will get 8 catches of six balls this year ( 43% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-08-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-10.
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There will be at least five polls between the DNC and 2017 where Clinton beats Trump by at least ten points. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-08-06; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-10-10.
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Tim Cook departs as CEO of Apple before Steve Ballmer departs as CEO of Microsoft ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10.
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D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=1024-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2020 ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10.
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A major tech startup (valuation > 10 million dollars) will be launched out of a country or by native citizens of a country ranked in the lowest 100 of GDP per capita according to the CIA factbook. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known on 2032-09-26; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10.
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There'll be press report of “martial law” imposed on the internet by a major country in the next 10 years ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-15; known on 2022-10-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10.
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Virginia Rometty, IBM CEO, still won't be Augusta National golf course member by Jan, 2016 ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10.
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The Australian National University will change the name or acronym of its Interactive Student Information System (ISIS) some time in the next year. ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-10; known on 2016-10-10; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-10-10.
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In tonight's debate, Trump will refer to either Bill Clinton's alleged rape of Juanita Broaddrick or Hillary Clinton's defense of Thomas Alfred Taylor (or both) ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-10; known on 2016-10-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-10.
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Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2020 ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09.
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Clear biomarkers will be detected in the atmosphere of more than one “Super Earth” exoplanet by Christmas, 2017. ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2017-12-26; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-12-26.
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Clear biomarkers will be detected in the atmosphere of more than one “Super Earth” exoplanet by Christmas, 2017. ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2017-12-26; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-12-26.
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Before January 1, 2030, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore's algorithm or some similar algorithm. ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-31; known on 2030-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09.
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Before January 1, 2045, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore's algorithm or some similar algorithm. ( 69% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-31; known on 2045-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09.
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300: Battle of Artemisia is not produced and released in the next decade. ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-08-02; known on 2021-08-02; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09.
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One of John McCain or Paul Ryan will publicly withdraw support for Donald Trump in 2 months ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by hoka on 2016-08-09; known on 2016-10-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-10-08.
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Noam Tanner will commit to voting for Hillary by October 1. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-06-03; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-10-08.
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What is today known as the 2016 DNC leak will be generally agreed upon to have been hacked by a Russian Government operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation. ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-31; known on 2066-07-30; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-10-07.
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The seminar on Friday will go ahead. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-10-04; known on 2016-10-07; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-07.
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The seminar on Friday will go ahead. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-10-04; known on 2016-10-07; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-07.
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The seminar on Friday will go ahead. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-10-04; known on 2016-10-07; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-07.
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I will try some kind of VR HMD before 2017 ( 98% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-07.
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Jared Loughner will be convicted (or plead guilty) to at least one charge related to the 2011 Tuscon shooting. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-01-12; known on 2026-01-12; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-07.
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“Everything goes very multi-core, even your cell phone.” by 2020 —Shane Legg ( 96% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-07.
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'On his hundred birthday, December 16, Sir Arthur C. Clarke is one of the first guests in the Hilton Orbiter.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-07.
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Home sous-vide cookers <$200. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-07.
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“By the end of the 2016 Olympic Games, swimmer Michael Phelps will be convicted for doping at the 2008 Olympic Games.” ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-07.
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Bernie Sanders is the next US President elect ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-09-03; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-10-06.
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All Ohio Kasich/Boehner ticket wins GOP nomination. ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-09-29; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-10-06.
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Boehner's resignation turns out to be part of a play to get Boehner on one of the GOP presidential tickets. ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-09-29; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-10-06.
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Bin Laden and USA are working together ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ravneetrox on 2010-05-06; known on 2030-05-06; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-06.
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One year after he leaves or is forced to leave his position as the U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will be a full-time employee of Goldman Sacks. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JamesMiller on 2009-10-16; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-06.
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One year after he leaves or is forced to leave his position as the U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will be a full-time employee of a financial institution that has over $10 billion in assets. ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JamesMiller on 2009-10-16; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-06.
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Playstation 4/successor PS3 released by 2017 ( 30% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06.
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SR: the server imaged in July 2013 was in neither Romania nor Latvia nor Sweden ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by gwern on 2016-10-06.
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SR: the server imaged in July 2013 was in Sweden ( 20% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2016-10-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-10-06.
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SR: the server imaged in July 2013 was in Latvia ( 20% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2016-10-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-10-06.
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SR: the server imaged in July 2013 was in Romania ( 20% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2016-10-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-10-06.