Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Hillary Clinton wins the presidential election 2016 ( 64% confidence; 26 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton will win Utah ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-10; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton wins Georgia ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-10; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-09.
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Democrats win undivided control of government in 2016 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton will get at least 332 Electoral College votes in the 2016 Presidential Election. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2016-10-22; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by quanticle on 2016-11-09.
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US goes to Defcon 1, by 13:00 EST nov 8, 2016 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-07; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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In the US, a federal government shut-down will occur before the next presidential election. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-11-05; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Fiction,Webcomics, Erfworld – Caesar agrees to at least not interfere in an attempt to turn Parson, within pages 208 or 209. ( 40% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-10-29; known on 2016-11-05; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-11-08.
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Fiction, Web Serial, Twig – Mauer is told about the Falconer's origin during 14.18 or 14.19 ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-10-29; known on 2016-11-06; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-11-08.
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UK Government agrees to take in more migrant children than previously planned before start of 2016-11-06. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-10-29; known on 2016-11-06; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-11-08.
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Fiction, Webcomics, Strong Female Protagonist – Feral expresses anger towards Alison within pages 94 or 95. ( 10% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-10-29; known on 2016-11-05; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-11-08.
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A third party candidate will not participate in a presidential debate ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-08.
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Gary Johnson will poll above 15% and be included in the 2016 presidential debates. ( 15% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-06-03; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-08.
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Donald Trump will shave his head any time before the general election (no GOP nomination needed) ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-08.
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Kim Dotcom will release (either directly or through WikiLeaks or another party) at least 3,000 new and legitimate Hillary Clinton emails, before election day ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-26; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-08.
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There will be at least 3 candidates for U.S. President polling at 10%+ on the eve of the 2016 elections. ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sflicht on 2015-12-19; known on 2016-11-07; judged wrong by sflicht on 2016-11-08.
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Rand Paul will win the presidential election. He will go against the NSA, surveillance, drone strikes… all the “hot issues” for the new generation. Thousands of people will register as Republicans and vote for him to fight for a free Internet. ( 3% confidence; 21 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by tinatoys on 2013-08-03; known on 2016-11-06; judged wrong by jgauthier on 2016-11-07.
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Haseeb will visit me some time between November 25th and December 5th. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-10-07; known on 2016-12-05; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2016-11-06.
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I will match with anyone on Tinder who I can confirm is not a robot or scam or spam, before 2017 ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-30; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-06.
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“All of the major candidates for the 2016 presidential election will have had samples of their DNA taken and analyzed (perhaps without the candidates’ permission.) The results of the analysis for each candidate will be widely disseminated and will influen ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2016-11-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-11-04.
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I will be offered the position at PU EE. ( 62% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2016-11-03; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by olimay on 2016-11-04.
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The US presidential debates of 2016 will feature a three-way debate between a Democrat, a Republican, and a Libertarian Party candidate. ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-02; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-02.
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S born before 1st November ( 40% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-10-13; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by penten on 2016-11-02.
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There will be no more juvenile seagulls around the garden by end of October ( 95% confidence )
Created by blackRust on 2016-07-24; known on 2016-10-31; judged right by blackRust on 2016-11-01.
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[LoL Worlds] Korean team wins ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-10-06; known on 2016-11-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-01.
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[LoL Worlds] NA team wins ( 18% confidence )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-10-06; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-01.
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[LoL Worlds] Chinese team wins ( 16% confidence )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-10-06; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-01.
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[LoL Worlds] Albus NOX Luna makes it out of groups ( 30% confidence )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-10-06; known on 2016-11-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-01.
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[LoL Worlds] At least one NA team makes it out of groups. ( 85% confidence )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-10-06; known on 2016-11-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-01.
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I'll conduct a training on nonviolent communication for 6+ people in October 2016 ( 90% confidence )
Created by berekuk on 2016-09-30; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by berekuk on 2016-11-01.
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Upon finishing reading it, I will conclude that bill C-22, the text as of first reading, is a step in the right direction ( 47% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31; known on 2016-12-04; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31.
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J will get 50 catches of 4 balls in the next six months. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-04-25; known on 2016-10-24; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-10-31.
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My date with the pastry chef will be depressing ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2016-10-04; known on 2017-05-10; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-10-30.
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My next two attempts to set 5-rep PRs on the bench press will both be successful. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-02; known on 2016-10-30; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-30.
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I will manage to invest in ZCash ( 64% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-25; known on 2016-10-30; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-30.
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Fiction, Web Serial, Twig – Falconer's bird is incapacitated or dies during 14.15 or 14.16 ( 50% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-10-23; known on 2016-10-30; judged right by jbeshir on 2016-10-29.
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Bob Dylan acknowledges his Nobel Prize in Literature in some fashion before the start of 2016-10-30 ( 8% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-10-23; known on 2016-10-30; judged right by jbeshir on 2016-10-29.
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Fiction,Webcomics, Erfworld – Caesar agrees to at least not interfere in an attempt to turn Parson, within pages 206 or 207. ( 30% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-10-23; known on 2016-10-29; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-10-29.
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Fiction, Webcomics, Strong Female Protagonist – Feral expresses anger towards Alison within pages 92 or 93. ( 30% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-10-23; known on 2016-10-29; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-10-29.
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Fiction, Webcomics, Guilded Age – Best apologises or expresses regret to someone for something within pages 29-31. ( 28% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-10-23; known on 2016-10-29; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-10-29.
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(gnome-related?) dconf/suspend issues I'm having tonight do not exist in xfce ( 64% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-26; known on 2016-10-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-26.
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HP MoR: Harry will, at some point in the story or an epilogue, literally tear apart stars (for star lifting purposes perhaps), and this is what the “tear apart the very stars in heaven” phrase in the prophecy was referring to. ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-28; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-31.
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One week from today, I will weigh less than 89.5kg. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-15; known on 2016-10-22; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-22.
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I will read 45 or more books in 2016 ( 91% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-22.
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Julian Assange died before this prediction was made ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-17; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-21.
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We won't hire any new admins for Kocherga club in 2016 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by berekuk on 2016-09-30; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by berekuk on 2016-10-21.
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I will successfully arrive at my destination when travelling on 14/10/16 ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-10-04; known on 2016-10-15; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-19.
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Neumann Space will be partially successful (I'll make back the money I put in) ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2015-10-15; known on 2016-10-15; judged right by taryneast on 2016-10-18.
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Neumann Space will be moderately successful (I'll be able to pay off my mortgage) ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2015-10-15; known on 2016-10-15; judged wrong by taryneast on 2016-10-18.
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Neumann Space will be extremely successful (I'll be able to retire) ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2015-10-15; known on 2016-10-15; judged wrong by taryneast on 2016-10-18.