PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Pedro Sánchez will be the next President of the Government of Spain ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ArturoGoosnargh on 2015-12-25; known on 2016-03-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-05.

Republican presidential candidate in 2016 to be generally perceived as immigration-friendly (described as such by a major news source). ( 30% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-08-05.

Pokemon Go will descend to <15M users by 08/20 ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by sungk2048 on 2016-07-25; known on 2016-08-20; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-05.

Terence Tao will solve the Clay Institute problem on the Navier-Stokes equation (or prove it cannot be done) within the next five years. ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2011-08-05; known on 2016-08-05; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-08-05.

Pokemon Go will descend to <15M users by 08/20 ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by sungk2048 on 2016-07-25; known on 2016-08-20; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-05.

At 6 PM Sanders will announce an endorsement from Biden. ( 2% confidence; 5 comments )

Created by VonFoerster on 2016-01-14; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2016-08-04.

[GoT] R + L = J will be revealed/referenced before the end of season 6. ( 50% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-03; known on 2016-08-02; judged right by HonoreDB on 2016-08-04.

Bitcoin network survives to block halving. ( 99% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-03.

cd591c54d0bbf69025801fcddf4a85d9 ( 74% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-30; known on 2016-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-02.

benadryl 'coma' this weekend due to cleaning cat area ( 64% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-30; known on 2016-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-01.

I will get to 67kg by 1 August 2016 ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by waveman on 2016-03-04; known on 2016-08-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2016-08-01.

HP MoR: Harry will, at some point in the story or an epilogue, literally tear apart stars (for star lifting purposes perhaps), and this is what the “tear apart the very stars in heaven” phrase in the prophecy was referring to. ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-07-28; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-31.

this prediction should definitely break then > _ > ( 52% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-31; known on 2016-07-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-31.

If SCOTUS hears a gay marriage case in the next 2 years the ruling will determine there is a constitutional right to gay marriage. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-27; known on 2016-09-27; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-31.

Bernie Sanders endorses Hillary Clinton for President ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-06-08; known on 2016-11-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-28.

Conditional on a Labour leadership election being forced (ie, not as a result of Corbyn's resignation), Jeremy Corbyn will be on the ballot ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-28.

Corbyn will be put on the Labour leadership ballot ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by elephantower on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-08-13; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-28.

In the 2016 US Presidential election, at least one Republican candidate will be publicly in favor of gay marriage and will be successful enough in the primary to get multiple delegates. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-04-24; known on 2016-09-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.

this prediction will also break. [ You gotta test in production, that's where the action is ]. This is a test just like the last prediction > It's totally a test of whether the bug is triggerable. Are you triggered? d: :d :d d: ( 53% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-27; known on 2017-07-26; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-27.

this prediction will break > ( 53% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-27; known on 2016-07-26; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-27.

The Angry Birds Movie will gross under 150 million in its first four weeks. ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-26; known on 2016-09-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.

Hillary will win the democratic nomination. ( 79% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NobodySpecial on 2016-01-20; known on 2016-07-28; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.

Clinton to be Democratic nominee ( 84% confidence; 13 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.

Hillary Clinton will be the 2016 Democratic nominee for US President. ( 81% confidence; 39 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by m2bn on 2015-09-11; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.

John Kerry to run for President in 2016 ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-26; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.

US 2016 Presidential election to be Trump v. Sanders ( 5% confidence; 40 wagers; 18 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.

Conditional on neither Hillary or Bernie withdrawing before the Iowa caucus or either candidate running as an independent, Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee for President. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-22; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.

2016 election to be Trump (Republican) v. non Hillary ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-16; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.

Hillary Clinton will win the democratic nomination ( 88% confidence; 30 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-07-26; judged right by grogo on 2016-07-26.

M will get 50 catches of 3 balls in the next three months ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2016-04-25; known on 2016-07-25; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-26.

Marissa Meyer will quit as Yahoo's CEO in less than 4 years ( 47% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-24; known on 2016-07-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-24.

Marissa Meyer will quit as Yahoo's CEO in less than 4 years ( 47% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-24; known on 2016-07-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-24.

The Munich shooters turn out to be Muslim ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 17 comments )

Created by bendini on 2016-07-22; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.

Hillary chooses Julian Castro as her running mate ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2015-05-05; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.

Hillary chooses running mate from Ohio, Colorado, Florida, or Virginia. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-04-16; known on 2016-09-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.

Hillary Clinton chooses Sherrod Brown as running mate. ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-04-16; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.

Hillary chooses Sanders as running mate. ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-05-04; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.

Elizabeth Warren will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 81% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.

A woman will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 77% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.

A man will be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )