Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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The new Berlin (Germany) airport will be operational until June 2016. ( 25% confidence )
Created by nyabhingi on 2014-05-12; known on 2016-06-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-09-08.
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Apple makes significant changes to display technology of future iPhone (i.e. OLED, extends to edge of phone, different glass, Tupac hologram capability) ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-25; known on 2016-06-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-09-08.
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Book 2 of Unsong will end with an interlude this week (September 7). ( 33% confidence )
Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-09-05; known on 2016-09-08; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-09-07.
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iPhone 7 has USBC ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2016-06-21; known on 2016-10-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-09-07.
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In Apple's iPhone announcement in 2016, at least one new iPhone will have a True Tone display ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-09-07.
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At least one flagship iPhone model announced in 2016 will have a 3.5mm headphone jack on the body of the phone ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-24; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-09-07.
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Next Apple iPhone (7, not SE) excludes 3.5mm headphone jack. ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-25; known on 2016-08-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-09-07.
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I get fired for being pro-boycott/sanction/divestment of Canada / Israel. ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-31; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-07.
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I will get 15 catches of five balls this year ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-08-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-09-07.
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I will go to Burning Man this year. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-01; known on 2016-09-10; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2016-09-06.
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Jeremy Corbyn will resign over Brexit and the current Labour coup. ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-09-05.
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2016 predictions: I will attend Burning Man. ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-09-05.
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2016 predictions: Sam will attend Burning Man. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-09-05.
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Unsong: Sohu is the Comet King's daughter. ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29; known on 2018-02-28; judged right by Sniffnoy on 2016-09-05.
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finish this water ( 100% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2016-09-01; known on 2016-09-02; judged right by booradleytron on 2016-09-04.
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Bernie Sanders chooses Carly Fiorina as VP ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-28; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-09-03.
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Hillary Clinton will run for president and be nominated by the Democrats in 2016. ( 42% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-09-30; judged right by Dapple on 2016-09-03.
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Joe Biden will win the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. ( 10% confidence; 28 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-25; known on 2016-09-15; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-09-02.
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I will be single on Sep 1, 2016 ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-11; known on 2016-09-02; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-02.
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Lewandowski to transfer to Arsenal in Summer 2016 ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-05-01; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-09-01.
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Provably intelligent life (was) on HD164595 ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-30; known on 2397-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-01.
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Trump will drop out of the Presidential race before Aug 31st ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-08-05; known on 2016-08-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-08-31.
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Russia will be aggressive toward Finland. ( 65% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by mayanju on 2015-08-19; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-08-30.
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I will get 13 catches of five balls this year ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-08-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-08-30.
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Vancouver power grid does not have a crisis in summer 2016 ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12; known on 2016-11-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-30.
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The Interactive portion of SXSW 2016 will see fewer than 35,000 attendees. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-08-15; known on 2016-04-01; judged wrong by unexpectedEOF on 2016-08-29.
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The r0 of the 2014 Ebola outbreak will be under 2 ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by msevrens on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-28.
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Technology will continue to advance ( 97% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tacita on 2015-08-26; known on 2016-08-26; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-28.
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I will get 100 catches of four balls this year ( 56% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-08-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-08-24.
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Brasil will be ranked at least 8th in the medal tally table, with 27 medals overall. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-08-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-22.
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Rossiya will be ranked 3rd in the medal tally for Rio Olympics. ( 54% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-08-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-22.
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Zhongguo will top the Rio Olympics overall and gold medal tally. ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-08-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-22.
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Bharat will win more than 10 medals at Rio 2016 — Sports Minister Sarbananda Sonowal ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-16; known on 2016-08-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-22.
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UFC 202: Conor McGregor loses to Nate Diaz ( 57% confidence )
Created by Pradeep_Kumar on 2016-08-15; known on 2016-08-21; judged wrong by Pradeep_Kumar on 2016-08-21.
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joe responded ( 20% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2016-08-21; known on 2016-08-21; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-08-21.
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Pokemon Go will descend to <15M users by 08/20 ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sungk2048 on 2016-07-25; known on 2016-08-20; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-05.
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this computer will boot after successful upgrade from ubuntu 15.10 to 16.04 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-16; known on 2016-08-17; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-17.
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Trump will use donated money to pay off any portion of the loans he has made to his primary campaign ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-05; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-08-16.
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1.8%+ urban development growth in 2015 ( http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.GROW/countries?display=graph ) ( 97% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2016-09-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-16.
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Ted won't be able to provide me with a way to actually restrict the player universe in an ESPN fantasy football draft to remove the keepers in the next 48 hours. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2016-08-12; known on 2016-08-14; judged right by Porejide on 2016-08-15.
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HTC will ship a desktop-PC VR HMD to the general public before 2017 ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-14.
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Conditional on Germany proceeding with nuclear phaseout, coal will account for a larger share of generation (in TWh/yr terms) in 2015 than it did in 2012. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2016-08-13.
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The San Diego Chargers will announce before February 2016 that they will leave San Diego for Los Angeles ( 75% confidence )
Created by Radioguy76 on 2015-02-23; known on 2016-02-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-12.
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The Bitcoin reward halvening will increase its value by over 25% versus USD within a month of the event. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-07-08; known on 2016-08-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-12.
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Model will finish training before tomorrow moring and not crash. ( 80% confidence )
Created by sacred_datura on 2016-08-11; known on 2016-08-12; judged right by sacred_datura on 2016-08-12.
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I will get in my A1 ( 70% confidence )
Created by mingming2221 on 2015-09-24; known on 2016-08-10; judged right by mingming2221 on 2016-08-11.
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weather will be shit today when I'm walking ( 53% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-10; known on 2016-08-11; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-10.
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Some kind of “PHP in the browser” system will overtake node.js in usage by August 4, 2016 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-09; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-08.
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Summer Olympics in Brazil happen in 2016 ( 95% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-24; known on 2016-09-30; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-06.
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The 2016 Olympics will be in Rio ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2014-05-29; known on 2016-08-29; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-06.