Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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The VIX index will go above 30 before February 1, 2016 ( 35% confidence; 16 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
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By January 30th, 2016 War between Satan and God, clearly happening to those on Earth. ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-30; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
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Hillary Clinton's average share in Democratic presidential primary polling shall be at least 55.0%, rounded to the first decimal, at 11:59:59 p.m. (ET) on January 31, 2016, according to RealClearPolitics.com ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-02-01.
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Extreme upset of how things are by January 30th, 2016 ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-23; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-01.
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ATK will successfully launch by Feb 1, 2016 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-01; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-01.
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The two of us will send an email to that philosophy professor, like we said we would last Spring. ( 30% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2015-11-09; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2016-02-01.
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I will complete the DAND program by the end of January 2016. ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2015-12-26; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-02-01.
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CIA director John Brennan will resign by 1 Feb 2015 ( 18% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-10-21; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by James Babcock on 2016-02-01.
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Blackstone's February 2016 dividend will be below $0.60 per share ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-01-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-01.
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Malheur will no longer be occupied by armed insurgents by the end of the month. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-01-31; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-02-11.
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I will play at least some of The Witness before 2017 ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-31.
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At least one episode of Season 3 of RWBY will come out before January 30, 2016 ( 65% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-05; known on 2016-01-30; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-30.
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I will finish the 4th data munging problem set today ( 60% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-01-29; known on 2016-01-30; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-01-30.
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The New York times will report it confirmed that Craig Wright is Satoshi Nakamoto by 2016-12-31 ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by solipsist on 2015-12-09; known on 2016-12-31; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30.
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Baidu's stock price will go below 160 before February 1, 2016 ( 53% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-17; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30.
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The New York times will report it confirmed that Craig Wright is Satoshi Nakamoto by 2016-12-31 ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by solipsist on 2015-12-09; known on 2016-12-31; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30.
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NIST's overall budget will increase from FY 2015 to 2016 ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-21; known on 2016-03-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29.
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Jake's jitter error is a bug in his program. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-01-29; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-01-28.
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Sam's stolen phone will be recovered. ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-29; known on 2016-01-28; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-28.
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I will graduate from Virginia Tech with a BS in Computer Engineering at the end of the Spring 2015 semester ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-11; known on 2015-05-15; judged right by benwr on 2016-01-27.
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Maker culture grew in 2015, as measured by maker faire audience ( http://makerfaire.com/ / http://makerfaire.com/bay-area-2015/sponsors/ ) ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-27.
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Luc Ferrandez est élu chef du parti Projet Montréal ( 75% confidence )
Created by elecnix on 2016-01-20; known on 2016-01-27; judged wrong by elecnix on 2016-01-27.
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By the end of 2015, either a presidential candidate, a member of congress, or Obama, will talk about the rise of AI as it relates to job-loss and/or existential crisis. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by FractalHeretic on 2015-04-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-01-27.
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Neither Russia nor Qatar will lose their World Cups before 2016. ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-01-27.
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Jonathan Blow's The Witness will be released to the general public for at least one platform in January 2016 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-19; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-26.
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I'll finish the third data munging problem set this evening ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-01-25; known on 2016-01-26; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-01-26.
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Bharat will pass the USA in steel production in 2015(full calendar year). In 2014 USA was ahead. Steel is an excellent proxy for GDP growth, along with cement and electricity. Data Source: World Steel Association. ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-03-25; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-25.
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Olivia will not give any instrumental rationality material to Regex ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by daniel74f on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by regex on 2016-01-25.
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Olivia will not give any instrumental rationality material to Regex ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by daniel74f on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by regex on 2016-01-25.
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Olivia will not give any instrumental rationality material to Regex ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by daniel74f on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by regex on 2016-01-25.
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Sam gets me sick. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-20; known on 2016-01-24; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-24.
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Hafthor Bjornsson wins 2015 World's Strongest Man. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-02; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-01-23.
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Kelsey is Snape ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-01-22; known on 2016-01-23; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-01-22.
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C will work out how to solve a Rubik's cube this year. ( 1% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-01-21; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-01-22.
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Asia-Pacific surpassed North America with the largest HNWI population (4.69 million versus 4.68 million) and is expected to overtake North America's leading $16.2 trillion in HNWI wealth by the end of the year. Asia-Pacific Wealth Report 2015 (APWR) ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-12-26; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-22.
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I will achieve a 1:1 at the end of first year university ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-01; known on 2015-07-12; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-21.
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I will have a credence greater than 50% that the Everett interpretation of QM is true. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-21.
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“By January 21, 2016, Facebook will not have the largest market share of social network users who log in at least once per day.” —John Feminella ( 47% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2016-01-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-21.
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J agrees to call. ( 55% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-13; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-21.
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no errors in this upload ( 72% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-21; known on 2016-01-22; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-21.
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I will get approval letter to take PE within 2 weeks ( 60% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2016-01-05; known on 2016-01-19; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2016-01-21.
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When/if Raahul_Kumar reaches 30 predictions for which the answer becomes known and he assigned >95% confidence, he will have at best 65% accuracy for the 100% category ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-21.
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When/if Raahul_Kumar reaches 30 predictions for which the answer becomes known and he assigned >95% confidence, he will have at best 50% accuracy for the 100% category ( 33% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-21.
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My paper will be accepted for the Munich conference ( 40% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-20.
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Mo-Pac express lanes will not be completed and accepting traffic before January 20th, 2016. ( 98% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-08-15; known on 2016-01-20; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2016-01-20.
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Micron's stock will go below 10.50 before February 1, 2016 ( 71% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-17; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-20.
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The S&P 500 will go below 1867 on Jan 20th 2016 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-20; known on 2016-01-21; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-20.
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New Mersenne prime to be discovered by January 1, 2020 ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-20.
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New Mersenne prime discovered by January 1, 2035. ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-12; known on 2035-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-20.
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New Mersenne prime discovered by January 1, 2030. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-12; known on 2030-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-20.