PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Judged Predictions

Sasha W will attend Story Night II ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged right by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.
Alex D will attend Story Night II ( 85% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged right by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.
Allison K will attend Story Night II ( 80% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged right by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.
Jonathan P will attend Story Night II ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged right by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.
Ambrose F will attend Story Night II ( 65% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.
Nora N will attend Story Night II ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.
Justin C will attend Story Night II ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged right by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.
David Garvey will attend Story Night II ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged right by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.
Alexei A will attend Story Night II ( 35% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.
Michael C will attend Story Night II ( 25% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.
Kimberley S will attend Story Night II ( 10% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.
Tom C will attend Story Night II ( 15% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.
Dan B will attend Story Night II ( 5% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.
Brian F will attend Story Night II ( 5% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.
Charlie vN will attend Story Night II ( 80% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-15; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.
Bill K will attend Story Night II ( 75% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-17; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.
Rebecca G will attend Story Night II ( 75% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-17; known on 2013-02-18; judged right by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.
SE will attend Story Night II ( 30% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-17; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.
Matt V will attend story night II ( 20% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-17; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.
Alan will attend Story Night II ( 85% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-17; known on 2013-02-18; judged right by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.
Ludwig S will attend Story Night II ( 75% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-17; known on 2013-02-18; judged right by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.
Marco G will attend Story Night II ( 75% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-18; known on 2013-02-19; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.
My friend and chapter brother, A. U., will not have a little by the end of this Spring 2013 semester. ( 98% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-25; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-18.
My friend and chapter brother, A. U., will not have a little by the end of the Spring 2014 semester (his estimated time of graduation) ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-25; known on 2014-05-12; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-18.
I will have one or more offspring before 03/2013. ( 99% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-12; known on 2013-03-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-02-17.
There will not be made any announcement by NASA of significant discovery on Mars by rover Curiosity until the end of 2012. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by cyblifeformnode on 2012-12-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-02-16.
CVN's gift will be either food-based or snow-based. ( 85% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-15; known on 2013-02-16; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-15.
Apple will hit 450 by February 2013. ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by andrevan on 2012-11-24; known on 2013-02-15; judged right by andrevan on 2013-02-15.
23andme will have processed my sample within 6 weeks of receiving it ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by dhoe on 2013-02-12; known on 2013-02-15; judged right by dhoe on 2013-02-14.
In the next 3 days, fewer than 4 different users will make top-level comments that introduce new research in this thread: http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/fmy/lw_women_crowdsourced_research_on_cognitive/ ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by John Maxwell IV on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-02-14; judged wrong by John Maxwell IV on 2013-02-14.
LSD microdosing experiment: pair 16: placebo then active? ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-14; judged right by gwern on 2013-02-13.
Micheal Jackson is pulling a Tupac ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by melmel on 2010-02-10; known on 2013-02-10; judged wrong by procran on 2013-02-12.
North Korea to conduct a nuclear test in 2013. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by simplicio on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-02-12.
After watching a few episodes of My Little Pony, I will decide I like it and continue watching the show. ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-01-16; known on 2013-02-15; judged right by ygert on 2013-02-08.
Less than one hundred comments on the uncensored LW thread in a month. http://www.reddit.com/r/LessWrong/comments/17y819/lw_uncensored_thread/ ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2013-02-05; known on 2013-03-16; judged wrong by moridinamael on 2013-02-07.
LSD microdosing experiment: pair 15: placebo then active? ( 65% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-02-06; known on 2013-02-07; judged right by gwern on 2013-02-06.
The header backgrounds on LessWrong's Main and Discussion sites will be matched within a month. ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gokfar on 2013-01-05; known on 2013-02-05; judged wrong by gokfar on 2013-02-05.
Yvain will mention the hand gesture the awkward turtle in http://squid314.livejournal.com/ within the next 7 days ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by beo_shaffer on 2013-01-28; known on 2013-02-04; judged wrong by beo_shaffer on 2013-02-04.
United States ceases to be a net fuel importer for 2012. (60%) —knb ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-02.
3D technologies (like 3D TV channels) will become widespread by the year 2013. Football matches will be screened in 3D as well. ( 48% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Selector on 2012-04-26; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by alexyakushev on 2013-02-01.
I won't upgrade to iPhone 5 before February 2013. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-02-01.
GJP: #1057 Will the Russian military deploy* additional Iskander missiles before 1 February 2013? ( 40% confidence; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-02-01.
New York Knicks #2 ranked offense and defense will both fall out of the top ten by the end of January, according to basketball-reference (http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/NYK/2013.html). ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 21 comments )

Created by fistpo on 2012-11-06; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by fistpo on 2013-02-01.
There will be <=3 MLP-related posts on LessWrong in January 2013. ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-15; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-02-01.
At least one more GNU project maintainer publicly resigns, citing similar reasons as the gnutls and sed maintainers. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by tedks on 2012-12-23; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by tedks on 2013-02-01.
By January 31, 2013, the confidence on this prediction will be between 40 – 60%. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by edwga on 2012-12-20; known on 2013-01-31; judged right by edwga on 2013-01-31.
LSD microdosing experiment: pair 14: placebo then active? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-01-31; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-31.
At least one of gwern's R snippets posted to LW before December 5th, 2012 was falsified to test if any LWer actually double-checked his work. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2012-12-05; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by papermachine on 2013-01-31.
The NY Jets will play in the Super Bowl in 2013 ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fistpo on 2012-08-04; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by fistpo on 2013-01-31.
Windows Phone 7.8 will roll out over-the-air to some consumer devices by the end of February 2013. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2013-03-01; judged right by dusk on 2013-01-31.