PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will finish The Complete Idiot's Guide to Learning Latin before the end of the year. ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.

I will complete The Complete Idiot's Guide to Physics: Second Edition before 2013. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-30; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.

I will obtain the CompTIA Linux+ Powered by LPI certification before 2013. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-29; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.

I will obtain the CompTIA Security+ certification before 2013. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-29; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.

At least three papers with the word “connectomics” in their title or abstract will be published in Nature in 2012. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Porejide on 2013-01-02.

12 Angry Men will be #5 or higher on imdb's top 250 on Jan 1, 2013. (it is currently #6) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Porejide on 2013-01-02.

The Shawshank Redemption will be #1 on imdb's top 250 on Jan 1, 2013. (it is currently #1) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Porejide on 2013-01-02.

On Jan 1, 2013, there will be seven or more movies from 2012 on imdb's top 250. http://www.imdb.com/chart/top ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Porejide on 2013-01-02.

Kickstarter will generate more than $2.5 million USD in successfully funded game projects that are non-video related in 2012 ( 80% confidence )

Created by richardbliss on 2011-11-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by richardbliss on 2013-01-01.

Anna Salamon will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-09.

GSoC 2012: “Patch Index Optimization for Darcs” ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Mars rover SAM instrument discovers live microorganisms in Martian soil. ( 11% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Samm on 2013-04-26.

I will watch all of the second season of Game of Thrones, before 2013 ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.

Google + will have under 10 million users by 2013 ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Gedusa on 2011-09-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-04-08.

GSoC 2012: “multiuser browser-based interactive ghci, hpaste.org meets tryhaskell.org, for improved teaching of those new to Haskell.” ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

I won't try polyphasic sleep in 2012. ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-01-01.

My 'guide to modern classical music' won't be finished by the end of the year. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-01-01.

One week after its release, 'Django Unchained' will hold a score of 80% or above on RottenTomatoes. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-01-01.

I will visit Oxford UK this year. ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-01-01.

Germany will not leave Euro by end of 2012 ( 92% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by procran on 2011-11-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2013-01-01.

Silver spot price will touch $50 or higher by December 31, 2012. ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by dakyne on 2011-07-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by dakyne on 2013-01-01.

Spot gold price will touch at least $2000 by December 31, 2012. ( 52% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by dakyne on 2011-07-16; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by dakyne on 2013-01-01.

GSoC 2012: “Sandboxed builds and isolated environments for Cabal” ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.

2012 is not end of this world! ( 98% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.

GSoC 2012: “Accelerating Haskell Application Development” ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

The world will end in 2012 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.

GSoC 2012: “Implement Concurrent Hash-table / Hash map” ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

GSoC 2012: “Scoutess – a build manager for cabal projects” ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Korea will keep the record as the first ranking of suicide rate till end of 2011. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Eunseo on 2011-05-29; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.

There will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving more than 100 million personal records before the end of 2012. ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.

World will not end or be radically transformed in accordance with apocalyptic expectations of any major world religion (as they are understood prior to the events of 2012). ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by smijer on 2012-01-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.

Less Wrong will have a “limited-access forum” before 2013. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.

“Bitcoins will be accepted by at least one major online trader of legal goods” (top 500) ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

“Bitcoins will be accepted by at least one major online trader of legal goods” (top 100) ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

“one of the top 5 biggest bitcoin sites will be hacked and the hacker will profit by gaining lots of bitcoins” —kiba ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.

A stem cell cure for baldness will be commercially/medically available ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

“9. Facebook hits 1 billion users” —Brian Breslin ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.

GJP: #1056 Will €1 Euro buy less than $1.20 US dollars at any point before 1 January 2013? ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

'Groupon will trade less than 25% of its current share price and may restructure / fold' —dia80 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.

“Apple will get a new CEO in 2012” [not Tim Cook] —Cringeley ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

AMZN market cap >= 0.25 * AAPL on 31 December 2012. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

“Intel buys [merges with] Qualcomm” —Cringely ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Either Morotola or Cisco will buy Tivo. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

“Prediction #4: Motorola buys TiVO” —Cringely ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Ballmer will step down as MS CEO and be replaced by Eric Schmidt —Cringely ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

“A new Microsoft CEO” [Ballmer steps down] —Cringely ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

“3. LivingSocial catches up to Groupon” —Brian Breslin ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Salesforce will buy Hootsuite and/or Klout. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

“Square will get bought out by Amex or Visa” —Brian Breslin ( 40% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Blue Waters built, fully online, and capable of >1 sustained petaflops by 2013 ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Statistics

Judged Predictions