Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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3d movie fad is over in US (measured by 2012 3D box office dropping another 20% from 2011) ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-03-22.
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The price of bitcoins on MtGox meets or exceeds $65 within the next 30 days. ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tedks on 2013-03-19; known on 2013-04-18; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-03-21.
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Israeli election: The new government's coalition will include Likud/Yisrael Beiteinu. ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-24; known on 2013-03-20; judged right by ygert on 2013-03-20.
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Israeli Elections: The new government’s coalition will include Shas. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-24; known on 2013-03-20; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-03-20.
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Israeli Elections: The new government’s coalition will include HaBayit HaYehudi. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-24; known on 2013-03-20; judged right by ygert on 2013-03-20.
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Israeli Elections: The new government's coalition will include Yesh Atid. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-24; known on 2013-03-20; judged right by ygert on 2013-03-20.
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Israeli Elections: The new government’s coalition will include Labor. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-24; known on 2013-03-20; judged right by ygert on 2013-03-20.
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I will not donate any money to SIAI or its associated organizations during Winter 2012 ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by papermachine on 2012-12-06; known on 2013-03-20; judged right by papermachine on 2013-03-20.
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The price of bitcoins on MtGox meets or exceeds $60 in the next 30 days. ( 55% confidence )
Created by tedks on 2013-03-19; known on 2013-04-18; judged right by tedks on 2013-03-19.
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The price of bitcoins meets or exceeds $50 within the next 30 days. ( 55% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-03-06; known on 2013-04-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-03-19.
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Of the five main internship opportunities I applied for and still haven't heard back from, I will be accepted at at least one more. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-14; known on 2013-04-04; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-18.
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England win the six nations ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by alanog on 2013-02-02; known on 2013-03-17; judged wrong by alanog on 2013-03-17.
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There will be five or six newcomers at the next Brussels LessWrong meetup. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-03-12; known on 2013-03-16; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2013-03-16.
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There will be a new book review on FraVerus.com by the end of March 15th. ( 50% confidence )
Created by halfwaytogallifrey on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-03-16; judged wrong by halfwaytogallifrey on 2013-03-16.
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There is some way to see my older, open, private predictions that are cut off on my user page, but I'm just not seeing it. ( 10% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by nick on 2013-02-15; known on 2013-03-15; judged wrong by nick on 2013-03-14.
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Of the six main internship opportunities I applied for, I will be accepted at at least one. ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-03; known on 2013-04-30; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-14.
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Of the six main internship opportunities I applied for, I will be accepted at at least one. ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-03; known on 2013-04-30; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-14.
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The Veronica Mars movie campaign on Kickstarter will reach its $2 million goal. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-03-13; known on 2013-04-12; judged right by alecbrooks on 2013-03-14.
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Average global temperature will be higher for 2012 than 2011. ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by simplicio on 2013-03-13.
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Marc Ouellet will be the next Pope. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by halfwaytogallifrey on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-04-30; judged wrong by simplicio on 2013-03-13.
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The next pope will be a white male. ( 69% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-02-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by simplicio on 2013-03-13.
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Angelo Scola will be the next pope. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-11; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by simplicio on 2013-03-13.
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Falkland islanders to vote No (i.e., against British-administered status quo) in referendum March 10-11. ( 5% confidence )
Created by simplicio on 2013-03-02; known on 2013-03-12; judged wrong by simplicio on 2013-03-12.
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Falkland islanders to vote No (i.e., against British-administered status quo) in referendum March 10-11. ( 5% confidence )
Created by simplicio on 2013-03-02; known on 2013-03-12; judged wrong by simplicio on 2013-03-12.
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Scott, of Slate Star Codex, will land his residency ( 72% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by torekp on 2013-03-01; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by simplicio on 2013-03-11.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 20: placebo then active? ( 75% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-03-10; known on 2013-03-11; judged right by gwern on 2013-03-10.
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The Partito Democratico (PD) will win the next election (24/25 of February) in Italy ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by devas on 2013-02-23; known on 2012-02-27; judged right by devas on 2013-03-06.
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I will quit my night-job before April. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-02-17; known on 2013-04-02; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-03-06.
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The price of bitcoins on MtGox meets or exceeds $45.00 in the next 30 days. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tedks on 2013-03-05; known on 2013-04-04; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-03-06.
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The price of bitcoins on MtGox meets or exceeds $40 in the next 30 days. ( 45% confidence )
Created by tedks on 2013-03-04; known on 2013-04-03; judged right by tedks on 2013-03-05.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 19: placebo then active? ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-03-04; known on 2013-03-05; judged right by gwern on 2013-03-04.
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The price of bitcoins exceeds $35 on mtgox in the next 30 days. ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-02-22; known on 2013-03-24; judged right by nanotube on 2013-03-04.
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The price of bitcoins exceeds $35 on mtgox in the next 30 days. ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-02-22; known on 2013-03-24; judged right by nanotube on 2013-03-04.
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The price of bitcoins exceeds $35 on mtgox in the next 30 days. ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-02-22; known on 2013-03-24; judged right by nanotube on 2013-03-04.
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I will have three or more offspring before 03/2013. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-12; known on 2013-03-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-03-04.
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I will have two or more offspring before 03/2013. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-12; known on 2013-03-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-03-04.
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I will receive a certificate of completion for ‘Think Again: How to Reason and Argue’. ( 25% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-11-13; known on 2013-03-02; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-03-04.
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If I have one or more children before 03/01/2013, then at least one of them will be a girl. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-22; known on 2013-03-02; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-03-04.
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Eliezer's Sequences will be published by the Singularity Institute as an ebook (in Kindle, PDF, or iBooks format) sometime between Nov. 1st 2012 and Mar. 1st 2013. ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-09; known on 2013-03-02; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2013-03-02.
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The recent proof of the nature of the pattern of prime numbers is fatally flawed, and this flaw will be revealed before march 1st, 2013. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JohnWittle on 2012-09-14; known on 2013-03-01; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-03-01.
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It will snow (enough to build a snowman) at least once in January or February 2013 in Nottingham, UK. ( 80% confidence )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-08; known on 2013-03-01; judged right by DrDiaphanous on 2013-03-01.
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The US federal budget sequester (aka “automatic cuts”) will initially take place as planned (though it may or may not be fixed by later retroactive planning). ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-03-01; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-01.
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The professor will offer some sort of reward to the students who show up at today's optional class ( 30% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-01; known on 2013-03-02; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-01.
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Today's optional class will be worth attending ( 40% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-01; known on 2013-03-02; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-01.
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Despite today's class being optional, the majority of the class will attend. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-01; known on 2013-03-02; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-01.
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Windows will have greater than 12% market share of smart phones by March 2013 (12 months from now). ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-02; known on 2013-03-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-03-01.
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Windows will have greater than 6% market share of smart phones by March 2013 (12 months from now) ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-06; known on 2013-03-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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XiXi: 6 ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-02-27; known on 2013-02-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-27.
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XiXi: 5 ( 10% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-02-27; known on 2013-02-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-27.
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XiXi: 4 ( 10% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-02-27; known on 2013-02-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-27.