Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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The upcoming Magic: The Gathering set, Dragon's Maze, will contain at least one legendary creature with precisely four colors. ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-08; known on 2013-04-27; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-22.
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Italy's President (Napolitano) will resign before May 2013 ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-15; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-04-22.
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PyCon scandal will be mentioned on cnn.com before 2013-04-21 ( 41% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-03-21; known on 2013-04-21; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-04-21.
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I will be hospitalized or visit the emergency room within the year. ( 5% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-18; known on 2013-04-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-04-18.
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Celtics will make the playoffs ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fistpo on 2013-02-02; known on 2013-04-18; judged right by fistpo on 2013-04-18.
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OOTS: While lambasting V about hir familicide, Qarr will unintentionally inspire hir to start acting. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by itaibn on 2013-04-12; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by itaibn on 2013-04-26.
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Boston Marathon bombing perpetrated by ethnically white male. ( 61% confidence; 17 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-04-09.
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Boston Marathon bombing perpetrated by ethnically white male. ( 61% confidence; 17 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-04-09.
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H&H will win the DCA PAES. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-17; known on 2013-04-16; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-17.
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elevator will be control by voice? ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-16; known on 2013-04-16; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-04-16.
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I will win the HATCH competition this year. ( 65% confidence )
Created by huggins on 2012-10-18; known on 2013-04-16; judged wrong by huggins on 2013-04-16.
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Luke Muehlhauser will not publish a book (by a mainstream publisher) in 2013. ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-11.
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The Veronica Mars movie Kickstarter will break the all-tme Kickstarter record of $10.3 million. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-03-17; known on 2013-04-12; judged wrong by hedges on 2013-04-12.
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The Veronica Mars movie campaign on Kickstarter will reach $5 million. ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-03-14; known on 2013-04-12; judged right by phreeza on 2013-04-12.
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If I donate blood today, then I will feel sick within 60 minutes from finishing. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-04-11; known on 2013-04-12; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-04-11.
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The fanfic Reunion by Rorschach's Blot will update by the begining of May. ( 75% confidence )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-06; known on 2013-05-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-04-10.
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After March 9th, 2013, BTC will hit $300 before it hits $200. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-04-10; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by FestiveBleak on 2013-04-10.
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BTC hits $200 within the year ( 57% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-09.
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Apple will begin to sell a third tablet-style device in addition to the iPad and iPod touch/iPhone lines. This device will not have the same screen resolution (excluding factors of 2) as one of the other devices. ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 25 comments )
Created by quicklystarfish on 2012-04-09; known on 2013-04-09; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-04-09.
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The Magic: the Gathering card previewed in ReConstructed during the first week of Dragon's Maze previews will be Selesnya's Guild Champion. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Thelas on 2013-03-26; known on 2013-04-02; judged wrong by Thelas on 2013-04-09.
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F. Castro outlives Thatcher ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-04-08.
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Google + will have under 10 million users by 2013 ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Gedusa on 2011-09-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-04-08.
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Google will close above $800 before Apple. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-04-08.
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Google + will have under 10 million users by 2013 ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Gedusa on 2011-09-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-04-08.
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Gangnam Style will still be on the Billboard Youtube list by April 1, 2013 ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-08; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-04-08.
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Gangnam Style won't be on Billboard 100 digital song chart by April 1, 2013 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-08; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-04-08.
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John Cena will defeat The Rock at WrestleMania 29, becoming the WWE Champion. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-29; known on 2013-04-07; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-08.
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Oz the Great and Power will do better than expected (4wk gross > HSX @ 157.4m) ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomMovie on 2012-11-19; known on 2013-04-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-04-08.
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The top 3 most watched YouTube videos will stay the same till February 1st. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by cyblifeformnode on 2012-12-09; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by Sarokrae on 2013-04-04.
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Torment: Tides of Numenera kickstarter will reach the 3.5 millions stretch goal ( 40% confidence )
Created by kilobug on 2013-03-22; known on 2013-04-07; judged right by muflax on 2013-04-04.
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UFO ET ORBITS MONDAY ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-03-19; known on 2013-03-25; judged wrong by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03.
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Torment: Tides of Numenera kickstarter will reach the 3.25 millions stretch goal ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by kilobug on 2013-03-22; known on 2013-04-07; judged right by muflax on 2013-04-03.
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BTC hits $100 within the year ( 65% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-03-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-04-01.
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The price of bitcoins on MtGox meets or exceeds $100 in the next 30 days. ( 70% confidence )
Created by tedks on 2013-03-30; known on 2013-04-30; judged right by gwern on 2013-04-01.
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One important result in whole brain emulation ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tsathoggua on 2012-12-09; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-04-01.
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Indian Supreme Court rules in favour of Novartis. ( 34% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-17; known on 2013-03-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-04-01.
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Windows will have greater than 6% market share of smart phones by March 2013 (12 months from now) ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-06; known on 2013-03-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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GJP: #1080 Will the Republic of Macedonia* be a NATO member before 1 April 2013? ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-04-01.
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Berlusconi will be Italy's next premier ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2012-12-10; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-04-01.
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Torment: Tides of Numenera kickstarter will reach 3 millions ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kilobug on 2013-03-22; known on 2013-04-07; judged right by alecbrooks on 2013-03-30.
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Bioshock Infinite will have an average review score above 90% (based on GameRankings, at the end of the month) ( 65% confidence )
Created by hedges on 2013-03-22; known on 2013-03-31; judged right by hedges on 2013-03-28.
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March 2013 hard drive prices: 24-30 GB/$ ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-23; known on 2013-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-03-28.
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Miami Heat will break the Lakers 33 game consecutive win streak in 2013 ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-25; known on 2013-04-15; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-03-28.
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The price of bitcoins on MtGox meets or exceeds $80 in the next 30 days. ( 90% confidence )
Created by tedks on 2013-03-25; known on 2013-04-24; judged right by ygert on 2013-03-27.
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Italian Supreme Court in Rome will confirm acquittal of Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito on charge of killing Meredith Kercher. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by komponisto on 2013-03-25; known on 2013-03-26; judged wrong by komponisto on 2013-03-26.
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Summly, news summary app created by 16 yr old, will be a flop (as judged in Jan 2015) ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-01; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-03-25.
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The price of bitcoins on MtGox meets or exceeds $75 within the next 30 days. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by tedks on 2013-03-21; known on 2013-04-20; judged right by tedks on 2013-03-25.
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Harvard will make it to the round of 16 in the 2013 NCAA tournament ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-22; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-03-24.
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5 or less students will be expelled as a result of the Harvard cheating scandal (125 students investigated) ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-01; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-03-23.
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Movie, Les Miserable (2012), will do better than expected (4 wk gross > 67m @ HSX) ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-30; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-03-22.