Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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The personal use of cannabis will be de jure legalized in at least one U.S state by 2020. ( 62% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Gedusa on 2011-09-13; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by roxton on 2013-01-11.
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The first LW Purdue meetup will happen on January 11 ( 60% confidence )
Created by papermachine on 2012-12-06; known on 2013-01-11; judged right by papermachine on 2013-01-11.
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Anna Salamon will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-09.
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NFL 2012: Andrew Luck will have a better season than Robert Griffin (measured by QBR ratings on espn.com for regular season) ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-01-07.
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NFL: Seattle Seahawks will beat the Washington Redskins in the wildcard round of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2013-01-05; known on 2013-01-09; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-01-07.
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Bettina and Christian Wulff will divorce before 2015. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2012-09-13; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by dhoe on 2013-01-07.
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Encoding done before midnight ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-07; known on 2013-01-08; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-07.
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Encoding done before 11:30 ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-07; known on 2013-01-07; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-07.
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Encoding done before 10:30 ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-07; known on 2013-01-07; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-07.
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I will weight more than 57 kg on 2012-12-31 ( 35% confidence )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by ChristianKl on 2013-01-07.
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I will weight more than 58 kg on 2012-12-31 ( 15% confidence )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by ChristianKl on 2013-01-07.
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I will weight less than 54 kg on 2012-12-31 ( 30% confidence )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by ChristianKl on 2013-01-07.
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NFL: Baltimore Ravens will beat the Indianapolis Colts in the wildcard round of the 2012 Season ( 65% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2013-01-05; known on 2013-01-09; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-01-06.
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6 or more people at party tomorrow. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-03; known on 2013-01-04; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-06.
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In 2012 oil prices will reach $130+ a barrel. ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by M3 on 2011-11-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-01-06.
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NFL: Green Bay Packers will beat the Minnesota Vikings in the wildcard round of the 2012 Season ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2013-01-05; known on 2013-01-09; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-01-06.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 10: placebo then active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-06; known on 2013-01-07; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-06.
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NFL: Houston Texans will beat the Cinncinati Bengals in the wildcard round of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2013-01-05; known on 2013-01-09; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-01-06.
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Nick Corrado will pass ENG 111. ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Catmando on 2012-10-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Catmando on 2013-01-05.
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The LHC will not make any new major discoveries until the end of 2012. ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Arets Paeglis on 2012-12-01; known on 2013-01-05; judged right by Qiaochu on 2013-01-05.
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>=1 Longecity users will claim my (swapped) sets of iodine eye photographs will reveal a lightening trend of my iris. ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-05; known on 2013-01-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-05.
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GJP: #1095 Will there be a significant* outbreak of H5N1 in China in 2012? ( 35% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2013-01-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-04.
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I will stop posting on Less Wrong before the end of the year. ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-06; known on 2013-02-02; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2013-01-03.
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My grandmother will die this year. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2013-01-03.
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I'll get a prescription for modafinil this year. ( 75% confidence )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2013-01-03.
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I'll get a girlfriend this year. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2013-01-03.
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If Obama is re-elected, then a white male will go on a “shooting spree” and the shooter will mention the “political climate” as a motivating factor. If the antecedent proposition is false, then this prediction will be withdrawn. ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.
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“If the next president of the USA will be a democrat and/or a female, the US's anual GPD growth, major Wall Street share indices (Dow Jones, NASDAQ comp.) by the end of the term in 2012 will be higher, unemployment rate lower than now. The death toll of U ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.
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The winner of the 2012 US presidential election will have been the candidate that spent more money on the campaign than any other individual candidate. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.
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Romney will have raised more cash than Obama for 2012 election ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.
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The United States reestablishes its embassy in Tehran by the end of 2012 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.
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Before 2013, a new version of Chrome will be released with support for Side Tabs or vertical tabs, or there will be an equivalent or better extension that implements this functionality ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-03.
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Anna Salamon will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-09.
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Notch (or Mojang) announces open source MineCraft client has been released by 2013. ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-03.
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GJP: #1100 Will the Colombian government and FARC commence official talks before 1 January 2013? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-06; known on 2013-01-02; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-02.
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Mars rover SAM instrument discovers live microorganisms in Martian soil. ( 11% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Samm on 2013-04-26.
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Dark Knight Rises will be released in 2012 and will obtain Rotten Tomotoes score of at equal to or greater than 50% and equal or less than 85%. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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The mens' rights movement will be mentioned by name in a Time or Newsweek article sometime during 2012. ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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Future Cities Development Inc. will found at least one settlement in a special development region in Honduras and it will have a population of equal to or greater than 500 before 2013. ( 5% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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I will get a boyfriend this year. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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The unemployment rate in Singapore will not exceed 5% in 2012. ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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I will obtain a CompTIA Network+ certification before 2013. ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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If I play Deus Ex 3 in 2012, then I will rate it higher than Deus Ex 2. ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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I will play through the original Deus Ex again before 2013. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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I will continue posting on my blog until the end of this year. ( 50% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-01; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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“Lamborghini to announce, before 2013, commercial production of a four door vehicle” -ipredict ( 82% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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I will deadlift 1.5x my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with equal to or less than 1 minute rests before 2013. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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I will run 4 miles in 30 minutes or less before 2013. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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I will watch all 75 episodes of Hikaru no Go before 2013. ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-29; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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I will complete every tutorial and drill in Chessmaster: Grandmaster Edition before 2013. ( 33% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-25; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.