Copyright is challenged in a US court as unconstitutional before 2013. The case is not dismissed without hearing. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

LessWrong: By 2013, date last edited shows up next to comments that have been edited. (Would foil this evil plan, for instance. http://bit.ly/w0lkyQ ) ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

Solar flare to harm life on Earth ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

Chris Brown will be arrested for assault, domestic violence, or criminal damage before 2013. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

LSD microdosing experiment: pair 13: placebo then active? ( 60% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-01-25; known on 2013-01-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-25.

The user rating of Community on IMDB will be less than 8.5 by the end of Season 4. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by onthestairs on 2012-10-02; known on 2013-01-13; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-01-24.

My 23andme results will reveal I am 90th percentile Neanderthal or higher ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-11; known on 2013-03-11; judged wrong by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-24.

The Magic: the Gathering card “Dark Confidant” will be reprinted in Gatecrash. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ygert on 2012-12-16; known on 2013-01-26; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2013-01-22.

I will win the AI Box Experiment (Playing as an AI) scheduled on Sunday. ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known on 2013-01-21; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-20.

I will win the AI Box Experiment (Playing as an AI) scheduled on Sunday. ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known on 2013-01-21; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-20.

I will win the AI Box Experiment (Playing as an AI) scheduled on Sunday. ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known on 2013-01-21; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-20.

Due to bright light and dark-red light cycling, tomorrow I will wake up like I did today: naturally and without sleeping in. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-19; known on 2013-01-20; judged wrong by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-20.

I will find Accel World interesting enough to watch the whole first season. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by papermachine on 2012-09-20; known on 2013-01-20; judged wrong by papermachine on 2013-01-20.

I will “remember my name, or soon learn it” for MSN contact sparky_tails for something Microsoft-related ( 10% confidence )

Created by Jach on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-16; judged wrong by ewang on 2013-01-19.

I will “remember my name, or soon learn it” for MSN contact sparky_tails for something Microsoft-related ( 10% confidence )

Created by Jach on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-16; judged wrong by ewang on 2013-01-19.

Evangelion 3.0 will open with a scene that has “something to do with Asuka's mental journey from Bardy's contamination to waking up on the slab” ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

Evangelion 3.0: first scene will be flashback to entry plug test/Yui being absorbed into Unit 0.1 ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ewang on 2013-01-19.

Evangelion 3.0 will open with a scene that has “something to do with Asuka's mental journey from Bardy's contamination to waking up on the slab” ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

LSD microdosing experiment: pair 12: placebo then active? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-01-18; known on 2013-01-19; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-18.

I will “remember my name, or soon learn it” for MSN contact sparky_tails for something Microsoft-related ( 10% confidence )

Created by Jach on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-16; judged wrong by ewang on 2013-01-19.

LSD microdosing experiment: pair 11: placebo then active? ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2013-01-16; known on 2013-01-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-16.

Facebook will release a phone at their recently announced CES event. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Danny_Hintze on 2013-01-08; known on 2013-01-15; judged wrong by Danny_Hintze on 2013-01-16.

Elections judged democratic by foreign observers held in Mali ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Leo on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Leo on 2013-01-13.

After the next Dutch General Election, the Prime Minister will be from the Socialist Party. ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.

Iran will successfully launch a monkey into space by the end of 2012. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.

The Church of Kopimism will have over 20k members by 2013. Prediction will be withdrawn if membership stats aren't available. ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.

Before 2013, the US embassy in Beijing will stop publicly reporting air pollution readings (at least one continuous month with no readings) ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-28; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.

Kristin Stewart and Robert Pattinson will break up before end of 2012 ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.

Valve will release Steins;gate on steam given that 5pb consents. ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by meisnewbie on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.

Diablo 3 will launch on consoles by end of 2012 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.

World record high temperature will reach or exceed 140 °F in 2012. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-07-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.

b.crouzier estimated 60% and said “I will have achieved 2m views and 1000 subs on my youtube benjamincrouzier channel at the end of this year. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by b.crouzier on 2012-01-17; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.

The first 3D printer virus(es) will be reported before the end of 2012. ( 90% confidence; 6 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-01-30; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.

“Global temperatures in 2012 to be highest recorded.” -ipredict ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.

Death Valley temperature will be recorded at or above 135 °F this year. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-07-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.

Tech Thoughts: Google Nexus 7 to sell 6-8 million units in 2012 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-28; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by roxton on 2013-01-11.