PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will burn any kind of optical disc between 2013-01-01 00:00 UTC and 2014-01-01 00:00 UTC ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-31.

Sarah's 23andme results will show that she is 90th percentile Neanderthal or higher ( 60% confidence )

Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-19; known on 2013-03-19; judged wrong by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-30.

Sarah's 23andme results will show she is 70th percentile Neanderthal or higher ( 70% confidence )

Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-19; known on 2013-03-19; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-30.

By the end of January bond and stock markets will crash. (things my dad says) ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by drethelin on 2012-12-06; known on 2013-01-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-01-30.

Logos01 will no longer be at his job within 3 months (inclusive of resignations, firings, etc.) ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-12-27; known on 2013-03-27; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-01-30.

John Kerry is more likely to be Secretary of State than Susan Rice ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-06; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-01-30.

2012 i will enter a romantic relationship that will last longer than 30 days. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-30; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-30.

John Kerry won't be the Secretary of State but will win re-election in 2014. ( 73% confidence )

Created by alecbrooks on 2012-12-02; known on 2014-11-04; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2013-01-29.

At least one of my New Years predictions will turn out to be correct for reasons that are surprising to me. ( 80% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-27.

I will not become a vegetarian in 2012 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-27.

I will have $10 000 of play money on PokerStars by the end of 2013 ($569 as of Jan 2). ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by simplicio on 2013-01-02; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by simplicio on 2013-01-27.

I will beat Deus Ex: Human Revolution in Spanish before 2013. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-30; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-26.

I will be hired as a Civilian Investigation Specialist before 2013. ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-26.

I will start a 2nd startup before 2013. ( 33% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-26.

I will enroll in chemistry courses at a local community college before 2013. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-26.

I will still affirm simulation-theism in 2013. ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-26.

I will be enrolled as a student @ ASU again before 2013. ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-26.

I will be hired as a 'crime analyst' before 2013. ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-26.

After the next Dutch General Election, the Prime Minister will be from the Labor Party. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Leo on 2013-01-26.

After the next Dutch General Election, the Prime Minister will be from the People's Party for Freedom. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Leo on 2013-01-26.

Mars rover SAM instrument discovers methane in Martian atmosphere. ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: Rei & Shinji will exit EVA-01 in 3.0 as separate beings ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: Rei & Shinji will exit EVA-01 in 3.0 as separate beings and the SDAT player will be with them in some respect ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Eva 02 will be nonoperational ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Eva 02 will be scrapped ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Asuka will have been promoted to major ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Asuka will have been promoted ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Asuka will not remember the Matsushiro incident of 2.0 ( 30% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will not be shown in 3.0 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

Evangelion 3.0 will open with a scene that has “something to do with Asuka's mental journey from Bardy's contamination to waking up on the slab” ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

Rebuild of Evangelion 3.0: Asuka will pilot Eva unit-06; it will go to Terminal Dogma and Asuka will beg Shinji to kill her (as opposed to Kaworu) ( 15% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Eva 02 will be piloted at some point by Mari ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE: The First Ancestral Race will reveal themselves and will come to Earth personally in 3.0 to punish Rei-Shinji/Shogoki for trespassing into their domain of power. ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Eva 02 will be operational & battle-ready, and used in battle against either Angels or another Eva ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Eva 02 will be operational & battle-ready ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Mari will attend school as a regular student ( 35% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: Mari will not survive past the 50 minute mark in 3.0 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: 3.0 Asuka has no recollection of anything and will call herself “Asuka Langley Soryu” ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: Rei & Shinji will remained merged in 3.0 and will look like Rei (dressed in the AU uniform, as seen in 3.0 preview) ( 10% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: Rei & Shinji will remained merged in 3.0 ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: Gendo and Fuyutsuki go to Jerusalem in 3.0 and there they use the Key of Nebuchadnezzar to unleash something that would either save the world or destroy it. ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: Gendo and Fuyutsuki go to Jerusalem in 3.0 ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: Gendo & Fuyutsuki are traveling in the Dead Sea in 3.0 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: Gendo will, in person, physically attack Shinji in 3.0 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE: Touji will pilot an Eva in 3.0 ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE: Touji will be featured significantly in 3.0 ( 35% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Eva 02 will be under repairs at/during the beginning ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

Mars rover SAM instrument discovers live microorganisms in Martian soil. ( 11% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Samm on 2013-04-26.

The Winter 2012 Singularity Institute fundraiser will max out its dollar-matching quota. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by DaFranker on 2012-12-06; known on 2013-01-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

Federal investigation of Chris Dodd and/or the MPAA for bribery before the end of this year. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

Statistics

Judged Predictions