Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Opportunity rover to function until June, 1 2013 ( 75% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-09; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-01.
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BRK Nets will not win two playoff rounds in 2013 ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fistpo on 2012-08-02; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by fistpo on 2013-06-01.
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Not Beautiful Line is from Charlottenlund or another obscure fancy place. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Mossa Nova on 2013-05-27; known on 2013-05-31; judged wrong by Mossa Nova on 2013-05-28.
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Google will get involved in a case brought by European regulators for antitrust or privacy issues before mid 2013 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-22; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-05-27.
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xkcd #1217 will be composed primarily of a graph or diagram. ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by itaibn on 2013-05-24; known on 2013-05-27; judged wrong by itaibn on 2013-05-27.
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Discovering the water and/or oxygen traces in some exoplanets ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by tsathoggua on 2012-12-01; known on 2013-05-16; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-05-26.
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The BTCUSD rate will go below $100 within the next 5 days. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mrenouf on 2013-04-21; known on 2013-04-26; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-05-26.
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WSJ: Psy's new video Gentleman could break 1 billion views in a month ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-20; known on 2013-05-25; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-05-26.
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Bitcoin may means-revert ~$10/btc “in a few weeks” —Scott Locklin model ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2013-05-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-05-22.
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Bitcoin to hit ~$20/btc “in a few weeks” —Scott Locklin model ( 10% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2013-05-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-05-22.
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JB will win. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2013-05-14; known on 2013-05-17; judged right by Matt on 2013-05-22.
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OOTS: Comic #887 is Elan's prophesized happy ending. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by itaibn on 2013-05-13; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by itaibn on 2013-05-22.
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Bill Gates will overtake Carlos Slim as world's richest in less than 5 years. ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-07; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-05-18.
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Google will reveal a unified chat service (aka Babble) at I/O 2013 ( 80% confidence )
Created by phreeza on 2013-03-21; known on 2013-05-17; judged right by phreeza on 2013-05-16.
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Elizabeth Colbert-Busch wins SC House Seat. ( 60% confidence )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-01-20; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2013-05-16.
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The Fantasy Strike UI upgrade for Yomi will go live by May 15th ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-03-31; known on 2013-05-15; judged wrong by FestiveBleak on 2013-05-15.
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I will be ranked Diamond League in Starcraft II 1v1 by the end of the school year. ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2012-09-17; known on 2013-05-15; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2013-05-15.
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Yomi will be released for iOS by May 15th ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-03-31; known on 2013-05-15; judged wrong by FestiveBleak on 2013-05-15.
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Ozzy Osbourne and Margaret Thatcher will both die on the same day. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by YourFriend on 2011-11-26; known on 2014-12-27; judged wrong by TheEIT on 2013-05-12.
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The recently resigned pope will announce he is an atheist ( 0% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-05-11; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2013-05-11.
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Boston Celtics will beat the NY Knicks in round 1 of NBA playoffs ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-02; known on 2013-05-15; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-05-10.
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The press will report a DYI synthetic organism product is banned, before a 3D printed gun product is banned ( 65% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-08; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-05-10.
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Elizabeth Colbert Busch (D) defeats Mark Sanford® in the upcoming SC-1 election. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-18; known on 2013-05-02; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-05-08.
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EY posts something on “The Open Problem of Loeb-Tiling AI” within three months ( 49% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2013-02-06; known on 2013-05-06; judged right by papermachine on 2013-05-06.
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The Indian place on the site of Bagatelles will be out of business inside 2 years. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-11-11; judged right by Matt on 2013-05-05.
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Google Translate will survive 5 years ( 90% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2013-05-04.
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Google Translate will survive 5 years ( 90% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2013-05-04.
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I will attempt suicide this year ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Leo on 2012-05-02; known on 2013-05-03; judged wrong by Leo on 2013-05-03.
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Fed: unemployment won't reach 7.5% until 2014 ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03.
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Rhode Island will legalize gay marriage within two weeks ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-05-03; known on 2013-05-17; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03.
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Justin Trudeau to win Liberal Party of Canada leadership race. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2013-04-14; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-05-02.
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I will have my drivers license by May 1, 2013. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-04; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-05-01.
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The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) until at least May 1, 2013 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-16; known on 2013-05-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-01.
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xkcd “Time” will show its last unique frame before May 1 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by itaibn on 2013-03-31; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by itaibn on 2013-05-01.
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Facebook stock will go below 20 this month. ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by hedges on 2013-04-04; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by hedges on 2013-05-01.
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NL: There will be an Elfstedentocht this winter ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by dhoe on 2013-01-17; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-05-01.
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The Ouya video game console will be shipped & delivered in March 2013, on schedule. ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-18; known on 2013-04-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-04-30.
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EY posts something on “The Open Problem of Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics” within three months. ( 37% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2013-02-06; known on 2013-05-06; judged right by Malo on 2013-04-29.
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My second wisdom teeth will emerge in the next month ( 90% confidence )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-03-23; known on 2013-04-23; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-04-27.
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OOTS: While lambasting V about hir familicide, Qarr will unintentionally inspire hir to start acting. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by itaibn on 2013-04-12; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by itaibn on 2013-04-26.
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OOTS: While lambasting V about hir familicide, Qarr will unintentionally inspire hir to start acting. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by itaibn on 2013-04-12; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by itaibn on 2013-04-26.
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Ana Morales is elected President of Denison Campus Governance Association. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-26; known on 2013-04-26; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-26.
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Hung Tran is elected Vice President of Denison Campus Governance Association. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-26; known on 2013-04-26; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-26.
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Mars rover SAM instrument discovers live microorganisms in Martian soil. ( 11% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Samm on 2013-04-26.
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Mars rover SAM instrument discovers live microorganisms in Martian soil. ( 11% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Samm on 2013-04-26.
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Boston Marathon bombing perpetrated by ethnically white male. ( 61% confidence; 17 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-04-09.
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Bitcoin will be trading at $150 or higher sometime before or on Friday, April 26th. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bonavest on 2013-04-21; known on 2013-04-26; judged right by Bonavest on 2013-04-24.
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The BTCUSD rate will go below $100 within the next 5 days. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mrenouf on 2013-04-21; known on 2013-04-26; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-05-26.
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The BTCUSD rate will go below $100 within the next 5 days. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mrenouf on 2013-04-21; known on 2013-04-26; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-05-26.
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Chinese stock market index will be higher 1 year from now (measured by SSE, which is 2410 right now, on Mar 5, 2013) ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-06; known on 2013-03-05; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-04-23.