Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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XiXi: 3 ( 10% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-02-27; known on 2013-02-27; judged right by gwern on 2013-02-27.
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XiXi: 2 ( 30% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-02-27; known on 2013-02-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-27.
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XiXi: 1 ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-02-27; known on 2013-02-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-27.
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Conditional on working any days, Grognor will work 1<=x<=14 months for Walmart. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-05-14; known on 2013-08-14; judged right by Grognor on 2013-02-27.
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I will be enrolled as a student @ ASU again before 2014. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-02-27.
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Chuck Hagel will be confirmed as Secretary of Defense within one month of this prediction. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25; known on 2013-03-25; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-02-26.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 18: placebo then active? ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-02-26; known on 2013-02-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-26.
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NGE Rebuild: 3.0 will open in the beginning/middle of an Angel attack a la 2.0 ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-02-26.
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I will wake up naturally and feel refreshed and rested by Saturday, due to the 6500K CFL “sun” that is on a timer in my bedroom. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-02-18; known on 2013-02-23; judged wrong by ashrewdmint on 2013-02-25.
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Chuck Hagel will be confirmed as the Secretary of Defense within two weeks of this prediction. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-02-25; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.
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Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray: 49 million iPhone sales for December, 2012 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-25; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-25.
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Barclays analyst Ben Reitzes: Apple to sell 45.21 million iPhones in the December quarter, up 22 percent from last year. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-18; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-02-25.
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Tebow will start at least 1 NFL game next year (2012-13 NFL season) ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-28; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-25.
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NFL 2012: Falcons will win NFC South ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-02-25.
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NFL 2012: 49ers will win NFC West ( 70% confidence )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-02-25.
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NFL 2012: Steelers will win AFC North ( 60% confidence )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-25.
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NFL 2012: Lions will finish with better regular season record than the Bears ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-25.
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Anne Hathaway will win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoaoEira on 2013-02-24; known on 2013-02-25; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-02-25.
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Lincoln will win the Oscar for Best Picture. ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-10; known on 2013-02-24; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-25.
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Argo will win the Oscar Award for Best Picture ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-22; known on 2013-02-24; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.
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Daniel Day Lewis will win the Oscar for Best Actor ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-22; known on 2013-02-24; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.
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Steven Spielberg will win the Oscar for Best Director. ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-10; known on 2013-02-24; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.
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Anne Hathaway will win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress. ( 55% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-10; known on 2013-02-24; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.
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Tommy Lee Jones will win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-22; known on 2013-02-24; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.
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Geoff Greer will have a job within 6 months. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-25; known on 2013-02-25; judged right by gwern on 2013-02-25.
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“Anonymous” ORCA hack claim will make Fox News headlines in the next two weeks. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-18; known on 2012-12-02; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.
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David Axelrod will not shave his mustache within a month. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-05; known on 2012-12-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.
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United States Facebook user base will fall under 100,000,000 users by December 31, 2013. ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Joe Craig on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.
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DOJ won't file criminal charges against a C-level executive of an American bank in America based on LIBOR scandal. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-23; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.
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Twitter will win privacy fight over Occupy Wall Street tweets (at least as to email address) ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-28; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.
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Barclays analyst Ben Reitzes: Apple to sell 45.21 million iPhones in the December quarter, up 22 percent from last year. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-18; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-02-25.
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“I estimate there is a 79.4357 percent probability that Susan Rice will be confirmed early next year as secretary of State, and the vote won’t even be close.” —John Heilemann, NY Magazine ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-25; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.
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NFL: Peyton Manning will win NFL MVP in 2012-13 season ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-13; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.
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Most of the modules in Ruby's “stdlib” will be packaged and referenced as gems in release 2.0. (See http://bit.ly/uIRu4n) ( 80% confidence )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-11-07; known on 2013-06-16; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2013-02-24.
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An official 2.0 release of the Ruby language will be available on or before February 24, 2013. ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-11-07; known on 2013-02-24; judged right by muflax on 2013-02-24.
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There will be a mass shooting in the US, defined as a shooting where more than 10 people are injured or killed ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-12-16; known on 2013-02-23; judged wrong by modulus on 2013-02-23.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 17: placebo then active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-02-20; known on 2013-02-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-20.
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My Analysis raw mark will be between 34 and 44 marks out of 50 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-01-27; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-02-19.
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My Analysis raw mark will be between 34 and 44 marks out of 50 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-01-27; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-02-19.
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My Probability & Stats raw percentage will be strictly over 89.5% ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-01-27; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-02-19.
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My algebra lecturer will Facebook or Tweet or mention to me the psychoanalysis pun on my exam script. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-01-27; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-02-19.
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My algebra lecturer will Facebook or Tweet or mention to me the psychoanalysis pun on my exam script. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-01-27; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2013-02-19.
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Malcolm will attend Story Night II ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.
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Qiaochu will attend Story Night II ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.
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I will attend Story Night II ( 100% confidence )
Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged right by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.
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Jocelyn B will attend Story Night II ( 95% confidence )
Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged right by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.
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Scott R will attend Story Night II ( 95% confidence )
Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged right by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.
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Val will attend Story Night II ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.
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Alli (Val's wife) will attend Story Night II ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.
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Julia G will attend Story Night II ( 85% confidence )
Created by yaliceme on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-18; judged right by yaliceme on 2013-02-18.