PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

DNB/nicotine day 26: active? ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-13; known on 2012-10-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-13.

By the end of tomorrow (October 12th) Morendil will post part two of his LessWrong article on forecasting. ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-11; known on 2012-10-13; judged right by Pablo on 2012-10-12.

I will complete Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 3 months. ( 66% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-10-03; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-10-12.

Season 2 of Panty & Stocking With Garterbelt will be announced. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-12; known on 2012-10-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-12.

GJP: #1084 Who will win Venezuela’s 2012 presidential election? Hugo Chavez ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-10-20; judged right by scav on 2012-10-11.

when i get a girlfriend ( 30% confidence )

Created by shubham on 2012-06-04; known on 2012-09-19; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-10.

My extortionist will reply and attempt a different extortion. ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-10; known on 2012-10-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-10.

My extortionist will reply at all. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-10; known on 2012-10-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-10.

By the end of the summer, I will have memorized 1000 words in Italian. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by pkfalu92 on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by pkfalu92 on 2012-10-10.

By the end of the summer, I will have memorized over 500 words in Italian. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by pkfalu92 on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by pkfalu92 on 2012-10-10.

DNB/nicotine day 25: active? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-10; known on 2012-10-10; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-10.

There still will be queue management outside Topshop Sydney by Wednesday. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-10-04; known on 2012-10-10; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-10-10.

iPad Mini will launch in September 2012 — Brian White, Topeka Capital Markets ( 35% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-10-09.

DNB/nicotine day 24: active? ( 60% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-09; known on 2012-10-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-09.

LSD microdosing experiment: pair 1: placebo then active? ( 45% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-08; known on 2012-10-09; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-08.

Andrea Rossi's 1 MW plant based on his energy catalyzer invention will not succeed within a year. ( 96% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2012-10-08; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-08.

Chavez will not be re-elected president of Venezuela on October 07, 2012. ( 33% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by alexguerrero on 2011-11-17; known on 2012-10-07; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-10-08.

Before January 1, 2020, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore’s algorithm or some similar algorithm. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-10-07.

I will implement obstacles in my game today. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-10-05; known on 2012-10-05; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-10-05.

Someone on Fox News or one of the headlines on their website will claim that Mitt Romney won the 2012-10-03 presidential debate. ( 83% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by aaronsw on 2012-10-03; known on 2012-10-04; judged right by aaronsw on 2012-10-04.

US domestic movie box office for summer in 2012 will be higher than 2011 ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-26; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-10-03.

User Epiphany will cease commenting or posting on LW within a month ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-03; known on 2012-10-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-03.

DNB/nicotine day 23: active? ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-03; known on 2012-10-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-03.

DNB/nicotine day 23: active? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-02; known on 2012-10-02; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-02.

All previously published SI research papers will be typeset in the new template before the end of the month. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2012-10-01.

I'll have read through chapter 20 in HPMoR by the end of this month. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2012-10-01.

Eliezer will start posting his Open FAI problems sequence to LessWrong.com in September 2012. ( 47% confidence; 16 wagers )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2012-10-01.

“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 30 Sep 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-10-01.

By 2012-10-01, I will have written a book of fiction that has at least 50,000 words and has been read by at least 50 people. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by Kaj_Sotala on 2012-10-01.

The self-referentiality of this prediction will have significant consequences by the end of September 2012 ( 0% confidence )

Created by zeropercent on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by zeropercent on 2012-10-01.

[Breaking Bad Season 5] Hank will see Walt in some context associated with the pest control company, causing him to realize that he's hiding something… again. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by quicklystarfish on 2012-07-30; known on 2014-01-30; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-10-01.

DNB/nicotine day 22: active? ( 55% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-01; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-01.

I will play Guild Wars 2 for more than 10 hours in the next week ( 50% confidence )

Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-09-24; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-09-30.

I will play WoW for less than 5 hours this week ( 90% confidence )

Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-09-24; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by wallowinmaya on 2012-09-30.

DNB/nicotine day 21: active? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-30; known on 2012-09-30; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-30.

I will finish my PhD degree within the next three years. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2009-12-30; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-09-27.

The NFL and the refs won't come to a labor agreement before Oct 1 ( 65% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-31; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-09-27.

I will add a glossary to my Less Wrong article within 24 hours. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-26; known on 2012-09-27; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-27.

DNB/nicotine day 20: active? ( 65% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-27; known on 2012-09-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-27.

If I trade in my 2006 Scion tC this month, then I will get equal to or greater than $5,600 for it. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-11; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-26.

DNB/nicotine day 19: active? ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-26; known on 2012-09-26; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-26.

In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-18; known on 2022-09-19; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-25.

In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-18; known on 2022-09-19; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-25.

DNB/nicotine day 18: active? ( 45% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-24; known on 2012-09-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-24.

I will complete Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next month. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-08-03; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-24.

An earthquake >8 on Richter scale occurs in California in June 2012 ( 0% confidence )

Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-24.

Luke Muehlhauser will cease regularly using modafinil more than 3 times a week or will report tolerance ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-28; known on 2012-10-28; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-24.

DNB/nicotine day 17: active? ( 65% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-24; known on 2012-09-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-24.

I will finish reading GEB before I go to college. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ahartell on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-09-23; judged wrong by ahartell on 2012-09-23.

Romney will eventually release more tax returns, before 2012 election ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-16; known on 2012-11-30; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-09-22.

Statistics

Judged Predictions