PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

'Google will buy Twitter' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

'Google will buy Twitter' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

The Dow will close under 8,000 (in Oct. 2009 dollars) before Dec. 31st, 2010. ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by tommccabe on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-16.

ARNA's stock price will be over $30 on Jan 15, 2011 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Mo_Money_2make on 2010-08-23; known on 2011-01-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-16.

MNKD's stock price will be over $20 by Jan 15, 2011 ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mo_Money_2make on 2010-08-23; known on 2011-01-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-16.

'Iran will test a nuclear weapon.' in 2011 —Capitol Commentary ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

'Iran will test a nuclear weapon.' in 2011 —Capitol Commentary ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

“[Peter] Schiff sees a multiyear recession ahead marked by rampant inflation, a steadily weakening dollar, soaring commodities prices, slumping U.S. stock indexes, and falling wages.” ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2011-01-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-10.

“Android-descended smartphones outnumber iPhone-descended smartphones” —dfranke ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-09.

Muse will tour Australia again by the end of the year ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Chris31 on 2010-03-20; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-06.

There will be another major natural disaster before the years over ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-06.

Will this prediction have an average prediction of less than 50%? (The only way to be right is if more people predict the opposite of you) ( 49% confidence; 31 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JFE on 2010-07-02; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JFE on 2011-01-06.

“Global Average Temperature for 2010 to be higher than for 2009” —Intrade ( 96% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2011-01-03; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-05.

Julian Assange will not be convicted in Sweden of charges related to August 2010 ( 73% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.

'The first Youtube millionaire emerges' in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.

'Google will buy Twitter' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

'Google will buy Twitter' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

'Google will buy Twitter' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

'Google will buy Twitter' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

'The first Youtube millionaire emerges' in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.

Julian Assange will not be convicted in Sweden of charges related to August 2010 ( 73% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Obama's approval rating will be lower 1 Jan 2012 than 1 Jan 2011. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-10; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-10.

Obama's approval rating will be lower 1 Jan 2012 than 1 Jan 2011. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-10; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-10.

By January 1, 2011 one or more of the following will happen (1) Israel will launch a military attack against Iran, (2) The U.S. will launch a military attack against Iran or (3) a significant number of countries will ban the sale of gasoline to Iran. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JamesMiller on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-02.

“Average Global Temperature for 2010 to be among five warmest years on record” —Intrade ( 96% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2011-01-02; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-02.

r.org will reach 100,000 pageviews a week at least once before the end of 2010 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Frank on 2010-08-15; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by Frank on 2011-01-02.

Hyperinflation by 2011 —Gonzalo Lira ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-28; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Larks on 2011-01-01.

Another beloved celebrity will die before the year is over ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by maskath@hotmail.com on 2010-06-04; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.

The current UK coalition government will last until the end of 2010 ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by benj on 2010-08-26; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by Larks on 2011-01-01.

I will sign up for cryonics by December 31st 2010 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Larks on 2010-07-22; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by Larks on 2011-01-01.

Australia will change drinking age to 21 ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by kassey on 2010-02-10; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.

I will still identify as Theist in a year ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by MrHen on 2010-02-03; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by MrHen on 2011-01-01.

I will re-read the Haruhi novels & finish my Haruhi essay by 2011. ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.

PredictionBook will not be meaningfully integrated into LessWrong.com before 2011. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.

Carr-Benkler wager: by 2011 most big content sites (Digg, Flickr, YouTube etc.) will be professional than amateur driven. ( 1% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.

“Average Global Temperature for 2010 to be the warmest on record” —Intrade ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.

Subversion will not be released in 2010. ( 98% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-24; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.

“By 2011 a mother will have the entire genome sequence of her unborn child from her own blood.” —Jonathan M. Rothberg ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.

Roman Polanski will be extradited to the United States before the end of next year. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.

My Sony VAIO laptop will still be functional enough to watch/listen to streamed YouTube videos at the end of 2010, with no part upgrades costing > $15. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by olimay on 2011-01-01.

All my immediate family members will be either alive or have had their brains successfully cryopreserved at the beginning of 2011. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by olimay on 2011-01-01.

The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.

Bank of England Base rate will be 1% or less on 31 December 2010 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by koenfucius on 2010-07-21; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by koenfucius on 2010-12-31.

“AIG to repay all TARP funds by midnight ET on 31 Dec 2010” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.

“Global Temperature Anomaly for Sep 2010 to be greater than 0.50 Degrees C” —Intrade ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.

“Global Temperature Anomaly for Aug 2010 to be greater than 0.50 Degrees C” —Intrade ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.

“Global Temperature Anomaly for Jul 2010 to be greater than 0.50 Degrees C” —Intrade ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.

“10 or more people will be killed on US soil, or on a flight to or from the US, during 2010 as the result of a deliberate attack by a party with a political goal, not overtly the act of any state” ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.

“In 2010 more diesel passenger vehicles will be sold in the US than hybrids.” ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.

“Construction of 'Ground Zero mosque' to commence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2010” —Intrade ( 15% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-11; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.

Statistics

Judged Predictions