PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Judged Predictions

“There will be a quantum computer with over 100 qubits of processing capability sold either as a hardware system or whose use is made available as a commercial service by Dec 31, 2010” ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
“Before the holidays, Amazon will cut the price of the Wi-Fi Kindle to $99, and the 3G version will go for $150 or less.” —Farhad Manjoo ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
The spot price of silver will be $20/ounce or higher on December 31, 2010. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
“By 2010, more than 50 percent of books sold worldwide will be printed on demand at the point of sale in the form of library-quality paperbacks.” ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
The spot price of gold will be $1200/ounce or above on December 31, 2010. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by dakyne on 2009-12-09; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
The share price of gold is going to increase by 5% by the end of 2010. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Marz on 2010-03-24; known on 2010-12-30; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
“Technical analyst Robert Prechter on Monday said he sees the United States losing its top AAA credit rating by the end of 2010, as he stuck by a deeply bearish outlook on the U.S. economy and stock market.” ( 5% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
“The Budget car rental brand will be eliminated in favor of Avis” —Douglas A. McIntyre ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
“GM will close the Saturn brand” —Douglas A. McIntyre ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
“Esquire magazine will fold” —Douglas A. McIntyre ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
“Architectural Digest Magazine will fold” —Douglas A. McIntyre ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
“Gap will close Old Navy” —Douglas A. McIntyre ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
“Chrysler brand will be discontinued, Jeep & Dodge will remain” —Douglas McIntyre ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
“United Airlines will merge with a competitor and the brand will disappear” —Douglas A. McIntyre ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
Iran will not produce a nuclear bomb before the end of 2010. —Bruce Bueno de Mesquita ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
Arena Pharmaceuticals' anti-obesity drug Lorcaserin will be FDA-approved by December 31, 2010. ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
“A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2010” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
“BP to announce before midnight ET 31 Dec 2010 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy [in US]” —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
“BP to enter bankruptcy in the United Kingdom before midnight ET 31 Dec 2010” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
Microsoft will release a variant of the XBox 360 bundled with Natal next Fall. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
We will have <=7 inches of snow in a flat part of the garden tomorrow. ( 80% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2010-12-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-27.
Kelly Slater will win his 10th world title in 2010 ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by joloughlin on 2009-06-03; known on 2010-12-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-16.
Nicole Richie for a third baby in 2010 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Holly on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-12-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-16.
“There is no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant [> 3%] market share.” —Steve Ballmer ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2011-03-31; judged wrong by gimpf on 2010-12-12.
PredictionBook will not be meaningfully integrated into LessWrong.com before 2011. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.
PredictionBook will not be meaningfully integrated into LessWrong.com before 2011. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.
PredictionBook will not be meaningfully integrated into LessWrong.com before 2011. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.
PredictionBook will not be meaningfully integrated into LessWrong.com before 2011. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.
Justin Bieber's voice will break in the coming year. ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by DianneD on 2010-05-04; known on 2010-12-04; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-10.
UCSB men's soccer team will reach the 2010 Soccer Cup, college soccer's final four. ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by dakyne on 2010-08-11; known on 2010-12-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-10.
I think that I'll have some predictions into predictionbook by the end of this week ( 90% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by bretcav on 2010-12-05; known on 2010-12-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-10.
Bret's spreadsheet issue is screen resolution related. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Matt on 2010-12-01; known on 2010-12-02; judged right by bretcav on 2010-12-05.
The US Fed will increase interest rates by November 2010. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by kochikvp on 2010-08-27; known on 2010-11-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-11-16.
North Korea will attack G20 summit with chemical or biological weapons ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2010-11-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-11-14.
Iran's current regime will continue its nuclear program — or be overthrown — rather than accept the current (Oct 2009) offer to have nuclear materials processed elsewhere (such as Russia). ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by robo45h on 2009-11-13; known on 2010-11-13; judged right by gwern on 2010-11-13.
“The U.S. will not pull all of its troops out of Iraq until the 10 largest corporations in the U.S. use their influence to make it happen. I don't see this as a possibility until after Nov. 9, 2010 the next mid-term elections.” ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2010-11-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-11-09.
Atlanta Braves will make it to the NLCS. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Mo_Money_2make on 2010-08-23; known on 2010-11-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-11-07.
California will receive a bailout from the Federal government in 2010. ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 18 comments )

Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by dakyne on 2010-11-03.
California's Proposition 19 will be approved. (This doesn't cover legal action after the election, just that it gets a simple majority.) ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ggreer on 2010-09-30; known on 2010-11-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-11-03.
MNKD will sign a partner for AFREZZA by November 1, 2010 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mo_Money_2make on 2010-08-23; known on 2010-11-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-11-01.
A 2nd US retailer will receive a letter from the FDA ordering them to cease selling piracetam products. ( 70% confidence; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-02; known on 2010-10-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-31.
Anti-obesity drug Qnexa will be denied FDA approval (or delayed). ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by dakyne on 2010-07-30; known on 2010-10-28; judged right by gwern on 2010-10-29.
The creators of this site will allow some sort of lesswrong.com ideology to leak into the behavior of this site and undermine an otherwise useful gadget. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2010-10-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-27.
ARNA will be approved by the FDA on October 22, 2010 ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mo_Money_2make on 2010-08-23; known on 2010-10-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-24.
“NYT will not be owned by the same company 18 months from now.” —Michael Wolff ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2010-10-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-21.
I'll get back to Joe with an estimate before close of business Wednesday. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Matt on 2010-10-16; known on 2010-10-20; judged right by Matt on 2010-10-20.
Why The Lucky Stiff will proffer an explanation for his absence in the next year. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2010-10-15; judged wrong by jes5199 on 2010-10-15.
There will be a storm/hurricane event killing more than 5000 people before 14 October 2010. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-14.
The sun will not become a nova during this year. ( 99% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by gwern on 2010-10-14.
There will be a transport (train, air, boat etc) accident killing more than 1000 people before 14 october 2010. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-14.