Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Someone will be sick during or after the field trip on the beach. The trip will be very hard for contemporary well protected people to undergo difficult circumstance. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Eun on 2011-03-01; known on 2011-03-08; judged right by Eunseo on 2011-03-08.
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My house mate declared that she has quited smoking from today. However, she will restart smoking in a week. ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Eunseo on 2011-03-07; known on 2011-03-14; judged right by Eunseo on 2011-03-08.
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Every student will come to join yoga class.20% of them will join another yoga class individually. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by dumun on 2011-03-08; known on 2011-03-31; judged wrong by dumun on 2011-03-31.
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I will finish reading the drowned world and at least 4 papers before class by Tuesday ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-07; known on 2011-03-08; judged wrong by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-08.
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ben will not make it back to comp lab by 4pm. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-08; known on 2011-03-08; judged right by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-08.
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Every student will come to join yoga class.20% of them will join another yoga class individually. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by dumun on 2011-03-08; known on 2011-03-31; judged wrong by dumun on 2011-03-31.
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Milan will beat Spurs on Wednesday. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-07; known on 2011-03-10; judged wrong by dumun on 2011-03-10.
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possible shower this weekend. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-03; known on 2011-03-05; judged right by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-07.
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I will finish reading the drowned world & island, and will read at least 2 of the papers by tuesday ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-03; known on 2011-03-07; judged wrong by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-07.
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I will read at least one chapter of a book tonight. ( 80% confidence )
Created by maxdemian on 2011-03-07; known on 2011-03-07; judged right by maxdemian on 2011-03-07.
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“About 18 months from now, 80 percent of newspapers will be gone.” —Michael Wolff ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2011-05-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-07.
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'1000 dollars per Bitcoin by the end of the year.' —Bruce Wagner ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-07.
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The SIU Saluki men's basketball team will win 15 or more games in the 2010 – 2011 regular season, including the MVC tournament. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by dakyne on 2010-10-07; known on 2011-03-07; judged wrong by dakyne on 2011-03-07.
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'1000 dollars per Bitcoin by the end of the year.' —Bruce Wagner ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-07.
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“About 18 months from now, 80 percent of newspapers will be gone.” —Michael Wolff ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2011-05-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-07.
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I will finish reading the drowned world & island, and will read at least 2 of the papers by tuesday ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-03; known on 2011-03-07; judged wrong by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-07.
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I will finish reading the drowned world & island, and will read at least 2 of the papers by tuesday ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-03; known on 2011-03-07; judged wrong by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-07.
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We will receive rain Friday, Saturday and Sunday because we are going to camp on a deserted beach! ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-03-01; known on 2011-03-06; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-03-07.
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I will call my brother on his birthday. ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-03; known on 2011-03-06; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-07.
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UCSB Gauchos men's basketball team will be the #1 seed in the 2011 Big West Conference tournament. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by dakyne on 2010-08-11; known on 2011-03-06; judged wrong by dakyne on 2011-03-06.
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'Oil price will go over $100/barrel at some time this year' —scav ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by scav on 2011-03-03.
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80% of my students will have signed up to prediction book and make eight or more predictions by the end of May ( 40% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-02-16; known on 2011-05-30; judged right by DavidPercival on 2011-03-01.
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There’s between $5 and $50 in the change jar (inclusive, counted by machine) ( 99% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-02-27; known on 2011-02-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-01.
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There’s between $11 and $36 in the change jar (inclusive, counted by machine) ( 90% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-02-27; known on 2011-02-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-01.
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There's between $16 and $26 in the change jar (inclusive, counted by machine) ( 75% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-02-27; known on 2011-02-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-01.
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There's between $18.00 and $24.00 in the change jar (counted by machine). ( 50% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-02-27; known on 2011-02-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-01.
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There is between $20.00 and $22.00 in my change jar (as determined by counting machine). ( 5% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-02-27; known on 2011-02-28; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-01.
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My estimate of the change in my change jar, $21.06, is exactly right (as determined by counting machine). ( 0% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-02-27; known on 2011-02-28; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-03-01.
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Toy Story 3 will win 2011 Best Animated Oscar. —John Scalzi ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-27; known on 2011-02-27; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-28.
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Amy Adams will win 2011 Best Supporting Actress Oscar. —John Scalzi ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-27; known on 2011-02-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-02-28.
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Christian Bale will win 2011 Supporting Actor Oscar —John Scalzi ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-27; known on 2011-02-27; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-28.
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Natalie Portman will win 2011 Best Actress Oscar —John Scalzi ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-27; known on 2011-02-27; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-28.
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Colin Firth will win 2011 Best Actor Oscar. —John Scalzi ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-27; known on 2011-02-27; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-28.
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The King's Speech will win 2011 Best Picture Oscar —Scalzi ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-27; known on 2011-02-27; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-28.
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David Fincher will win 2011 Best Director Oscar —John Scalzi ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-27; known on 2011-02-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-02-28.
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the new guy will continually to wear well ironed shirts into the office until at least the 10th of March 2011. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-02-16; known on 2011-03-10; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-02-24.
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'the next Mayor of Chicago is Rahm Emanuel' —SarahC ( 86% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2011-02-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-23.
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I will complete both canyons (measured from bike to bike) in under 10 hours (http://bit.ly/eftmXP) ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-02-19; known on 2011-02-20; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-02-20.
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I will complete both canyons (measured from bike to bike) in under 6 hours (http://bit.ly/eftmXP) ( 50% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-02-19; known on 2011-02-20; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-02-20.
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Borders will merge, be bought, or file for bankruptcy by 2013. ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2013-01-11; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-17.
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the new guy will continually to wear well ironed shirts into the office until at least the 10th of March 2011. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-02-16; known on 2011-03-10; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-02-24.
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the new guy will continually to wear well ironed shirts into the office until at least the 10th of March 2011. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-02-16; known on 2011-03-10; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-02-24.
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Ken Jennings will defeat Watson at Jeopardy! ( 80% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2011-03-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-02-16.
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Mubarak will cease to be Egypt's President by 2012. ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-11.
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If Australia win the Ashes back, Ricky ponting will retire from all forms of the game. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2011-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-09.
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The New York Jets will win the Superbowl in 2011. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pdaveybean on 2010-10-29; known on 2011-02-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-02-07.
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Jared Loughner will be reported to be a registered Republican or Conservative, or will be reported to have attended a Tea Party event/rally ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-08; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-02-03.
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'No big Internet IPOs. Zynga, LinkedIn, Facebook, Yelp, Groupon.' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-28.
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Summer Wars will be nominated for the 2011 Best Animated Feature Oscar. ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-24; known on 2011-02-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-25.
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Twitter will disappear by the end of the year. ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by DianneD on 2010-03-03; known on 2010-03-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-01-21.