Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 99% confidence; 26 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by jasticE on 2010-10-14.
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ALXA's Staccato will be FDA-approved on October 11, 2010. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2010-08-11; known on 2010-10-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-11.
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We will not have all American combat troops out of Iraq by next October. ( 62% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-20; known on 2010-10-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-02.
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Wikipedia: User:Arbitrarily0 will say User:Gwern changed the Saimoe AfD from redirect/delete to no consensus ( 85% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-30; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-10-02.
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Blackburn will win the Eastern Footy League premiership ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by chrisknows on 2010-04-19; known on 2010-10-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-01.
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“Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.” —James Miller ( 9% confidence; 20 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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“Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.” —James Miller ( 9% confidence; 20 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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Trike'll have put four developers onto the LW codebase for a weeklong sprint by Sat 2nd Oct. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2010-08-30; known on 2010-10-02; judged right by Matt on 2010-09-30.
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Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jasticE on 2020-02-01.
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Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jasticE on 2020-02-01.
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The price of gold will exceed $1300 USD / oz at some point in the next 6 months. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Matt Newport on 2010-06-11; known on 2010-12-16; judged right by dakyne on 2010-09-27.
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2010 Grand Final will be Geelong vs. Western Bulldogs ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by harmonix on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-09-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-27.
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“the Apple tablet will be a flop next year” —Scott Moritz ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-26.
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“I've got to think this device [iPad] would be a flop. This concept is such a train wreck from start to finish that I don’t know where to begin.” —Michael Scalisi ( 0% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2010-12-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-26.
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I predict Collingwood will win the AFL Grand final in 2010. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dusty.brouwer on 2010-05-11; known on 2010-09-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-26.
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Dogs will win the AFL flag this year ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by mktg2010 on 2010-03-14; known on 2010-09-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-26.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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FlashFoward will be renewed for a second season ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by MrHen on 2010-02-23; known on 2010-07-16; judged wrong by MrHen on 2010-09-23.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Trike'll have put four developers onto the LW codebase for a weeklong sprint by Sat 18th Sept. [dashboard team strength 60%] ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2010-08-30; known on 2010-09-18; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-09-18.
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ARNA will have a Advisory Committee vote with at least 75% members voting for approval ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Mo_Money_2make on 2010-08-23; known on 2010-09-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-17.
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Fringe will be renewed for a third season ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by MrHen on 2010-02-23; known on 2010-09-16; judged right by gwern on 2010-09-16.
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Radiopaedia's visitor traffic will reach 100K/month before Sept 2010 ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Frank on 2009-09-25; known on 2010-11-16; judged right by Frank on 2010-09-16.
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I will end up working at RMH before the end of 2010 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Frank on 2009-09-25; known on 2011-01-16; judged wrong by Frank on 2010-09-16.
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Julia Gillard will win the next federal election. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Frank on 2010-06-27; known on 2011-01-16; judged right by Frank on 2010-09-16.
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Iowa State University will beat University of Iowa in football next season ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2010-09-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-13.
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Aaron will become the follower of Jacob and will be the ruler of the island. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by monamur on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-11.
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Aaron will get back to the island ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by melissasajeh on 2010-03-29; known on 2010-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-11.
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Collingwood will finish top 4 ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Pie4Life on 2010-06-01; known on 2010-09-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-09-11.
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Richmond will win the 2010 AFL wooden spoon ( 100% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pie4Life on 2010-06-01; known on 2010-09-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-11.
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Google Wave will change the way we E-Mail/IM/Communicate ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-01; known on 2010-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-01.
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Peter Garret will split from Labour to form another political party within the next six months. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2010-09-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-01.
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Phrack issue #67 will not be released August 2010. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2010-09-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-09-01.
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The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.
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Lucas Sloan will be admitted into UC Berkeley. ( 80% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2010-05-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-08-27.
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r.org traffic will start to increase again in july 2010 ( 72% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Frank on 2010-06-27; known on 2010-08-16; judged right by Frank on 2010-08-16.
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Interest rates will be increased again in the next 4 months. ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Marz on 2010-04-13; known on 2010-08-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-08-13.
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The Miami Heat will win the 2011 NBA championship. ( 65% confidence )
Created by makemoniesonline on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-06-16; judged right by makemoniesonline on 2010-08-12.
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California will receive a bailout from the Federal government in 2010. ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by dakyne on 2010-11-03.
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California will receive a bailout from the Federal government in 2010. ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by dakyne on 2010-11-03.
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“10 startups i think will be acquired soon: evernote, posterous/tumblr, twitter, animoto, tweetdeck/seesmic, stardoll, etsy, apture. agree?” —Ouriel Odhayon ( 0% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2010-08-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-08-10.
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there will be a vulcanic explosion in Japan! ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by guru on 2010-04-05; known on 2010-04-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-08-09.
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there will be a vulcanic explosion in Japan! ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by guru on 2010-04-05; known on 2010-04-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-08-09.
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'Dockers' will defeat 'Crows' in Round 1 ( 50% confidence )
Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-28; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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'Crows' will defeat 'Dockers' in Round 1 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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'Bulldogs' will defeat 'Magpies' in Round 1 ( 50% confidence )
Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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'Magpies' will defeat 'Bulldogs' in Round 1 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-28; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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'Power' will defeat 'Kangaroos' in Round 1 ( 50% confidence )
Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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'Kangaroos' will defeat 'Power' in Round 1 ( 50% confidence )
Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-28; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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'Swans' will defeat 'Saints' in Round 1 ( 50% confidence )
Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.