Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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I will travel to CHI '17 to present a paper I wrote. ( 45% confidence )
Created by trishume on 2016-04-07; known on 2017-05-16; judged wrong by trishume on 2016-09-16.
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Trump wins New York primary ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-06; known on 2016-04-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-20.
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Hilary wins New York primary ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-06; known on 2016-04-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-20.
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6183331e9007a573863190a476a3abb8 quits SaskTel ( 43% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known on 2020-06-01.
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At least one Sask Party MLA elected in 2016 put in jail ( 58% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known on 2020-04-20.
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SaskTel privatized ( 21% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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STC is privatized ( 59% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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SaskTel lays off at least 100 full time employees. ( 32% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-12.
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SaskTel is legislated back to work as “Essential Services” ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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SaskTel goes on strike ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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UK Police will have the ability to scan people's faces from their cars as they drive past, as they do with License plates ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-07-10.
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Ted Cruz to gain a majority of the delegates from the Wisconsin primary. ( 84% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-05; known on 2016-04-06; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-06.
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Donald Trumps Wins New York Republican Primary 2016 ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-05; known on 2016-04-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-20.
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Hillary Clinton Wins New York Democratic Primary 2016 ( 71% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-05; known on 2016-04-20; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-04-20.
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Clinton chooses Michael B. Coleman as running mate. ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-04-05; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Within fifty (50) years, what is today known as the Panama Papers will be generally agreed upon to have been leaked by a US Govt operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation. ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-04-04; known on 2066-04-05.
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“Skulk” will be an evergreen keyword in Magic: The Gathering within 3 years. ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-04-04; known on 2019-04-04; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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Grave Scrabbler will be reprinted in the Magic: The Gathering expansion Eldritch Moon. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-04-04; known on 2016-07-16; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-07-09.
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Greece will default on it's sovereign debt, or exit the Eurozone (possibly both) by the end of 2017 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2016-04-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2018-01-01.
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Ted Cruz will be linked to a sex scandal before year end. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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It will be exposed that a current presidential candidate was involved in a sex scandal by year end. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Osuniev on 2016-11-21.
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We will leave tomorrow. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Qwonvo on 2016-04-03; known on 2016-04-04; judged wrong by Qwonvo on 2016-04-04.
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X will make >2 derogatory statements concerning religion. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Qwonvo on 2016-04-02; known on 2016-04-02; judged right by Qwonvo on 2016-04-03.
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X will make <5 signs of anger this evening. ( 54% confidence )
Created by Qwonvo on 2016-04-02; known on 2016-04-03; judged right by Qwonvo on 2016-04-03.
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I will fall asleep in the wedding ceremony. ( 87% confidence )
Created by Qwonvo on 2016-04-02; known on 2016-04-02; judged wrong by Qwonvo on 2016-04-03.
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I will say something that will trigger 3>laughs in the next 8 hours. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Qwonvo on 2016-04-02; known on 2016-04-03; judged right by Qwonvo on 2016-04-03.
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Donald J Trump will pick Monica Lewinsky as his running mate. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-02; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-03.
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A terrorist incident involving the death of 1 or more Americans occurs before year end on American soil (excludes perpetrators). ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-13.
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SpaceX to successfully land the first stage on a droneship in the CRS-8 launch. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-01; known on 2016-04-25; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-08.
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The Anthropocene Working Group decides Anthropocene is a true geologic epoch ( 59% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-01; known on 2016-10-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-01.
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Norway will stop regular postal delivery to private houses of regular people by 2030 ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by silacoid on 2016-03-31; known on 2030-01-01.
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Utah will go to somebody other than the GOP nominee in 2016. ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-30; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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I run Freedom 24/7 for the next week ( 80% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-03-30; known on 2016-04-08; judged right by ioannes on 2016-04-08.
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I finish the Nanodegree 5th project by EOD Sunday. ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-03-28; known on 2016-04-04; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-04-05.
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Syrian government will take Raqqa from Islamic State this year. ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-27; known on 2016-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-12-26.
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Iraqi government will retake Mosul from Islamic State this year. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-27; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-12-26.
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IRNSS satellite navigation constellation will be complete by July. 6/7 Satellites already launched. ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-27; known on 2016-07-16; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-05-06.
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I will travel to Lyons on Monday ( 95% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-03-26; known on 2016-03-29; judged right by ioannes on 2016-03-29.
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Before May 2017 there will be a sub-$1000 (USD, pre-tax/shipping) VR HMD with >= 2K pixels (either direction) per eye, shipping to at least some of the general public ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-25; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-01.
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A male friend of mine will marry a woman, only to have it revealed later that she's transitioning to being a man ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-25; known on 2023-01-01.
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Tablet market continues to decline for at least 2 of the next 4 fiscal quarters. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-25; known on 2017-03-25.
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A major fast food restaurant, or a 3rd-party company attempts drone delivery within 5 years. (Judgment right if available in more than one area) ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-25; known on 2021-03-25.
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Apple makes significant changes to display technology of future iPhone (i.e. OLED, extends to edge of phone, different glass, Tupac hologram capability) ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-25; known on 2016-06-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-09-08.
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Next MacBook Pro release excludes 3.5mm headphone jack or becomes incorporated in a different IO port. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-25; known on 2016-06-16; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2019-08-01.
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Next Apple iPhone (7, not SE) excludes 3.5mm headphone jack. ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-25; known on 2016-08-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-09-07.
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Planet Nine will turn out to actually exist ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by artir on 2016-03-24; known on 2018-01-01.
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Trump names his running mate before GOP convention. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-24; known on 2016-11-16; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2016-07-17.
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House of Representatives selects next POTUS. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-24; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-16.
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Hillary Clinton will win the U.S. general election on November 8, 2016. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ren on 2016-03-24; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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LambdaConf will uninvite Curtis Yarvin before the conference begins ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-24; known on 2016-05-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-05-24.
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AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2023 ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2023-01-01.
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Wolfsburg wins 2016 Champions League ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Andrew MacFie on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-05-28; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2016-04-12.
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Benfica wins 2016 Champions League ( 1% confidence )
Created by Andrew MacFie on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-05-28; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2016-04-15.
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PSG wins 2016 Champions League ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Andrew MacFie on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-05-28; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2016-04-12.
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Atletico Madrid wins 2016 Champions League ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Andrew MacFie on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-05-28; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2016-05-28.
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Manchester City wins 2016 Champions League ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Andrew MacFie on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-05-28; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-05-04.
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Real Madrid wins 2016 Champions League ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Andrew MacFie on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-05-28; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2016-05-28.
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Barcelona wins 2016 Champions League ( 40% confidence )
Created by Andrew MacFie on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-05-28; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2016-04-15.
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UMaine Machias will offer me a non-tenure track lecture position before April 2. ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-04-03; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-03.
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UMaine Machias will offer me a tenure track position before April 2. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-04-03; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-03.
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Scotland will have another independence referendum and the result will be YES. ( 42% confidence; 16 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-03-23; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-02.
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2017 US Congress SENATE to be controlled by democrats. ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-11-13; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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2017 US Congress HOUSE to be controlled by republicans. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-11-13; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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GiveWell and the Open Philanthropy Project will legally separate into two organizations by December 2017 ( 90% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-03-23; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15.
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GiveWell and the Open Philanthropy Project will legally separate into two organizations by the end of 2016 ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-03-23; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-11.
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AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2019 ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-01-01.
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Falcon Heavy test flight by end of 2017 ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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Falcon Heavy test flight by January 15, 2017 ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-16.
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Falcon Heavy test flight by November 30, 2016 ( 32% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-12-01.
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Sydney from Grrlpower will get another level-up before March 22, 2017 (real time). ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2017-03-23; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-03-23.
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I finish my nanodegree program by EOD 5/15 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-03-22; known on 2016-05-16; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-05-16.
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I finish my nanodegree by the end of April 2016 ( 60% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-03-22; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-05-02.
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I will submit my upcoming project by EOD Friday, 4/8 ( 85% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-03-22; known on 2016-04-08; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-04-08.
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I will submit my upcoming project by April 1, 2016 ( 40% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-03-22; known on 2016-04-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-04-01.
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Third party candidate gets more votes than Trump. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-22; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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If nominated, Trump will win zero electoral votes. ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-22; known on 2017-02-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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Alibaba will surpass Walmart as world's No1 retailer measured in gross merchandise volume. ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-22; known on 2016-12-25; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-04-26.
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Trump takes fewer electoral votes than Goldwater. ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-21; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Macron candidat 2017 ( 12% confidence )
Created by leo_gri on 2016-03-21; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by leo_gri on 2017-01-01.
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Dilma Rousseff will be president of Brazil until 2018 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by daniel74f on 2016-03-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by jesseh on 2016-11-10.
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Debian Stretch goes Stable ( 62% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-11.
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Fundamental Change to Debian Release Structure: No Longer Offers Both Stable & Testing Releases ( 19% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-20; known on 2018-01-01.
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In 2019, I’ll be able to get a pizza delivered to my house by a robot. ( 38% confidence; 15 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-20; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-21.
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For snow-related reasons I will be told to work from home on Monday. ( 88% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-20; known on 2016-03-21; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-21.
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On Jan 1, 2019 my bmi will be between 19 and 21.5. (Withdrawn if I’m >3 months pregnant in 2018.) ( 87% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2019-01-15.
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On Jan 1, 2018 my bmi will be between 19 and 21.5. (Withdrawn if I’m >3 months pregnant in 2017.) ( 90% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2018-01-02.
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On Jan 1, 2017 my bmi will be between 19 and 21.5. (Withdrawn if I’m >3 months pregnant in 2016.) ( 95% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-20; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2017-01-01.
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Frente Amplio will win in the 2019 Uruguayan general elections. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by daniel74f on 2016-03-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.
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European Union long term growth rate will average 1.4% real gdp annually. ( 100% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-19; known on 2040-12-25.
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USA economy's long-run rate of growth of per-capita real GDP over the next 25 years will be 0.9% due to demography, education, inequality, and the federal debt —Robert J Gordon Stanley G. Harris Professor,Social Sciences Northwestern University. ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-19; known on 2041-12-25.
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Young girls will stop gossiping in Saskatoon ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Martin Shkreli convicted of a US crime before 2018. ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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At least one of my Inter-Library Loan requests come in while I'm out of the city travelling ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-17; known on 2016-04-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-22.
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My upcoming train trip is delayed over 6.5 hours. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-17; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-22.
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Someone else will judge the outcome of this prediction ( 100% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-17; known on 2100-01-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-03-17.
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Soyuz TMA-20M spacecraft carrying the International Space Station crew of cosmonauts Alexey Ovchinin and Oleg Skripochka and astronaut Jeffrey Williams will reach ISS. ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-17; known on 2016-03-18; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-19.
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Green Party MLA elected in Saskatchewan Election 2016 ( 24% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-16; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-05.
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Liberal MLA elected in Saskatchewan Election 2016 ( 19% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-16; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-05.
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NDP minority government in Saskatchewan Provincial Election 2016 ( 0% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-16; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-05.
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NDP full wipe out in Saskatchewan Provincial Election 2016 ( 24% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-16; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-05.