Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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Trump wins California ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-02; known on 2016-07-09; judged right by ioannes on 2016-06-21.
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Trump wins Indiana ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-02; known on 2016-05-05; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-05-04.
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I will go to San Francisco tomorrow. ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-02; known on 2016-05-03; judged right by ioannes on 2016-05-03.
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ASOIAF : Zrrerra snyyf gb fyniref, Zvffnaqrv rafynirq ( 42% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-02; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-25.
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ASOIAF : Wbua Fabj unf Gnetnelra oybbq naq qbrf abg ohea sebz qentbaf ( 42% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-02; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-09-03.
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Asoiaf: Neln Fgnex vf encrq ol gur znal snprq tbq. ( 42% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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Civil War in Venezuela ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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War in Venezuela and/or Venezuela invaded by one of its neighbours ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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If TRUMP gets 1237 before convention the GOP elites will do a news conference with somber tone explaining why with all the dangers our country faces they can not in good judgement allow him to be the nominee and deny him the nomination ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by julietales22 on 2016-05-01; known on 2016-07-16; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-07-16.
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Lewandowski to transfer to Arsenal in Summer 2016 ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-05-01; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-09-01.
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Views From The Six won't make Pitchfork's “Best New Music” ( 80% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-30; known on 2016-05-25; judged right by ioannes on 2016-06-11.
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UK police officers will routinely use real-time (live) facial recognition software and be equipped with webcams to aid in the apprehension of wanted criminals. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by AdamSmith on 2016-04-30; known on 2023-04-02.
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A supernova in the Miky Way will first be detected by it's neutrino and gravitational wave emission, prior to it's brightening allowing observation by optical telescopes. ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by AdamSmith on 2016-04-30; known on 2025-01-01.
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Peak global anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in 2028 ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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The popularity of professional American Football (with the huge men and body armor) will decline, and will be overtaken by Soccer (which the rest of the world calls Football) ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-29; known on 2022-02-28; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2022-02-28.
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Nokia will no longer make phones for any market by start of 2020 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-29; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-01-01.
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Google Plus will continue to be actively supported by Google through 2021, with growth in active users. ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-29; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2022-01-01.
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Mom and I go to Point Reyes this weekend ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-29; known on 2016-05-02; judged right by ioannes on 2016-05-02.
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SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021 ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sflicht on 2016-04-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2021-01-02.
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SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2019. ( 36% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2016-04-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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ASOIAF: Wba Fabj vf jnetrq ol Oybbqenira be Oena (be obgu) ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2016-04-28; known on 2023-01-02.
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ASOIAF: Wba Fabj jvyy or jnetrq ol Oybbqenira ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by muflax on 2016-04-27; known on 2023-01-02.
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Computer Scientists obsolete ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-27; known on 2036-04-27.
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Either mean, median or mode truck drivers in either globally or US will make <= .027 BTC/hr or equivalent ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-26; known on 2031-04-26.
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A male or female friend of mine will marry a man, only to have it revealed later that he's transitioning to being a woman [in that order] ( 8% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-26; known on 2066-01-01.
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First physical sample returned from a Near Earth Asteroid. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2025-06-22.
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Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/ ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2027-01-01.
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More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles. ( 21% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2024-12-31.
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A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization. ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2028-05-01.
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The Breakthrough Starshot initiative will construct a working prototype of a laser-propelled nanocraft capable of accelerating to more than 1% of the speed of light, before 2030. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2016-04-26; known on 2030-01-01.
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In 10 years, most computers and keyboards will exclude the “PAUSE” key ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-26; known on 2026-04-26.
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Cruz will lose Indiana AND Kasich will lose New Mexico and Oregon ( 50% confidence )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-26; known on 2016-05-03; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-06-01.
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M will get 50 catches of 3 balls in the next three months ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-04-25; known on 2016-07-25; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-26.
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J will get 50 catches of 4 balls in the next six months. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-04-25; known on 2016-10-24; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-10-31.
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Contigent on the Brexit vote beeing >50% for UK leaving the EU, the Pound Sterling will have lost 25% of current (April 25) value within a week after the vote. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by brslvrsl on 2016-04-25; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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None of the hackathon (Consensus 2016) winners include a threat model as part of their entry. ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-25; known on 2017-01-01.
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Localbitcoins was really incompetent enough to store username/passwords in a way that they could be retrieved, plaintext and the hack on /r/btc right now is real ( 68% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-25; known on 2016-05-03; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-25.
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T will reciprocate for R ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2016-04-24; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-05-02.
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A confirmed detection of an ET Civlization ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-22; known on 2016-04-22; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26.
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0.85 be at duende before 8:51 (based on real time ETA at 19th of 8:36 at 8:24). ( 85% confidence )
Created by TTL on 2016-04-21; known on 2016-04-21; judged right by TTL on 2016-04-21.
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William Bennett imprisoned in 2017 ( 40% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-21; known on 2018-01-01.
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I will finish Stephen's Sausage Roll before 2018 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-04-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Abrupt drop off found in space dust sizes above 2.176 × 10E−5 g ( 50% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-21; known on 2400-01-01.
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Russia Bans Bitcoin ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-20; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by Dr K on 2018-01-07.
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Paul Ryan faces the democratic nominee in the 2016 US presidential election. ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-20; known on 2016-07-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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I will get the GROW ( 85% confidence )
Created by spicedpiano on 2016-04-20; known on 2016-06-01.
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The Dota 2 6.87 patch will not come out before the Manila Major is over. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by raehik on 2016-04-19; known on 2016-06-12; judged wrong by raehik on 2016-06-12.
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I will do a postgrad degree in anthropology in 2017-18 ( 8% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2016-04-19; known on 2017-09-20.
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I will do a postgrad degree in philosophy in 2017-18 ( 31% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2016-04-19; known on 2017-09-20.
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I will do a postgrad degree in computer science in 2017-18 ( 22% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2016-04-19; known on 2017-09-20.
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I will do a postgrad degree in neuroscience or cognitive science in 2017-18 ( 34% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2016-04-19; known on 2017-09-20.
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“President HRC will face an attempt by a Republican Congress to cut her pay.” ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-19; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by NickN on 2020-08-21.
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I got a perfect score on my algo prelim. ( 66% confidence )
Created by azax1 on 2016-04-19; known on 2016-04-19; judged right by azax1 on 2016-04-19.
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1 year continuous human habitation of the moon ( 17% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-18; known on 2025-06-22.
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More mergers & acquisitions in bitcoin in 2017 than any previous year ( 57% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-18; known on 2018-01-01.
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I will make it to the police station today in time ( 10% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-18; known on 2016-04-19; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-18.
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I will advance to round 2 of the 2016 Google Code Jam after round 1A. ( 5% confidence )
Created by trishume on 2016-04-16; known on 2016-04-17; judged wrong by trishume on 2016-04-16.
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US Newspaperocalypse ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-16; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.
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90% of web traffic will be images ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-01-01.
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Civil war in Saudi Arabia ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.
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Either Graphene EMI Shielding or one of the other 85 “key technologies” is successfully put on market by at least one Korean firm ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known on 2018-01-01.
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8 million accounts on ripple networks ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known on 2018-01-01.
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intel 10nm 'tick' release ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-02.
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Law Students commonly use IBM's Watson ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Peteris on 2018-01-01.
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macron president 2017 ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by leo_gri on 2016-04-14; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Burr And Feinstein Anti-Perfect-Forward-Encryption bill passes ( 68% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-14; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.
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Texas votes Democratic in 2016 presidential election. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-04-14; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-02.
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Sandia 10MW CO2 turbine tests success ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-14; known on 2019-10-01.
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2016 New York Democratic Primary isn't a blowout (i.e. margin of victory is < 15%) ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-14; known on 2016-04-21; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-04-21.
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Ampyx prototype AP3 deployed for testing ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-14; known on 2018-01-01.
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Bank of Canada increases overnight rate over 2.5% in 2017 ( 63% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-13; known on 2018-01-01.
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Over 30% of Canadians 2 payments or more behind on mortgage payments at any point in 2017 ( 65% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-13; known on 2018-01-01.
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Commercially available hard disks utilize heat-assisted magnetic recording ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-13; known on 2018-01-01.
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Clathrate gun fires ( rapid ( 1 C / year or more ) increase in global mean temp for 5 years attributed to clathrate methane deposit release) ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-13; known on 2040-01-01.
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Canada's Federal NDP will adopt the LEAP manifesto as official party policy ( 58% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Kim Jung Un ousted, assassinated, or somehow loses power of North Korea, either internally or from some international influence ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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24% or more of coral reefs in asia are gone relative to 2007 ( 68% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known on 2018-01-01.
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I will not be able to sell on market referenced in claim 177878 ( 92% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known on 2018-01-02.
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Bitcoin hits 1M$ or equivalent / bitcoin in any market at any point before jan 1, 2018 (Such as VEF in localbitcoins) ( 92% confidence; 9 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-25.
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Avogadro project fixes value of the Kilogram before Planck constant is set in 2017 ( 59% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-11; known on 2018-01-01.
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Construction & housing in the heart of “Grand Paris” project starts by 2017 ( 51% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-11; known on 2018-01-01.
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Republican candidate loses with >191 votes. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-11; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Republican candidate loses general election with 191 votes. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-11; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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I complete at least one “completionist” cycle this week ( 80% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-11; known on 2016-04-17; judged right by ioannes on 2016-04-17.
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I will be single on Sep 1, 2016 ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-11; known on 2016-09-02; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-02.
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I will buy some lego today ( 80% confidence )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-04-10; known on 2016-04-11; judged right by Temeraire on 2016-04-10.
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Kasich does not become the Republican nominee ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-10; known on 2016-08-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-21.
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Until the end of 2037, at no point in time will the Republican and Democratic parties combined have less than 96% of members of each of the House, Senate, governors and control of legislative chambers (non-partisan ones excluded). ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-04-09; known on 2037-12-31.
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Until the end of 2037, at no point in time will a person elected or otherwise selected by a political party, other than the Republican and Democratic parties, hold the office of President of the United States. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-04-09; known on 2037-12-31.
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The Libertarian Party presidential candidate will get less than 2.4% of the popular vote in New Hampshire. ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-04-09; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by sole21000 on 2016-11-09.
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The Libertarian Party presidential candidate will get less than 2% of the national popular vote in November. ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-04-09; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Twitter will continue to exist without having been acquired through 2020-01-01. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bitbatbot on 2016-04-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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David Cameron will resign as PM due to the Panama Papers scandal in the next two weeks. ( 5% confidence; 21 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-04-08; known on 2016-04-22; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-04-22.
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I workout tomorrow ( 30% confidence )
Created by Nikola on 2016-04-08; known on 2016-04-09; judged wrong by Nikola on 2016-04-09.
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My mom gets a hip replacement in 2016. ( 80% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-08; known on 2017-01-16; judged right by ioannes on 2017-01-03.
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Conditional on the Panama Papers being leaked by a US Govt operation, the primary reason for the leak would be to show ordinary Russians the sheer corruption within the Power Vertical. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-04-07; known on 2066-04-07.
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Kings XI Punjab win 2016 IPL ( 3% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2016-04-07; known on 2016-05-30; judged wrong by Leo on 2016-05-26.
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Kolkata Knight Riders win 2016 IPL ( 30% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2016-04-07; known on 2016-05-30; judged wrong by Leo on 2016-05-26.
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The winner of the 2016 US presidential election will be a Democrat. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by trishume on 2016-04-07; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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4% of my 2031 savings (including rental property value) will be greater than my 2031 expenses ( 65% confidence )
Created by trishume on 2016-04-07; known on 2031-01-16.