PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Intel releases new socket standard/type in 2016 ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.

Gender gap in software industry worse in 2016 than 2009. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-17.

More and better quality medical research happens in 2016 vs. 2015 ( 90% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2018-01-01.

Real ID act goes into phase iv, DHS REALID system forces all states to participate or bans citizens of them from international travel ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-01-01.

Funding Circle profitable by end of 2016 ( 53% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-03.

2016 global climate change reaches +10 degrees Celsius relative to 1996 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.

3 billion Android users at any point in 2016 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by bendini on 2017-01-01.

Intraventricular meningioma. EnCt2a1ef7138343c9cd291076e0a5b19fee144bfb46ba1ef7138343c9cd291076e0a0YNr1iyswgI gd7IJ1lbbaFZll4SVwDdpShqI/T/keJywJVQ9h7r8vr3WGzg=IwEmS Encrypted by https://encipher.it ( 90% confidence )

Created by eldorz on 2016-03-01; known on 2016-03-15.

Gender divide in 2016 election to be greater than that in 2012 ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-03-01; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-01-05.

Exactly two candidates will get greater than 10% of the popular vote in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. ( 74% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by HonoreDB on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-11-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.

Exactly three candidates will get greater than 10% of the popular vote in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by HonoreDB on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.

Bernie will remain in the race through the District of Columbia primary. ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-06-14; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-06-14.

Bernie will drop out before California primary. ( 25% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-06-07; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2016-06-08.

Bernie will drop out before New York primary. ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-04-19; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-04-19.

Bernie will drop out before Ohio & Florida primaries. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2016-03-16.

Not only does 9th planet exist, but 10th planet hiding in the Kuiper belt somewhere too ( 66% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-29; known on 2266-01-01.

Over 30,000 people will take the life you can save pledge by Dec 31, 2016 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by commercecat on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.

Kasich will drop out of the republican primary race before March 3rd ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by silacoid on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-03-03; judged wrong by silacoid on 2016-03-03.

OOTS: The Monster in the Darkness is an Uvuudaum. ( 33% confidence )

Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29; known on 2026-02-28.

Unsong: Sohu is the Comet King's daughter. ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29; known on 2018-02-28; judged right by Sniffnoy on 2016-09-05.

SpaceX to successfully launch SES satellite by April 1, 2016 ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-04-02; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-05.

I will run a 25:00 5k (treadmill) on or before May 24, 2016. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by azax1 on 2016-02-28; known on 2016-05-24; judged wrong by azax1 on 2016-05-29.

Wizards of the Coast will announce a new “From the Vault” Magic set on Monday, February 29th. ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-28; known on 2016-02-29; judged right by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.

The Codex Kickstarter will not raise $250,000, but David Sirlin will throw in the white and purple tokens anyway. ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-28; known on 2016-03-04; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-03-01.

The Codex Kickstarter will not raise $250,000. ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-28; known on 2016-03-03; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-03-01.

At least one person will take offense to one of our 22nd century protest signs. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-27; known on 2016-04-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-24.

The big Short will win best picture oscar ( 40% confidence )

Created by leo_gri on 2016-02-27; known on 2016-02-28; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.

Evil Geniuses will win the Dota 2 Shanghai Major ( 70% confidence )

Created by raehik on 2016-02-26; known on 2016-03-06; judged wrong by raehik on 2016-03-06.

Sanders will win the Democratic nomination ( 21% confidence; 29 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by LawrenceNewport on 2016-02-26; known on 2016-06-14; judged wrong by LawrenceNewport on 2016-06-14.

rjlipton.wordpress.com describe a heads heads/tails coin problem on 2016-02-21. They'll state whether the problem is decidable in their next post. ( 50% confidence )

Created by whosyourjay on 2016-02-26; known on 2016-02-28; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.

₹72-3 to the US dollar by December 2016. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-25; known on 2016-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-12-26.

Facebook will either remove the negative-valence expanded reaction buttons, or in some way allow people to de-activate the option for their own posts, by the end of 2016 ( 28% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.

Trump will win the Republican nomination ( 70% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by LawrenceNewport on 2016-02-24; known on 2016-06-07; judged right by LawrenceNewport on 2016-06-14.

The UK will stay in the EU ( 67% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by spinkley on 2016-02-24; known on 2016-06-24; judged wrong by Reactionaryhistorian on 2016-06-24.

https://encipher.it?DI8w thyroglossal duct cyst ( 90% confidence )

Created by eldorz on 2016-02-24; known on 2016-03-23.

The Big Short win the best film award ( 60% confidence )

Created by leo_gri on 2016-02-24; known on 2016-02-28; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.

Guantanamo Bay detention facility to close before year end. ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-23; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.

A terrorist attack or series of terrorist attacks ordered by Kim Jong Un on South Korean & possibly Japanese targets including public transportation, power plants and on individual disidents or critics will happen some time in 2016 – possibly within 90d. ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by amexfireplace on 2016-02-23; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-03.

Largest bitcoin exchange by volume over dec 2016 will be a chinese one / btcCNY* ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-23; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.

Another 3+/-1 M$ goes into copyright board of canada in 2016 ( 99% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-31.

@realDonaldTrump will be suspended from Twitter for a week or longer before 2017 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.

@paxdickinson will be suspended from Twitter for a week or longer before 2017 ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-04.

TTC makes its goal of 7$M more from metropass users in 2016. ( 60% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-06-01.

Russian Federation < 100 B Foreign Exchange reserves ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-02.

One or more current SSRI or SNRI (includes newer generation serotonergics like Viibrid) becomes under investigation by FDA for misrepresentation of clinical trial results before 2020. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-22; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-21.

Destin Sandlin (host of Smarter Every Day) hired by NASA ( 10% confidence )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-22; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2019-08-01.

Kim Jung Un ousted, assassinated, or somehow loses power of North Korea, either internally or from some international influence before year end. ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.

Ceasefire, “truce”, OR no-fly zone imposed in full or in part, in or within an area in Syria or Iraq before April 1, 2016 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-22; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-02-27.

Bitcoin price reaches $500 before June 2016 (1 BTC ≥ 500 USD) ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-22; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-06-01.

Conditional on Brexit, Boris Johnson will be the next British Prime Minister. ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Waring on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by Waring on 2016-06-30.

No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people during 2016 ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by leo_gri on 2017-01-01.

I will not have eaten any meat intentionally before a month from now. ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Sahil on 2016-02-21; known on 2016-03-21; judged right by Sahil on 2016-04-06.

I will not have eaten any meat intentionally for the next 30 years, starting now ( 29% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by arpanagarawal on 2016-02-21; known on 2046-02-21; judged wrong by Sahil on 2019-04-25.

Michael Bloomberg wins the 2016 presidential election. ( 1% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-21; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.

Michael Bloomberg to enter the 2016 US presidential election as a candidate. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-21; known on 2016-04-21; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-03-08.

I will give D some food tonight. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2016-02-21; known on 2016-02-22; judged right by splorridge on 2016-02-21.

A will beat their record archery score tomorrow. ( 30% confidence )

Created by splorridge on 2016-02-20; known on 2016-02-21; judged right by splorridge on 2016-02-21.

Bernie Sanders will run as a third party/independent if he does not win the Democratic Nomination. ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Faceh on 2016-02-20; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-07-12.

D or A will leave something behind. ( 30% confidence )

Created by splorridge on 2016-02-20; known on 2016-02-21; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-02-21.

D will travel by car with A tomorrow. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by splorridge on 2016-02-20; known on 2016-02-21; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-02-21.

D will get a paper out before F or A ( 60% confidence )

Created by splorridge on 2016-02-20; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-06-09.

DJIA will have decreased by 40% of its market price on 20 Feb 2016 to 9835 or lower at a point between 20 Feb and 31 Dec ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by xplkqlkcassia on 2016-02-20; known on 2016-12-30; judged wrong by mortehu on 2016-12-31.

Canuck the Crow (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/crow-in-east-vancouver-attack-no-ordinary-bird-cyclist-discovers-1.3247899) to die in 2016 ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-02-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

The Higgs boson discovered at the LHC on 4/7/12 will be found to NOT be a standard model Higgs boson. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2016-02-19; known on 2025-01-01.

Land a robot on the Moon by 2017 for the Google Lunar X prize —Rahul Narayan, CEO of Team Indus, Bharat ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-18; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.

Bharat's current account deficit will be 0.7% GDP in FY16 owing to lower commodity prices. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-18; known on 2016-05-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-07-06.

Greece will not announce it’s leaving the Euro in 2016 ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-18; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Temeraire on 2017-01-01.

Either the average cost of a public university education in America will double, the median income of a 4-year-degree holder will fall to 125% of a high school diploma holder, or the expected value of a public university education will turn negative. ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JohnWittle on 2016-02-17; known on 2025-06-01.

At the end of this semester, I will think I have felt happy for most of it. ( 65% confidence )

Created by azax1 on 2016-02-17; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by azax1 on 2016-06-01.

Zika will be found not to be the (sole, proximate) cause of microencephaly for the recent cases in Brazil ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by davidmanheim on 2016-02-17; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2021-01-01.

The price of a US postage stamp (1-ounce letter) will not increase within the next year. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-17; known on 2017-02-17; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-02-18.

No single GOP candidate will get >50% of delegates, and a brokered convention will ensue. ( 29% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-17; known on 2016-06-16; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-06-16.

Another supreme court justice will die during Obama's presidency. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-17; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by Faceh on 2017-01-20.

I will not get a second interview with my most recent interviewers. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by azax1 on 2016-02-16; known on 2016-02-23; judged right by azax1 on 2016-02-24.

My husband, while sitting on PredictionBook, will ask me yet again what I think the odds are for Hilary or Bernie or Trump, even though he just asked me yesterday. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by SmartArse on 2016-02-16; known on 2016-02-17; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-16.

Eurozone sovereign debt crisis by 2022. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-16; known on 2022-12-25.

Italy will default on its debt by 2022. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-16; known on 2022-12-25; judged wrong by qznc on 2022-01-02.

Spain will default on its debt by 2022. ( 39% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-16; known on 2022-12-25.

President Bernie Sanders Assassinated ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-16; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.

Kanye West will be U.S. President-elect before 2025 ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-14; known on 2025-01-01.

The S&P 500 Index will go below 1250 in 2016. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

The S&P 500 Index will close below 1600 at the end of 2016. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

The S&P 500 will close below 1750 at the end of 2016. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

The S&P 500 Index will close below 2000 at the end of 2016. ( 77% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

Federal Reserve cuts the Federal Funds rate at least once in 2016. ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

Federal Reserve will cut the Federal Funds rate to below zero levels (i.e. a range that includes below zero levels) at or before the March 2016 FOMC meeting. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2016-03-17; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-17.

Federal Reserve will cut the Federal Funds rate to the [0, 0.25%] range at or before the March 2016 FOMC meeting. ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2016-03-17; judged wrong by equivrel-markets on 2016-03-17.

Today there will be >= 1 posts in my Facebook newsfeed about how Valentine's day is stupid, a secret ploy by corporations, or something something patriarchy. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-14; known on 2016-02-15; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-15.

There will be >= 1 valentine's day engagement announcements in my Facebook newsfeed today. ( 40% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-14; known on 2016-02-15; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-15.

There will be at least nine more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )