Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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Jane Kelly is nominated to replace Scalia. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-02-14; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-02-02.
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Groupon will shut down, be acquired, or go into receivership before 2021. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-14; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-11-18.
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Obama will successfully appoint Scalia's appointment. ( 43% confidence; 33 wagers; 22 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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A longterm (with humans present at least sixth months) colony will occur on Mars before it occurs on the Earth's moon. ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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North Korea’s government will survive the year 2016 without large civil war/revolt. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Bernie Sanders will win the Nevada primary ( 49% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by silacoid on 2016-02-13; known on 2016-02-21; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-21.
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By January 2020, there will be a commercial house cleaning robots (like a Roomba) that can take voice commands to go to specific parts of the house and clean those. ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-13; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-08.
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Independent of the next elected president of the United States, there will not exist a wall along the 1,954 mile border shared with Mexico within 8 years of inauguration. ( 74% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-13; known on 2025-01-20.
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Bharat Biotech will develop the first Zika vaccine by 2018. ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-13; known on 2018-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-27.
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US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers. (I assume this means 100 US deaths in 2016) ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Temeraire on 2017-01-01.
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Number of T20 international matches in 2015 was at least 20% more than that in 2013 (as per Wikipedia), despite the ODI world cup. (Reasoning: T20I matches seem to be much more common now) ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Pradeep_Kumar on 2016-02-12; known on 2016-02-14; judged wrong by Pradeep_Kumar on 2016-02-14.
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Jim Webb to be the next elected President of the US. ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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The British Conservative Party will win the next UK general election with an outright majority of MPs (not conditional on election date) ( 62% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Waring on 2016-02-11; known on 2020-05-10; judged wrong by Waring on 2017-08-03.
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By 2030, Taiwan will be a part of China, without being a war. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by danpop on 2016-02-11; known on 2030-01-01.
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I will switch from Emacs as my primary text editor before 2017. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-02-10; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2017-01-01.
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I will beat C in the next game of AoE2 we play together. ( 70% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-10; known on 2016-02-11; judged right by splorridge on 2016-02-11.
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I will get a cold in the next week. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-02-10; known on 2016-02-17; judged right by danielfilan on 2016-02-13.
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India will win the remaining two T20 matches against Sri Lanka (SL T20 tour of India). Pitches will be more spin-friendly than at Pune. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pradeep_Kumar on 2016-02-10; known on 2016-02-15; judged right by Pradeep_Kumar on 2016-02-14.
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“ESI” contract to be terminated explicitly before May 20, 2016 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2016-02-10; known on 2016-05-20; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2016-04-22.
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Gravitational waves will be detected this year. ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-10; known on 2016-12-25; judged right by kuudes on 2016-02-11.
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Somerville will declare another snow emergency before March 1. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-10; known on 2016-03-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-01.
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xgboost will be next best ( 70% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-10; known on 2016-02-10; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-10.
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When DeepDream for audio is invented, the output will cause seriously ill effects in humans like seizures. This will happen before 2020. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2016-02-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2021. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-09; known on 2022-06-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-05.
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Before 2020, Chromium will go closed-source, or Google/Alphabet/Alphabet subsidiary employees will generally stop contributing code to the open-source Chromium project ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-01.
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I will play any of Firewatch before 2016-02-17 ( 95% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-09; known on 2016-02-17; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-17.
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I will win my bet with Huw Price that 2/3rds of a panel of three physicists will assign less than 50% credence to cold fusion or other new-physics energy production by Andrea Rossi/Industrial Heat or Robert Godes/Brillouin Energy on New Year's Eve 2018. ( 99% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by CarlShulman on 2016-02-09; known on 2019-01-31; judged right by CarlShulman on 2019-06-26.
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Some kind of “PHP in the browser” system will overtake node.js in usage by August 4, 2016 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-09; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-08.
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There will be another incident of at least one person getting struck and killed by a meteorite before 2018 ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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There will be another incident of at least one person getting struck and killed by a meteorite before 2017 ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-10.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2019 ( 50% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by deleteyourbrain on 2019-05-02.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2018 ( 34% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2019-06-01; judged right by Pablo on 2019-04-22.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020 ( 43% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by gwern on 2021-06-01.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2017 ( 9% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-06-01.
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Vladimir Putin is not the President of Russia at the end of this prediction. ( 40% confidence; 16 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-02-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
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Grave Scrabbler will be reprinted in the Magic: The Gathering expansion “Shadows Over Innistrad”. ( 64% confidence )
Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-07; known on 2016-04-02; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-03-25.
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I will change my view on whether PredictionBook should have us mark our predictions “right” or “wrong” or use different language instead in the next 48 hours ( 20% confidence; 29 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-02-06; known on 2016-02-08; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2016-02-07.
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Airtable will change their pricing or be acquired before 2017. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by unexpectedEOF on 2017-07-05.
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Angela Merkel bleibt bis zur nächsten regulären Bundestagswahl 2017 im Amt ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Shevek on 2016-02-05; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-30.
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Kretschmann bleibt Ministerpräsident von Baden-Württemberg ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Shevek on 2016-02-05; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by brslvrsl on 2016-05-17.
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Sanders will endorse Clinton as the 2016 Democratic nominee. ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-05; known on 2016-10-31; judged right by Faceh on 2016-07-12.
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The 2016 Iowa GOP Caucus result does not get overturned/revised such that Trump takes first place. ( 92% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-02-05; known on 2016-09-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-16.
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ExxonMobil has predicted that global demand for coal will peak in about 2025 ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-04; known on 2025-12-25.
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Zhongguo's output of greenhouse gases will peak in 2025, 5 years ahead of the pledged 2030 date. ( 96% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-04; known on 2025-12-25.
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Bharat will meet or exceed the Copenhagen pledge to reduce the emissions intensity of GDP by 20–25% in 2020 compared to 2005 levels. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-04; known on 2021-12-25.
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Cannabis will be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act before 2023 ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-04; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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In the wake of the listeria outbreaks, at least one Blue Bell Creameries employee will face criminal charges by 2018 ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by unexpectedEOF on 2018-06-01.
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No portion of Mo-Pac express lanes will be completed and accepting traffic before June 1st, 2016. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-04; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2016-06-01.
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A US state (other than Florida) will declare at least a county-wide state of emergency due to the Zika virus before June of 2016 ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-04; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-02.
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Conditional on LW2.0 being implemented, the changes will cause LW's alexa rank to be below 30K at least once within 6 months of launch. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sdr on 2016-02-03; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by sdr on 2017-03-17.
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Conditional on LW2.0 being implemented, the changes will cause LW's alexa rank to drop above 100K within 6 months of launch. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sdr on 2016-02-03; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by sdr on 2017-10-02.
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Lesswrong.com will have major ( >3 pages' design structure) changes implemented, and live by the end of 2016 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sdr on 2016-02-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by sdr on 2017-03-17.
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MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next twenty years. ( 47% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-03; known on 2037-01-01.
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MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next five years. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-03; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-12.
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9771039943: ABC ( 80% confidence )
Created by Dylan.Kurda on 2016-02-03; known on 2016-02-22.
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9502008321: Multifocal GBM ( 90% confidence )
Created by Dylan.Kurda on 2016-02-03; known on 2016-02-22.
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Jeb Bush will be the next President-elect ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-03; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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I will be re-hired by the end of the month. ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Lissy on 2016-02-02; known on 2016-02-29; judged right by Lissy on 2016-02-29.
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AlphaGo wins 5-0 in march ( 55% confidence; 34 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2016-02-02; known on 2016-03-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-13.
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Bernie Sanders will win the New Hampshire Primary ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-02-02; known on 2016-02-08; judged right by Temeraire on 2016-02-14.
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Donald Trump will shave his head any time before the general election (no GOP nomination needed) ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-08.
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I will go to Colorado in March 2016 ( 99% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by ioannes on 2016-04-01.
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I will submit the 7th DAND project by EOD 3/13 ( 60% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-03-14; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-03-15.
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I will submit the sixth DAND project by EOD 2/28 ( 67% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-02-29; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-02-29.
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I will submit the fifth DAND project by EOD 2/21 ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-02-22; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-02-29.
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I will submit the fourth DAND project by EOD 2/14 ( 75% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-02-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-02-15.
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I will submit the 3rd DAND project by the end of next weekend ( 80% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-02-08; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-02-08.
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Donald Trump's pick for VP will be a woman. (No nomination needed; withdrawn if Trump does not pick.) ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-07-18; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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Donald Trump's pick for VP will be Ivanka Trump. (No nomination needed; withdrawn if Trump does not pick.) ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-07-18; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Leo wins an Academy Award. ( 75% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-01-31; known on 2016-02-29; judged right by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.
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TPP ratified in Canada ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-17.
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The Burea of Economic Analysis March 25 real GDP growth rate for the USA economy in 2015 will be <= 2.10%. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-31; known on 2016-03-26; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-27.
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Donald Trump will win the Iowa Caucus ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RationalEmpathy on 2016-01-31; known on 2016-02-03; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
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Carly Fiorina will be the next President-elect ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-11.
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The FBI will recommend an indictment of Hillary Clinton before the 2016 general election ( 28% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-05.
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OVH will set up a west coast (North America) datacenter before 2017 and rent servers/VPSes in it to the general public ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
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No 2016 Presidential candidate receives a majority of Electoral votes ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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I will be terminated on Monday. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Lissy on 2016-01-30; known on 2016-02-02; judged right by Lissy on 2016-02-02.
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Banco Central do Brasil (BACEN) – Brasil's 2017 real economic growth rate will be 0.87%. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-30; known on 2018-01-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-03.
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Banco Central do Brasil (BACEN) – Brasil's 2016 real economic growth rate will be -2.99%. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-30; known on 2017-01-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16.
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Bharat will be ranked 9th(from 11th) in the world for solar photovoltaic total capacity in 2015. ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29; known on 2016-12-25.
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Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. ( 10% confidence; 17 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29; known on 2022-12-25.
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Bharat will be ranked 2nd in the world by 2020 for steel production. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29; known on 2020-12-25; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-12.
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Bharat will be ranked 4th in the world by 2021 for zinc production. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29; known on 2021-12-25.
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I will finish the 4th data munging problem set today ( 60% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-01-29; known on 2016-01-30; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-01-30.
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Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. ( 99% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-29; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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AlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol in 3/5 or more games in March ( 64% confidence; 76 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by Jach on 2016-03-12.
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Lee Sedol will win match against AlphaGo but lose at least one game ( 35% confidence; 25 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12.
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No major earthquake (>100 deaths) in US in 2016 ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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No major earthquake (>10000 deaths) in the world in 2016 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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SpaceX successfully launches a reused rocket in 2016. (Payload reaches outer space, i.e. 100km) ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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US unemployment to be lower at end of 2016 than beginning ( 75% confidence )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-03-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2017-03-02.
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US GDP growth in 2016 lower than in 2015 ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-03-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2017-03-02.
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Dow Jones Industrial Average will not fall > 10% over the course of 2016. (It will end above 15,434) ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Temeraire on 2017-01-01.
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Oil will end 2016 lower than $40 a barrel ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2017-01-01.
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Bitcoin will end 2016 higher than $500 ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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ISIS will control less territory at the end of 2016 than it does right now ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Israel will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state (Excluding the PA/Hamas, not excluding IS or Hezbollah) in 2016 ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Greece will not announce it’s leaving the Euro in 2016 ( 79% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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North Korea’s government will survive 2016 without large civil war/revolt ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.