PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Sask Party Minority in Saskatchewan Provincial Election 2016 ( 15% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-16; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-05.

Sask Party Majority Government in Saskatchewan Provincial Election 2016 ( 84% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-16; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-05.

Peter Todd will agree Ripple Labs has released all necessary source code, including all validator code, to be “Open Source” ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-16; known on 2018-01-01; judged unknown by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.

I will replace my laptop in 2017. ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-16; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-09.

Warren Buffet will claim that the “weapons of financial mass destruction” have executed in 2017: financial derivatives cause major problem worldwide. ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-16; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2018-01-01.

John Kasich will win the Republican nomination for President ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ChristianKl on 2016-03-16; known on 2016-08-26; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.

Is Any one try online class with www.facetofacestudy.com ?? ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by facetofacestudy on 2016-03-16; known on 2016-03-23; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-03-28.

PredictionBook fails to recognize the major, ongoing technical issues with its site and will not change the website for at least a year. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-16; known on 2017-03-16; judged right by elephantower on 2017-03-21.

Donald Trump sweeps the table tonight (Tuesday 3-15) ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-15; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-03-17.

Bernie Sanders sweeps the table tonight (Tuesday 3-15) ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-15; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-03-16.

Lee Sedol will win the final game against AlphaGo ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by waveman on 2016-03-15; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-15.

The fifth match with AlphaGo will go to the end game (as described by the commentators), and then AlphaGo will resign. ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by regex on 2016-03-15; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-15.

AlphaGo's meltdown in game 4 was not due to flaws in either the value or policy networks. ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by lavalamp on 2016-03-14; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by sole21000 on 2017-06-01.

Alain Juppé wins the “Les Republicains” primary (France). ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by leo_gri on 2016-03-14; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-29.

Guy who charged stage at trump rally below is not actually a secret trump plant. ( https://twitter.com/virtadpt/status/709184534995075072 ) ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.

Brock Osweiler is out of NFL within 7 years ( 7% confidence )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-13; known on 2023-03-13.

AlphaGo will win the 5th match against Lee Sedol ( 68% confidence; 12 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by artir on 2016-03-13; known on 2016-03-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-15.

Vancouver power grid does not have a crisis in summer 2016 ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12; known on 2016-11-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-30.

no more blizzards in march in #tbay ( 59% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-01.

No snow in may in #tbay ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-14.

There will be a relevant (>10% vote in any election) third political party in the US before the end of 2018. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by artir on 2016-03-12; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by artir on 2018-12-31.

Lee Sedol attempts suicide ( 1% confidence; 21 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.

D and I will walk to Ely tonight ( 0% confidence )

Created by splorridge on 2016-03-11; known on 2016-03-12; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-03-12.

Assuming I get the job, I will have to be evacuated at some point this year due to forest fire ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-11; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-14.

Assuming I start the new job successfully, after one year from the first day of work I will find it a more rewarding use of my life than my old contracting job, well worth quitting for ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-11; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.

I will acquire the 2 needed prerequisites to start work at my new job without incident ( 59% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-11; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-23.

By 2025, China's yuan will be backed by gold. ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by danpop on 2016-03-11; known on 2025-01-01.

AlphaGo will beat any human it plays for the next 2 years(no handicap games). ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-11; known on 2018-12-16; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-13.

AlphaGo will win 5-0 against Ke Jie. ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-11; known on 2017-12-16; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-10-20.

Ke Jie loses to AlphaGo ( 87% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-08.

Gary Johnson to get > 5% of the vote in 2016 ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-03-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.

AlphaGo will beat Lee Sodol in the three remaining matches of their initial 5. ( 74% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by earthbound01 on 2016-03-11; known on 2016-03-15; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-13.

Halbig case does not get heard by US supreme court ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by HonoreDB on 2020-01-02.

I will not get SJS from modafinil ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by RoryS on 2016-03-10; known on 2017-10-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-22.

No human will win at Go again against a top AI ( 90% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by c0rw11 on 2016-03-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-03-13.

Obama leaves the White House with an approval rating of 60 or higher. ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-10; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by prtlmpf on 2017-07-12.

Obama leaves the White House with an approval rating of 55 or higher. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-10; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-02-02.

Barack Obama leaves the White House with an approval rating ≥ 50. (Favorable/Unfavorable) ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-10; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.

Bharat's millionaires,multi millionaires, UHNWI ($30 M+), centa-millionaires(100 M+), billionaires will at least double from 2015-2025. — The Wealth Report,Knight Frank. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-09; known on 2025-12-25.

Palau, Panama, Argentina, Kazakhstan, Lebanon, will be high income countries by 2020. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-09; known on 2020-12-25.

Hillary Clinton will win the democratic nomination ( 88% confidence; 30 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-07-26; judged right by grogo on 2016-07-26.

Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination ( 77% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-07-22; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-20.

Alphago will win over Lee Sedol at least 4-1 ( 81% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-03-14; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-15.

World Champion of Go will defeat Google's AI ( 28% confidence; 9 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by artir on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-03-16; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-09.

I will have at least 365 logged plays on BGG by the end of 2016 ( 68% confidence )

Created by Chri on 2016-03-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Chri on 2017-01-04.

I will have at least 200 logged plays on BGG by the end of 2016 ( 94% confidence )

Created by Chri on 2016-03-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Chri on 2017-01-04.

The Balseraphs will not succeed in landing a single unit on the Amurite home continent. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Temeraire on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-07-03; judged right by Temeraire on 2016-10-01.

Romney is GOP nominee. ( 2% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.

Romney runs third party. ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.

>0 serotonergic drugs withdrawn from US market, OR loses >0 of its FDA approved indication (before 2020) ( 18% confidence )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-08; known on 2020-01-01.

Snokes is not Darth Plegueia ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by artir on 2016-03-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by moridinamael on 2018-08-13.

Graphnano's bat wont be a bluff ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by artir on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-12-31.

I will not have the new chair permanently taken away from me during 2016 ( 97% confidence )

Created by Temeraire on 2016-03-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Temeraire on 2017-01-01.

Ana is misleading to Aaron about the 'marriage' name in some significant way – e.g. it maybe is not symmetric. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Temeraire on 2016-03-07; known on 2025-01-01.

UNSONG was created to control the spread of names (in the same way we might want to restrict anthrax or AI research) ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Temeraire on 2016-03-07; known on 2025-01-01.

UNSONG was created to incentivize name discovery, the same way that patents work for drugs in the real world, with the intention of providing an arsenal to fight Hell with ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Temeraire on 2016-03-07; known on 2025-01-01.

UNSONG was created to incentivize name discovery, the same way that patents work for drugs in the real world. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Temeraire on 2016-03-07; known on 2025-01-01.

There will be a commercial house cleaning robots (like a Roomba) that can go to specific parts of the house and clean those parts. ( 17% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-30.

Full (infant) human mind provably fully simulatable on any amount of extant hardware ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.

At least one senator or representative to change parties before the election. ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-07; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-12-03.

Bachar el Assad will lose power before the end of 2016 ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by leo_gri on 2016-03-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.

Tsipras will lose power before the end of 2016 ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by leo_gri on 2016-03-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.

Boko Haram will be defeated this year. ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-06; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-25.

Worldwide capacity of rooftop, building-integrated and local PV soar from 104GW in 2014 to nearly 1.8TW in 2040, a 17-fold increase. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-06; known on 2040-12-25.

Seb Henbest, Bloomberg New Energy Finance: “The CO² content of the atmosphere is on course to exceed 450 parts per million by 2035". The world will fail to keep temperature rise below 2 °C. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-06; known on 2035-12-25.

55% of CO² emitted in 2030 will be produced by states that have reached peak levels —World Resources Institute ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-06; known on 2030-12-25.

Global CO² emissions peak at 15.3Gt in 2029 —Bloomberg New Energy Finance ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-06; known on 2029-12-25.

56% share of world generation for zero carbon energy sources(renewables+nuclear) by 2040. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-06; known on 2040-12-25.

I am going to be called for an interview for a job ( 75% confidence )

Created by Ludgar on 2016-03-05; known on 2016-03-11; judged right by Ludgar on 2016-03-05.

Supreme Court strikes down Texas abortion law in 5-3 split. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-05; known on 2017-01-01.

Supreme Court strikes down Texas abortion law in 6-2 split. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-05; known on 2017-01-01.

Supreme Court strikes down Texas abortion law. ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-05; known on 2017-01-01.

Bouteflika will lose power before the end of 2016 ( 9% confidence )

Created by leo_gri on 2016-03-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by leo_gri on 2017-01-01.

Dilma Roussef will lose power before the end of 2016 ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by leo_gri on 2016-03-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by leo_gri on 2016-06-13.

Nicolas Maduro will lose power before the end of 2016 ( 9% confidence )

Created by leo_gri on 2016-03-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.

Salmane ben Abdelaziz al-Saoud (Arabie Saoudite) will lose power before the end of 2016 ( 2% confidence )

Created by leo_gri on 2016-03-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by leo_gri on 2017-01-01.

Trump Republicans split from GOP to start a third party. ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.

Establishment Republicans split from GOP and start a third party. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.

I will finish the math for 3rd year physics by end 2017. This includes linear algebra, group theory, Hamiltonian and Lagrangian formulations of classical mechanics, Hilbert Spaces, and full and partial differential equations. ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by waveman on 2016-03-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2017-09-07.

I will finish the math for 3rd year physics by end 2016. This includes linear algebra, group theory, Hamiltonian and Lagrangian formulations of classical mechanics, Hilbert Spaces, and full and partial differential equations. ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by waveman on 2016-03-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2017-01-02.

I will still be below 68kg at the end of 2018 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by waveman on 2016-03-04; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2019-01-01.

I will still be below 68kg at the end of 2017 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by waveman on 2016-03-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2018-01-01.

I will still be below 68lg at the end of 2016 ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by waveman on 2016-03-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2017-01-02.

I will get to 67kg by 1 August 2016 ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by waveman on 2016-03-04; known on 2016-08-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2016-08-01.

North American oil industry will collapse. Rig count will fall to zero. ( 7% confidence; 29 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-04; known on 2016-09-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-25.

On Friday I will find the HTC Vive's low resolution significantly distracting ( 66% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-04; known on 2016-03-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-05.

I will try an HTC Vive or HTC Vive Pre on Friday ( 60% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-04; known on 2016-03-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-05.

On Jan 1, 2017 there will be at most 3871377.25 bitcoin in addresses that have not been dormant for over a year ( 33% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-03; known on 2018-01-01.

US mandates backdoors in all crypto used on continental US ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.

Costa Rica, Brasil, Mauritius will be high income countries (World Bank definition) by 2020. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-03; known on 2020-12-25.

Malaysia will be a high income country by 2020. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-03; known on 2020-12-25.

This prediction will be judged “Wrong”. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-03-04.

https://classic.ripplepay.com does does not survive 2016 ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.

HTML5.1 goes to PR/Rec status at w3c, complete with DRM/EME ( 33% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.

Greater than 15% of Republicans vote for Clinton or third party. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-05-27.

Christie disavows support for Donald Trump before the election. ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-02; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.

Trump selects Christie as his running mate. ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-02; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-15.

Bitcoin network survives to block halving. ( 99% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-03.

Cabinet appointment for Bernie Sanders. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-03-02; judged wrong by ospond on 2017-03-06.

> 0.77% of global energy produced from solar (thermal or electricity both count) ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-03-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-08.

Statistics

Recent Predictions