PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

The SWP will split with 5-15 members joining the ULA. The SWP will decide to remain in the ULA for at least one year after the event. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jacobian on 2012-10-21; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by jacobian on 2014-01-01.

Zeo Inc will be sold, taken private, dissolve or go bankrupt in 2013. ( 75% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-03-12; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2014-01-01.

My hat turns up at Rosanne's home ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Benquo on 2013-12-30; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Benquo on 2014-01-01.

Apple share price to stay below $700 during 2013. ( 59% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by simplicio on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by dhoe on 2014-01-01.

The comet Ison will not be brighter than the full moon. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by dhoe on 2013-01-02; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by dhoe on 2014-01-01.

There will be a New York Times article about reactionaries before 2014 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by dhoe on 2013-04-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by dhoe on 2014-01-01.

'The first test launch of the Falcon Heavy' ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-01-01.

The Gaia mission will launch in 2013 ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2014-01-01.

Next 3 Turing Award winners will be a subset of Shor/Herlihy/Stallman/Szegedy/Dally —kenjackson ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-31; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-01-01.

Steve Ballmer will be the CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2013 ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by dusk on 2014-01-01.

Boston attack will turn out to be a domestic issue rather than politically motivated as judged by the inclusion of a terrorist organisation. ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by a0c4a123f7 on 2013-04-15; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by a0c4a123f7 on 2014-01-01.

I will be able to earn a reliable living off writing and possible start-ups that I'm involved in by the end of 2013. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Kaj_Sotala on 2014-01-01.

The Overdue Predictions page on PredictionBook will be modified to not display withdrawn or changed to private (by someone else) predictions by 2014. ( 36% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by RobertLumley on 2013-08-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-01-01.

The Overdue Predictions page on PredictionBook will be modified to not display withdrawn or changed to private (by someone else) predictions by 2014. ( 36% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by RobertLumley on 2013-08-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-01-01.

Achieve a high level of aerobic fitness (15 mins at 165bpm, 30 at 150bpm) by end 2013. ( 60% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2012-12-31; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-01-01.

Complete equivalent of Y2 physics at Unimelb by eoy 2013 ( 40% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2012-12-31; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-01-01.

Apple will reduce price of iPad Mini below $300 by 12/31/2013 ( 55% confidence; 9 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.

The US government will not have defaulted by the end of 2013. ( 96% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.

Apple will buy Twitter before end of 2013 ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.

I will successfully complete the 750 Words monthly challenge for December ( 90% confidence )

Created by atroche on 2013-12-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by atroche on 2014-01-01.

Gold price will be up this year ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by tkosiba on 2013-04-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.

By the end of 2013, the government will have never minted a trillion dollar coin. ( 94% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.

Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 750-1000$ (mtgox prices) ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ArisKatsaris on 2014-01-01.

Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 550-749$ (mtgox prices) ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2014-01-01.

“14 nanometre chips enter mass production” in 2013. ( 40% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.

North Korea will be in direct military conflict with another nation during this year. ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by hedges on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.

Valve announces Steam Box before 2014. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by muflax on 2012-03-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.

I will watch any of Homeland 3×08 – 3×12 before 2014 ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.

Between 2013-07-01 to 2013-12-31, I will type and do a majority of my typing on a SafeType or similar vertical keyboard ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.

I will speak (under any nickname) more than 50 lines total in #lesswrong, between now and 2014 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.

Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 350-549$ (mtgox prices) ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers )