GJP: #1061 Will Syria’s Arab League membership be reinstated* by 31 December 2012? ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

GJP: #1065 Will there be a significant* lethal confrontation involving government forces in the South China Sea or East China Sea between 23 January 2012 and 31 December 2012? ( 20% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

GJP: #1093 Will at least one Taliban representative be appointed to serve as a minister in the Afghan government before 1 January 2013? ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

GJP: #1094 Will Zimbabwe commence a presidential election before 1 January 2013? ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

GJP: #1089 Will Iran successfully detonate a nuclear device, either atmospherically, underground, or underwater before 1 January 2013? ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

GJP: #1098 Will a foreign or multinational military force fire on, invade, or enter Syria between 6 March 2012 and 31 December 2012? ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2012-03-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Silk Road will drop its hedging service by 2013. ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Microsoft will buy RIM —Cringely ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Steve Jobs’s will shall donate >=50% of his wealth to charity ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Steve Jobs's will shall donate >=99% of his wealth to charity. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

“Brain-computer interfaces allowing the paralysed to walk again” ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-01.

There will be a new (canon) Haruhi anime by 2013. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Conditional on not buying RIM, Microsoft will license Android. —Cringely ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Herman Cain is an “art project” as described by Rachel Maddow. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by fork on 2011-11-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

cousin_it will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Eliezer Yudkowsky will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Robin Hanson will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

AOL & Yahoo to merge by 2013. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

NGE: 3.0 will not be longer than 60 minutes ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

NGE: 4.0 will be released in 2012 ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

2012: Chinese GDP growth 8-9% —Michael Pettis ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Evangelion manga: there will be no Third Impact ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Yoshiyuki Sadamoto's Evangelion manga will be finished sometime in 2012 ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-03-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Intrade will close/merge/be sold by 2013. ( 8% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Panty & Stocking with Garterbelt will air on Adult Swim before 2013. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

'Aerospace-planes enter commercial service.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

“By 2013 eBay will either (1) rename itself Paypal, or (2) spin Paypal out.” ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Google will buy Spotify ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-07-28; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

Luke will finish his meta-ethics sequence on LW in 2012. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.

Half-Life 3 released in 2012. ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.

Raymond Kurzweil will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.

Wei Dai will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.

By Jan 1, 2013, there will be a way to directly input your estimated probability distribution across a range of different possible quantities when making a prediction on PB. ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.

On Jan 1, 2013, there will be 3 or fewer movies from 2011 on imdb's top 250. (down from current 6) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.

Before the end of the year, PredictionBook will offer weighted averages for the community confidence in a prediction, and/or offer an API for others to do so. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2013-01-01.

The discovery of at least one new Mersenne prime will be announced in 2011 or 2012. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-05-28; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.