PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Judged Predictions

Vettel to win f1 championship ( 97% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Laurablack on 2011-09-26; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-30.
Vettel to win f1 championship ( 97% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Laurablack on 2011-09-26; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-30.
“Steve Jobs will be nominated for Presdident of the United States, by one of the two major political parties in 2012.” ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2012-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-06.
Appeals court in Perugia will acquit Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito of the murder of Meredith Kercher. ( 47% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by komponisto on 2010-09-29; known on 2011-10-04; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-03.
Appeals court in Perugia will acquit Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito of the murder of Meredith Kercher. ( 47% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by komponisto on 2010-09-29; known on 2011-10-04; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-03.
Appeals court in Perugia will not increase the sentences of Knox and Sollecito. ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by komponisto on 2010-09-29; known on 2011-11-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-03.
Appeals court in Perugia will acquit Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito of the murder of Meredith Kercher. ( 47% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by komponisto on 2010-09-29; known on 2011-10-04; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-03.
GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1017: Will Robert Mugabe cease to be President of Zimbabwe by 30 September 2011? ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-03.
GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1015: Will Israel's ambassador be formally invited to return to Turkey by 30 September 2011? ( 5% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-03.
GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1013: Will the London Gold Market Fixing price of gold (USD per ounce) exceed $1850 on 30 September 2011 (10am ET)? ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-03.
GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1012: Will Italy's Silvio Berlusconi resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, OR otherwise vacate office before 1 October 2011? ( 5% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-03.
GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1011: Will the Nikkei 225 index finish trading at or above 9,500 on 30 September 2011? ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-03.
GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1010: Will the 30 Sept 2011 “last” PPB for Nov 2011 Brent Crude oil futures* exceed $115? ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-03.
GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1018: Will Muqtada al-Sadr formally support for the current Iraqi government of Nouri al-Maliki by 30 September 2011? ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-03.
Haruki Murakami for 2011 Literature Nobel ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by ka on 2011-10-06.
Haruki Murakami for 2011 Literature Nobel ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by ka on 2011-10-06.
No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) ( 82% confidence; 32 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-02.
No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) ( 82% confidence; 32 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-02.
Within two years, consensus will be that Edward Nelson's current attempt at demonstrating a contradiction in PA fails. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-27; known on 2013-09-27; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-01.
amigojapan on #lesswrong will translate a paragraph of the Anno Toprunner show for me. ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-01; known on 2011-10-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-01.
I will be put on moderation/expelled from the Miyazaki mailing list for providing a public archive ( 39% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-01; known on 2011-10-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-01.
Australian dollar will strengthen to 112 US cents by the end of September ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-28; known on 2011-10-01; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-10-01.
“Bird Flu (H5N1) to be confirmed in the USA before midnight ET on 30 Sep 2011” ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-30.
BitcoinEXpress attack on Namecoin will be successful in reversing the hashchain at least temporarily ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-13; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-30.
“Julia Gillard to no longer be Prime Minister of Australia before midnight ET 30 Sep 2011” (excluding death) —Intrade ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-05; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-30.
“United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 30 Sep 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-30.
“Hamas accepts Israel's right to exist before midnight ET on 30 Sep 2011” —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-30.
Gaddafi will be killed or captured ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Dylan on 2011-09-08; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by Dylan on 2011-09-30.
Michael House will reply within a week. ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-09-29; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-29.
GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1004: Will the United Nations General Assembly recognize a Palestinian state by 30 September 2011? ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-09-29; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-29.
Within two years, consensus will be that Edward Nelson's current attempt at demonstrating a contradiction in PA fails. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-27; known on 2013-09-27; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-01.
Within two years, consensus will be that Edward Nelson's current attempt at demonstrating a contradiction in PA fails. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-27; known on 2013-09-27; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-01.
The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite will strike a person, residence, or vehicle, where the impact results in at least one human death (that we know about) before 2011-10-25 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-24; known on 2011-10-25; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-26.
There will be no statistically significant increase in neutrino levels detected by detectors attributable to the recent supernova in M101. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-26; known on 2011-09-30; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-25.
Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 46% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.
Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 46% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.
The Pirate Party will enter the Parliament of Berlin (Berliner Abgeordnetenhaus) in the 2011 election. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by faws on 2011-09-23.
“Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star” will get an average critic's rating of between 20-30% on rottentomatoes.com ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2011-09-18; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-18.
In the next three months, there will be no thefts of bitcoins from bitcoin end-users resulting from a the end-user's GNU/Linux system being compromised. ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by tedks on 2011-06-18; known on 2011-09-18; judged right by tedks on 2011-09-18.
I will watch one or more of Tokyo Godfathers, Gunslinger Girl, The Cat Returns, or Haibane Renmei before 2014-01-01 and really like one or more ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-30; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-18.
The Wikipedia user Bread Ninja will have stopped editing more than weekly within a year. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-18; known on 2011-09-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-18.
This summer in North hemisphere will be the hottest weather ever. ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Eunseo on 2011-04-11; known on 2011-09-16; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-09-18.
I will have recorded at least one acoustic guitar song within the next week. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2011-09-21; judged right by Will Newsome on 2011-09-17.
By 2011, no major Iranian faction or political leader will publicly endorse testing a nuclear weapon. —Bruce Buena de Mesquita ( 15% confidence; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by fergus on 2011-09-17.
My email to Rafaela Hillerbrand <rafaela.hillerbrand@rwth-aachen.de> will bounce or otherwise be end in an error. ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2011-09-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-17.
The US Mint will mint one or more high-value coins ($100K+/coin) before 2011-09-15 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-30; known on 2011-09-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-15.
GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1014: Who will win the September 2011 Guatemalan presidential election, or will a run-off be needed? © Other or Run-Off ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-09-30; judged right by gwern on 2011-09-14.
HP MoR: Eliezer will publish ch78 before 7PM PST 13 September 2011 ( 47% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2011-09-13; judged wrong by fergus on 2011-09-13.
My rating at chesscube.com will be 2000 or greater within 6 months. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-13; known on 2012-03-12; judged right by Will Newsome on 2011-09-13.
There will be a major terrorist attack (>= 60 deaths) between 2011-09-10 20:00 UTC and 2011-09-12 06:00 UTC anywhere in the world except Afghanistan, Pakistan, or Iraq. ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-10; known on 2011-09-12; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-12.