Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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After the US election, media coverage and public sentiment regarding Coronavirus will greatly shift towards a view that its not all that bad. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kenlogan@gmail.com on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-12-29; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-12-29.
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In Finland before 2021-01-01 someone is vaccinated against COVID-19 with non-experimental vaccine approved for use in Finland ( 80% confidence )
Created by kuudes on 2020-10-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2020-12-29.
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I do at least 8 more days of Advent of Code (out of 10 remaining) ( 25% confidence )
Created by platypus42 on 2020-12-15; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by platypus42 on 2020-12-27.
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I do at least 5 more days of Advent of Code (out of 10 remaining) ( 60% confidence )
Created by platypus42 on 2020-12-15; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by platypus42 on 2020-12-27.
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I do at least 3 more days of Advent of Code (out of 10 remaining) ( 85% confidence )
Created by platypus42 on 2020-12-15; known on 2020-12-25; judged right by platypus42 on 2020-12-27.
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Entre os dias 11 de janeiro de 2020 e 26 de dezembro de 2020, publicarei ao menos 35 edições da minha newsletter semanal ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2020-01-04; known on 2020-12-27; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2020-12-27.
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A digital 4K video camera will be available for under US$4000 by the end of 2013. ( 80% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by dusk on 2020-12-25.
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“Less than 500 of the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II will ever be built” [Pierre Sprey] ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dusk on 2013-08-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by dusk on 2020-12-25.
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At least 2.9 million Americans will receive the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine in the first week of vaccinations (by December 19 at midnight EST) ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Liface on 2020-12-11; known on 2020-12-20; judged wrong by Liface on 2020-12-21.
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I will leave the office at 6 PM today ( 70% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-12-18; known on 2020-12-19; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-12-21.
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Zhongguo will ≥ 6.5% real GDP growth rate from 2015-2020. ( 95% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by nigr on 2020-12-19.
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bitcoin will rise above $20k at least once before May 1st (six months from now) ( 55% confidence )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-01; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by LukeS on 2020-12-18.
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Max Verstappen will win the 2020 F1 World Championship. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by skateboard34 on 2019-12-12; known on 2020-12-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-18.
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The first approved COVID19 vaccine will be Moderna's ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-06-29; known on 2022-06-29; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-12-18.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] April ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Stucwerk on 2020-12-17.
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I will buy a Mac this fall ( 25% confidence )
Created by Radish on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-12-16; judged wrong by Radish on 2020-12-16.
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starlink has a public beta available before december 15 2020 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by finback on 2020-08-31; known on 2020-12-15; judged right by finback on 2020-12-15.
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I do Advent of Code up to Day 15 (with max 1 day missed out on) ( 65% confidence )
Created by platypus42 on 2020-12-06; known on 2020-12-16; judged right by platypus42 on 2020-12-15.
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“The Essential Workers” (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020. ( 40% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-10; known on 2020-12-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-12-15.
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Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election ( 95% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-04; known on 2020-12-01; judged right by Deepak on 2020-12-15.
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I currently have COVID-19 ( 6% confidence )
Created by technillogue on 2020-12-03; known on 2020-12-17; judged wrong by technillogue on 2020-12-10.
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Spacex's SN8 will sucessfully complete its first flight and tests and come to a safe landing. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Reactionaryhistorian on 2020-10-10; known on 2020-11-30; judged wrong by Reactionaryhistorian on 2020-12-10.
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China publicly announces an investigation into Hunter Biden ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-10-04; known on 2020-11-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-09.
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Erik Prince runs for Senate in 2020 ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-05-05; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-09.
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[The 2020 US presidential election will be won…] narrowly by Donald Trump. His voter suppression strategy and electoral college advantages will result in a EC win but popular vote loss. ( 60% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by evan.f.young@gmail.com on 2020-08-04; known on 2020-11-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-09.
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Another character from Breath of the Wild will be added in Smash for Switch, either on release or within 18 months of release. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2020-12-07.
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The Telecommunications and Other Legislation Amendment (Assistance and Access) Act 2018 will cause high profile services such as AWS or WhatsApp to be withdrawn from the Australian market within 2 years ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2018-12-05; known on 2020-12-04; judged wrong by sjy on 2020-12-06.
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I subjectively consider the 2020 election to have turned into a clusterfuck ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-10-20; known on 2020-12-05; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-12-05.
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I will be able to plan out a schedule for the week and stick to it ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-30; known on 2020-12-04; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-12-04.
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Joe Biden (or replacement Democrat) wins the popular vote by a margin of 8% or more ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-07-09; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-12-04.
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Next term there will be a democratic president in America ( 73% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30; known on 2020-12-04; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-12-04.
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US President Zuckerberg ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-03; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-12-03.
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ND will finish his EU strategy by the end of the month ( 90% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-02; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-12-02.
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Politics, UK – Tavistock Judicial Review rules that a court order is necessary for the prescription of puberty blockers to teenagers as a part of GIDS. ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-08; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-12-01.
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Politics, Belarus – Lukashenko is not president anymore by end of November 2020 ( 9% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NickN on 2020-08-17; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-12-01.
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COVID, UK – Deaths attributed to COVID exceed 1000 for some day in November. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-31; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-12-01.
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By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy —Scott Sumner ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-10; known on 2061-01-01; judged right by Vaibhav_Srivastva on 2020-12-01.
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By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy —Scott Sumner ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-10; known on 2061-01-01; judged right by Vaibhav_Srivastva on 2020-12-01.
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Politics, US – Before 3 November 2020, federal legislation to provide at least $100 billion in direct financial assistance to state and/or local governments becomes law. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-26; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-12-01.
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Personal – I weigh in at below 61kg between the start of the 15th of November 2020 and the start of the 1st of December 2020. ( 73% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-31; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-12-01.
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Tech – Betfair resolves the 2020 US Presidential Election Next President market by the end of the 25th of November 2020. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-18; known on 2020-11-26; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-12-01.
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I'll manage to cook the enormous turkey properly on Thanksgiving ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by larssa on 2020-11-25; known on 2020-11-26; judged right by larssa on 2020-11-30.
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COVID, UK – Deaths attributed to COVID exceed 500 on some day in November. ( 86% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-31; known on 2020-12-01; judged right by Osuniev on 2020-11-30.
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Politics, US – Donald Trump concedes the 2020 US Presidential Election before the start of the 25th of November 2020. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-15; known on 2020-11-25; judged right by Osuniev on 2020-11-30.
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Politics, US – Donald Trump concedes the 2020 US Presidential Election before the start of the 25th of November 2020. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-15; known on 2020-11-25; judged right by Osuniev on 2020-11-30.
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There is a nuclear incident (someone uses a nuke) somewhere in the world in the next 4 years ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2020-11-21; judged wrong by platypus42 on 2020-11-26.
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I will go one week without eating candy ( 40% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-16; known on 2020-11-22; judged right by srconstantin on 2020-11-25.
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Trump will finish his first term as president. Note: I tried to make this prediction a few weeks ago and it didn't save. I'm a lot less confident given recent events but I'm adding it in here still for the sake of accountability and honesty. ( 68% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by SeriousPod on 2017-05-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.
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Trump will finish his first term as president. Note: I tried to make this prediction a few weeks ago and it didn't save. I'm a lot less confident given recent events but I'm adding it in here still for the sake of accountability and honesty. ( 68% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by SeriousPod on 2017-05-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.
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The price of bitcoin will have passed $20k at some point this month. ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Justinthere on 2020-11-20; known on 2020-11-23; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-24.