By 2050, the Great Red Spot will no longer be the largest storm on Jupiter. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-23; known on 2050-01-01.

The Singularity will occur by 2050. ( 34% confidence; 27 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by michaelanissimov on 2011-11-15; known on 2050-01-01.

By 2050, more tobacco will be utilized in the biofuel industry than in the cigar & cigarette industry. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2050-01-01.

Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Japan. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.

Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within the Korean peninsula. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.

Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Pakistan or India. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.

Conditional on the resumption of warfare, there will be <100,000 South Korean civilian casualties. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.

The monolithic one-party policy of the CCP will have been abolished by 2050 ( 25% confidence )

Created by omni on 2021-07-23; known on 2050-01-01.

“The vast majority of aeroplanes are now hydrogen powered, or use some combination of hydrogen and other renewable energy.” ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2050-01-01.

Brazil only 7th largest world economy or smaller in 2050 —HSBC ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.

Egypt, Malaysia and Indonesia in top 20 largest world economies —HSBC ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.

Turkish GDP > Russian in 2050 —HSBC ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.

American per-capita GDP 3x greater than Chinese per-capita GDP in 2050 —HSBC ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.

Chinese & Indian per capita in 2050 will be 8x greater (in constant 2000 dollars) than 2011 —HSBC ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.

India >=$8.2 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 —HSBC ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.

US >=$22.3 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 —HSBC ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.

China >=$24.6 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 —HSBC ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.

90% chance of AI by 2050 —Shane Legg ( 47% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2050-01-01.

Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ( 47% confidence; 22 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-09; known on 2050-01-01.

“By 2050, less than 20% of the United States will attend church on a regular basis (at least 3 times a month)” —Alex M ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-19; known on 2050-01-01.

The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. ( 15% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.

“By 2050 Baidu.com will surpass Google.com and become world's number 1 search engine.” —Yan Bashkin ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-30; known on 2050-01-01.

“Somewhere before 2050 abortion on request and/or for socio-economic factors will be illegal worldwide.” ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.

“By 2050 the tallest free or non-free standing structure in the world will reach over 10 kilometers in height.” ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.

“The End of Wheels: A country or state will ban the use of wheeled vehicles by private consumers on high capacity public roads.” ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.

China will land a man on Mars by 2050. ( 43% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.

“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” ( 41% confidence; 28 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.

“By the year 2050, there will be at least 1 green autotrophic person on the Earth…” ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2050-01-01.

Above 45°C temperature record in germany as of 2050 ( 60% confidence )

Created by atzeje on 2023-06-23; known on 2050-01-01.

“By 2050 most geologists will agree that most of earth's oil and gas reserves were not produced by decaying plants.” ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.

“By 2050, at least two pan-regional currencies, modeled on the Euro, will be used in the world.” ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.

“By 2050 no synthetic computer nor machine intelligence will have become truly self-aware (ie. will become conscious).” ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.

“The Bet: By 2050, we will receive intelligent signals from outside our solar system.” ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.

George R. R. Martin dies before Winds of Winter is published ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-14; known on 2050-01-01.

A heat engine which beats the Carnot efficiency will be developed before 2050 ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-07; known on 2050-01-01.

Faster-than-light travel developed before 2050 ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.

Armed conflict in space before 2050 ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-16; known on 2050-01-01.

Time travel developed before 2050 ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.

US will abandon the electoral college at any time before 2050 ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2016-10-02; known on 2050-01-01.

The Boy Scouts will admit openly atheist scouts before 2050 ( 79% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-07-28; known on 2050-01-01.

Teleportation to be developed before 2050 ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-20; known on 2050-01-01.

Artificial ears which are comparable to or superior than natural ears will be developed by 2050 ( 60% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-25; known on 2050-01-01.

Paraplegia due to spinal cord injury cured in greater than 90% of cases before 2050 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-24; known on 2050-01-01.

Invisibility cloak capable of concealing human sized objects developed before 2050 ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-24; known on 2050-01-01.

Mouse, rat, rabbit, or other small mammal successfully revived from cryopreservation before 2050 ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-17; known on 2050-01-01.

Faster-than-light communication developed before 2050 ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.

No functional whole brain emulation of a human will exist on Earth before 2050. ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2050-01-01.

By 2050 travelling by plane would be a luxury (less than 1 % of the world population) (because of resource depletion, or others) . ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Osuniev on 2013-09-05; known on 2050-01-01.

By 1 January 2050, the average house price in Australia will be at least AUD $1 million dollars. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2050-01-02.