Upcoming Predictions
-
“Human population of the world will peak at or below 8 billion in the 2040s and then drop dramatically.” ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2049-12-31.
-
X-Risk, Nuclear – Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, conditioonal on there being an offensive detonation anywhere? ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-11; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Personal – I try to develop a “potential breakthrough” as my choiceworthiness model of today puts it before 2050. ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-17; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Light speed will still be the same In 2050. In detail: assuming Quantum Field Theory still holds, the model of a free photon will still be massless and therefore its speed will be unavoidably fixed to the speed limit for Lorentz Transformations. ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Expipiplusone on 2016-11-17; known on 2050-01-01.
-
By 2050 most computer hardware will no longer be binary. ( 18% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-31; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Humanity will experience an outside context problem before 2050 ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2050-01-01.
-
By the year 2050, Nuclear weapons would have been abolished globally for the benefit of mankind. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2050-01-01.
-
2050: Less than 5% of the global population lives in autonomous units with populations between 10 million and 1 billion. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-02; known on 2050-01-01.
-
By 2050, will there be an extension to the way we understand reality similar to the one from probability to quantum mechanics? ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Morpheus on 2022-12-16; known on 2050-01-01.
-
World – Will there be a US-Russia war by 2050? ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-15; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ( 47% confidence; 22 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-09; known on 2050-01-01.
-
“The Bet: By 2050, we will receive intelligent signals from outside our solar system.” ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.
-
George R. R. Martin dies before Winds of Winter is published ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-14; known on 2050-01-01.
-
At least one country will decide its head of state by a reality show with real time votes by 2050 ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by volis on 2018-01-11; known on 2050-01-01.
-
The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. ( 15% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
-
“By 2050, less than 20% of the United States will attend church on a regular basis (at least 3 times a month)” —Alex M ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-19; known on 2050-01-01.
-
A peace treaty ends the arab-isreali conflict before 2050 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-08; known on 2050-01-01.
-
united Korea's GDP > France, Germany, and Japan in 2050 ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2050-01-01.
-
united Korea’s GDP > Japan in 2050 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Turkish GDP > Russian in 2050 —HSBC ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Egypt, Malaysia and Indonesia in top 20 largest world economies —HSBC ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Unique games conjecture resolved by 2050. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-10; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Surface of the earth still habitable for human beings by 2050 (whether or not human beings are, in fact, on the surface) ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Brazil only 7th largest world economy or smaller in 2050 —HSBC ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
-
“By 2050 no synthetic computer nor machine intelligence will have become truly self-aware (ie. will become conscious).” ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.
-
In the United States of America, driverless cars will have been sold to the public and it will have been legal at some point to use them on highways before 2050. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2050-01-01.
-
US >=$22.3 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 —HSBC ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
-
“By 2050, at least two pan-regional currencies, modeled on the Euro, will be used in the world.” ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Informal “Du” will be the most common form of address in everyday business transactions in Germany by 2050 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jasticE on 2015-03-03; known on 2050-01-01.
-
India >=$8.2 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 —HSBC ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
-
“By 2050 Baidu.com will surpass Google.com and become world's number 1 search engine.” —Yan Bashkin ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-30; known on 2050-01-01.
-
UAV's/drones will be commercially viable before self driving cars ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JosefK on 2014-01-30; known on 2050-01-01.
-
I will not go on this website between January 1st 2040 and January 1st 2050. ( 96% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-01-26; known on 2050-01-01.
-
“By 2050 most geologists will agree that most of earth's oil and gas reserves were not produced by decaying plants.” ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.
-
“The vast majority of aeroplanes are now hydrogen powered, or use some combination of hydrogen and other renewable energy.” ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Conditional on the resumption of warfare, there will be <100,000 South Korean civilian casualties. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.
-
There will be a breakthrough in mass cell culture that allows for growing artificial human organs & “clean meat” by 2050 ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by AlexLamson on 2019-04-16; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Pakistan or India. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Prime Minister Patty Hajdu ( 4% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-11; known on 2050-01-01.
-
“Somewhere before 2050 abortion on request and/or for socio-economic factors will be illegal worldwide.” ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
-
“By 2050 the tallest free or non-free standing structure in the world will reach over 10 kilometers in height.” ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within the Korean peninsula. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.
-
The monolithic one-party policy of the CCP will have been abolished by 2050 ( 25% confidence )
Created by omni on 2021-07-23; known on 2050-01-01.
-
“The End of Wheels: A country or state will ban the use of wheeled vehicles by private consumers on high capacity public roads.” ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
-
“By the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup.” – Robocup mission statement ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-11; known on 2050-01-01.
-
The Singularity will occur by 2050. ( 34% confidence; 27 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by michaelanissimov on 2011-11-15; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Japan. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Zero humans will have been in orbit around another planet by 2050 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dvolk on 2014-12-17; known on 2050-01-01.
-
China will land a man on Mars by 2050. ( 43% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
-
India GDP less than either China or USA in 2050 —HSBC ( 76% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01; judged unknown by Baeboo on 2020-12-01.