The first truly human telepathic-link will occur in 2065 via a biometric implant. ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2065-12-01.

Ed Boyden will win the Nobel Prize (in any category) ( 44% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2066-01-01.

2nd amendment repealed in the US (or US constitution considered invalid / replaced outright without an equivalent by at least half the area of the current states) ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2066-01-01.

A male or female friend of mine will marry a man, only to have it revealed later that he's transitioning to being a woman [in that order] ( 8% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-26; known on 2066-01-01.

Extra GDP contributions from syrian refugees and their descendants in EU has paid for the monetary cost of bringing them in ( 58% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-22; known on 2066-01-01.

Within fifty (50) years, what is today known as the Panama Papers will be generally agreed upon to have been leaked by a US Govt operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation. ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-04-04; known on 2066-04-05.

Conditional on the Panama Papers being leaked by a US Govt operation, the primary reason for the leak would be to show ordinary Russians the sheer corruption within the Power Vertical. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-04-07; known on 2066-04-07.

Conditional on Hillary Clinton's genome being sequenced, she will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers. ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-07; known on 2066-06-07.

Conditional on Vladimir Putin's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-01; known on 2066-07-01.

Conditional on Donald Trump's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-01; known on 2066-07-01.

Conditional on Bill O'Reilly's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder [NPD]. ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-01; known on 2066-07-01.

Conditional on Anders Behring Breivik's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-05; known on 2066-07-05.

The primary reason for the discovery of STUXNET was the Israeli modification of the source code. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-07; known on 2066-07-08.

It will be generally agreed that had Ukraine been invaded by Russia, there would have been guerilla warfare/insurgency against the occupation ( 99% confidence; 11 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-08; known on 2066-07-08.

It will be generally agreed that Rush Limbaugh's 2016 contract was for less money than his 2008 contract. ( 90% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-08-03; known on 2066-08-16.

Conditional on Joe Scarborough's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-10-10; known on 2066-10-10.

What is today known as the 2016 Oct Surkov leaks will be generally agreed to have been the result of a US Govt operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation ( 95% confidence; 6 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-12-01; known on 2066-12-02.

[Gaydar] Isaac Hempstead-Wright comes out as queer ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-07; known on 2067-09-08.

[Gaydar] Dean-Charles Chapman comes out as queer ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-07; known on 2067-09-08.

Conditional on Martin Shkreli's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-20; known on 2067-09-21.

Conditional on Scott Adams's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of having schizophrenia/being schizophrenic ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-28; known on 2067-09-28.

Conditional on Jeremy Bentham's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers. ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-10-05; known on 2067-10-05.

[Gaydar] KJ Apa (Keneti James Fitzgerald “KJ” Apa) comes out as queer ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2018-10-31; known on 2068-11-01.

[Gaydar] Saoirse Ronan (Saoirse Una Ronan) comes out as queer ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2018-12-21; known on 2068-12-22.

Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070 ( 22% confidence; 12 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-04; known on 2070-01-01.

Are large language models the final paradigm before AGI? (not sure about the best way to operationalize this question yet.) ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Morpheus on 2022-12-16; known on 2070-01-01.

The average healthy, non-smoking, physically active male reader of Reddit now in his early 30s will live long enough to experience a Singularity and in some manner escape the bonds of traditional mortality. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2070-01-01.

By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. — David Pearce ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 16 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2070-01-01.

Zcash hacked / value goes to 0 before marketcap hits 1T$USD ( 77% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-28; known on 2070-01-01.

“By 2070, at least six countries will have officially implemented a 4-day working week.” ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2070-01-01.

At least 90% of the developed world (probably more like 98%) will be consuming In-Vitro meat (they'll have a more popular name by then) instead of conventional meat by 2070. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2070-01-01.

The singularity will occur by the year 2070 ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by pleeppleep on 2011-12-02; known on 2070-01-01.

'Global average temperatures have risen by 4°C*' ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2070-01-01.

RSA with < v = 1024 bit key sizes to decipherable by government agencies with a couple of weeks or less effort by 2070. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by a0c4a123f7 on 2013-04-18; known on 2070-01-01.

I will exist in a purely virtual form by 2070 ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-03; known on 2070-01-01.

At least one of my grandparents will get cryonically frozen before 2070. ( 15% confidence )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-14; known on 2070-01-01.

Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-21; known on 2070-01-01.

The Betelgeuse star will be observed to die within 60 years ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by jasticE on 2010-10-14; known on 2070-12-31.

In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. ( 26% confidence; 25 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2070-12-31.

A large quantum computer capable of breaking 163-bit Elliptic Curve Cryptography WILL be built before 2070. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niconiconi on 2021-02-26; known on 2071-01-01.

Larry King will get cryopreserved in the next 50 years ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mati on 2021-01-03; known on 2071-01-01.

Eduardo Saverin will un-renounce or try to regain his US citizenship sometime in his life ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13; known on 2072-12-31.

The Arctic Ocean will be ice-free before 2073 ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-07; known on 2073-01-01.

Brad Trost becomes prime minister of canada ( 13% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-12; known on 2074-01-01.

A law-enforcement agency or someone(s) interested in law enforcement will be revealed to have been the creator(s) of Bitcoin, and will have done so in order to track illegal dealings. ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by EvanB on 2014-01-18; known on 2074-01-18.

By 2075 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2075-01-01.

At least one country will make producing animal meat products within its borders illegal by 2075 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by dvolk on 2015-01-02; known on 2075-01-01.

Bitcoins thought to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto will be spent by 2075-04-05 (hacks don't count). ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-24; known on 2075-04-05.

When elon musk and peter thiel personally land on mars, he unfurls a white pride flag ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-30; known on 2076-01-01.

I will still be alive in 2078. ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-11; known on 2078-01-01.