India >=$8.2 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 —HSBC ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.

There will be a breakthrough in mass cell culture that allows for growing artificial human organs & “clean meat” by 2050 ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by AlexLamson on 2019-04-16; known on 2050-01-01.

“The End of Wheels: A country or state will ban the use of wheeled vehicles by private consumers on high capacity public roads.” ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.

Chinese & Indian per capita in 2050 will be 8x greater (in constant 2000 dollars) than 2011 —HSBC ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.

“By 2050 no synthetic computer nor machine intelligence will have become truly self-aware (ie. will become conscious).” ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.

“The Bet: By 2050, we will receive intelligent signals from outside our solar system.” ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.

American per-capita GDP 3x greater than Chinese per-capita GDP in 2050 —HSBC ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.

Turkish GDP > Russian in 2050 —HSBC ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.

Egypt, Malaysia and Indonesia in top 20 largest world economies —HSBC ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.

China will land a man on Mars by 2050. ( 43% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.

Climate change refugees will polarise America and lead to mass protests followed by a proto fascist government by 2050 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by product on 2020-09-01; known on 2050-01-01.

The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. ( 15% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.

“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” ( 41% confidence; 28 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.

“By 2050 the tallest free or non-free standing structure in the world will reach over 10 kilometers in height.” ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.

A peace treaty ends the arab-isreali conflict before 2050 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-08; known on 2050-01-01.

“Somewhere before 2050 abortion on request and/or for socio-economic factors will be illegal worldwide.” ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.

AGI is developed by 2050 (on Earth) ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-18; known on 2050-01-01.

Prime Minister Patty Hajdu ( 4% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-11; known on 2050-01-01.

Above 45°C temperature record in germany as of 2050 ( 60% confidence )

Created by atzeje on 2023-06-23; known on 2050-01-01.

A room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor is used in household appliances by 2050 ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-08-12; known on 2050-01-01.

The monolithic one-party policy of the CCP will have been abolished by 2050 ( 25% confidence )

Created by omni on 2021-07-23; known on 2050-01-01.

The public will either have at least six months advance notice prior to the use of the first quantum computer for bitcoin mining (w/ SHA256), or such a quantum computer will not exist prior to 2050. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by lavalamp on 2014-04-10; known on 2050-01-01.

An (other) astronomical object with a diameter bigger than Mercury will be discover in the Solar System before 2050. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-04-01; known on 2050-01-01.

Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ( 47% confidence; 22 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-09; known on 2050-01-01.

90% chance of AI by 2050 —Shane Legg ( 47% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2050-01-01.

“By 2050 most geologists will agree that most of earth's oil and gas reserves were not produced by decaying plants.” ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.

George R. R. Martin dies before Winds of Winter is published ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-14; known on 2050-01-01.

“By 2050, at least two pan-regional currencies, modeled on the Euro, will be used in the world.” ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.

By 2050, a professional league would have raised the height of the rims in basketball above 10 feet. ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-21; known on 2050-01-01.

Twin prime conjecture solved by 2050 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-14; known on 2050-01-01.

“By the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup.” – Robocup mission statement ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by benwr on 2015-01-11; known on 2050-01-01.

A heat engine which beats the Carnot efficiency will be developed before 2050 ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-07; known on 2050-01-01.

Paraplegia due to spinal cord injury cured in greater than 90% of cases before 2050 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-24; known on 2050-01-01.

Faster-than-light travel developed before 2050 ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.

The Boy Scouts will admit openly atheist scouts before 2050 ( 79% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-07-28; known on 2050-01-01.

Invisibility cloak capable of concealing human sized objects developed before 2050 ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-24; known on 2050-01-01.

Mouse, rat, rabbit, or other small mammal successfully revived from cryopreservation before 2050 ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-17; known on 2050-01-01.

Artificial ears which are comparable to or superior than natural ears will be developed by 2050 ( 60% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-25; known on 2050-01-01.

US will abandon the electoral college at any time before 2050 ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2016-10-02; known on 2050-01-01.

Faster-than-light communication developed before 2050 ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.

Teleportation to be developed before 2050 ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-20; known on 2050-01-01.

Armed conflict in space before 2050 ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-16; known on 2050-01-01.

Time travel developed before 2050 ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.

No functional whole brain emulation of a human will exist on Earth before 2050. ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2050-01-01.

By 2050 travelling by plane would be a luxury (less than 1 % of the world population) (because of resource depletion, or others) . ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Osuniev on 2013-09-05; known on 2050-01-01.

By 1 January 2050, the average house price in Australia will be at least AUD $1 million dollars. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2050-01-02.

The world will not end before 2050 ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Lyaer on 2012-08-18; known on 2050-01-02.

Artificial eyes which allow the user to score 20/20 or better on a visual acuity test will be developed by 2050 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-25; known on 2050-01-02.

Infinitely many primes with gap <= 16, proven by 2050 ( 57% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-20; known on 2050-01-16.