github still exists ( 7% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-30; known on 2046-10-31.

jason scott still alive, running a javascript emulator ( 25% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-30; known on 2046-10-31.

Humans to land on Mars by November 24, 2046 ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-10-24; known on 2046-11-24.

By 2046 0% children under 5 will be underweight globally. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-21; known on 2046-12-25.

Earth's magnetic poles reverse by 2047. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-13; known on 2047-01-01.

Luminiferous Aether Theory turned out to be correct after all, big screw up/coverup dating to Michelson–Morley ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-13; known on 2047-01-01.

Milo Yiannopoulos still politically active/relevant in 30 years ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-20; known on 2047-08-17.

Finished the water ( 20% confidence )

Created by jhairguz.t@gmail.com on 2018-09-23; known on 2048-09-23.

Bharat's HDI will be > 0.856 by 2048. ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-15; known on 2048-12-25.

Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 30 years. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2048-12-31.

'more than half of Baby Boomers will live healthy lives beyond 100' —Ron Klatz ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-14; known on 2049-01-01.

At least 10k people are living on Mars by the end of 2049. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-06-06; known on 2049-12-31.

“Human population of the world will peak at or below 8 billion in the 2040s and then drop dramatically.” ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2049-12-31.

Light speed will still be the same In 2050. In detail: assuming Quantum Field Theory still holds, the model of a free photon will still be massless and therefore its speed will be unavoidably fixed to the speed limit for Lorentz Transformations. ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Expipiplusone on 2016-11-17; known on 2050-01-01.

X-Risk, Nuclear – Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, conditioonal on there being an offensive detonation anywhere? ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-11; known on 2050-01-01.

Humanity will experience an outside context problem before 2050 ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2050-01-01.

By 2050 most computer hardware will no longer be binary. ( 18% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-31; known on 2050-01-01.

Personal – I try to develop a “potential breakthrough” as my choiceworthiness model of today puts it before 2050. ( 20% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-17; known on 2050-01-01.

By the year 2050, Nuclear weapons would have been abolished globally for the benefit of mankind. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2050-01-01.

2050: Less than 5% of the global population lives in autonomous units with populations between 10 million and 1 billion. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-02; known on 2050-01-01.

By 2050, will there be an extension to the way we understand reality similar to the one from probability to quantum mechanics? ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Morpheus on 2022-12-16; known on 2050-01-01.

World – Will there be a US-Russia war by 2050? ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-15; known on 2050-01-01.

A room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor is used in household appliances by 2050 ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-08-12; known on 2050-01-01.

There will be at least one active probe in Martian orbit or on Mars at least until either January 1, 2050 or until humans visit Mars. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-14; known on 2050-01-01.

Cultured meat will outsell traditional meat in the US by 2050 ( 29% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RoryS on 2016-01-20; known on 2050-01-01.

A longterm (with humans present at least sixth months) colony will occur on Mars before it occurs on the Earth's moon. ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-13; known on 2050-01-01.

Unique games conjecture resolved by 2050. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-10; known on 2050-01-01.

Informal “Du” will be the most common form of address in everyday business transactions in Germany by 2050 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jasticE on 2015-03-03; known on 2050-01-01.

“By the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup.” – Robocup mission statement ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by benwr on 2015-01-11; known on 2050-01-01.

Surface of the earth still habitable for human beings by 2050 (whether or not human beings are, in fact, on the surface) ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20; known on 2050-01-01.

Zero humans will have been in orbit around another planet by 2050 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by dvolk on 2014-12-17; known on 2050-01-01.

A peace treaty ends the arab-isreali conflict before 2050 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-08; known on 2050-01-01.

Prime Minister Patty Hajdu ( 4% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-11; known on 2050-01-01.

AGI is developed by 2050 (on Earth) ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-18; known on 2050-01-01.

The public will either have at least six months advance notice prior to the use of the first quantum computer for bitcoin mining (w/ SHA256), or such a quantum computer will not exist prior to 2050. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by lavalamp on 2014-04-10; known on 2050-01-01.

Presence of life in the past (or present) that doesn't originate from Earth will be discovered in the solar system before 2050. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-04-04; known on 2050-01-01.

An (other) astronomical object with a diameter bigger than Mercury will be discover in the Solar System before 2050. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-04-01; known on 2050-01-01.

In the United States of America, driverless cars will have been sold to the public and it will have been legal at some point to use them on highways before 2050. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2050-01-01.

UAV's/drones will be commercially viable before self driving cars ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JosefK on 2014-01-30; known on 2050-01-01.

I will not go on this website between January 1st 2040 and January 1st 2050. ( 96% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2014-01-26; known on 2050-01-01.

Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2050. ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-12; known on 2050-01-01.

By 2050, a professional league would have raised the height of the rims in basketball above 10 feet. ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-21; known on 2050-01-01.

Twin prime conjecture solved by 2050 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-14; known on 2050-01-01.

At least one country will decide its head of state by a reality show with real time votes by 2050 ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by volis on 2018-01-11; known on 2050-01-01.

Gene drive found in the wild due to either unknown or rogue scientist in the wild before any gene drive released by a major NGO. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-04-20; known on 2050-01-01.

There will be a breakthrough in mass cell culture that allows for growing artificial human organs & “clean meat” by 2050 ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by AlexLamson on 2019-04-16; known on 2050-01-01.

By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ( 75% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-02-01; known on 2050-01-01.

Climate change refugees will polarise America and lead to mass protests followed by a proto fascist government by 2050 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by product on 2020-09-01; known on 2050-01-01.

united Korea’s GDP > Japan in 2050 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2050-01-01.

united Korea's GDP > France, Germany, and Japan in 2050 ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2050-01-01.