Human extinction caused by AI before my 50th birthday. ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-28; known on 2043-10-10.

The fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor will reach a Q >= 1 before January 1st 2044, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2044-01-01.

More people will get born in Russia in year 2040 than in Russia in year 2037 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by kuudes on 2021-10-27; known on 2045-01-01.

By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2045-01-01.

By 2046 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125 ( 62% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2045-01-01.

There will be a continual presence on Mars of at least one person or probe either on the surface or in orbit until at least 2045 ( 50% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-31; known on 2045-01-01.

By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2045-01-01.

By 2045, at least one of the following will occur: group isomorphism in P^factoring/poly, integer factoring in P^GI/poly, group isomorpism in BQP. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-25; known on 2045-01-01.

The first full body transplantation of a human will have been successfully done before 2045. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2015-02-26; known on 2045-01-01.

George Church to win the Nobel Prize (in any category) ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2045-01-01.

Relationship between P and BPP resolved by 2045 ( 69% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-16; known on 2045-01-01.

By 2045, electric powered passenger jets will exist. ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-20; known on 2045-01-01.

Before January 1 2045, no normal material substance (that is composed of atoms made from neutrons and protons with electrons) will be discovered that blocks more neutrinos than a factor of 10 over what a pure density argument would suggest. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-25; known on 2045-01-01.

By 2045, ZPP contained in P^(A,B) proven, where A is a ring isomorphism oracle, and B is an MSCP oracle. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-26; known on 2045-01-01.

There is no odd perfect number N such that N is not divisible by a 6th power of a prime- proven by January 1, 2045. ( 65% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-19; known on 2045-01-01.

The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding citizenship from a country not already listed, and/or all other catchall outcomes. ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 17 comments )

Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.

The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding UK citizenship. ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.

The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding French citizenship. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.

The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding German citizenship. ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.

The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Russian citizenship. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.

The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Pakistani citizenship. ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.

The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Indian citizenship. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.

The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Chinese citizenship. ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.

The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Iranian citizenship. ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.

The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Brazilian citizenship. ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.

The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship. ( 46% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.

At least one Apollo astronaut to live to see Artificial General Intelligence ( 5% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2045-01-01.

The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045. ( 25% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-11-24; known on 2045-01-01.

P=ZPP proven by 2045 ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-07; known on 2045-01-01.

A258107 to be proven to be finite by January 1, 2045. ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2045-01-01.

By January 1, 2045, a superconductor with a critical temperature of at least 240 K will be discovered. ( 65% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-21; known on 2045-01-01.

Within a generation, the “Aquatic Ape Theory” will become a significant minority opinion within anthropology. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-27; known on 2045-01-01.

u(1/2)<=.15 by 2045. Here mean u(1/2) in the Lindelof hypothesis. ( 95% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-19; known on 2045-01-01.

At least one WWII veteran will live to see Artificial General Intelligence ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2045-01-01.

By January 1, 2045, each of the cities of Flagstaff, Las Vegas, Albuquerque, Clovis, Prescott, Henderson, Hobbs, and Abilene will have a population of at most 10% its population compared to the population in 2015. ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-06; known on 2045-01-03.

A polynomial time factoring algorthim (on a classical computer) will be discovered by 2045. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-04; known on 2045-01-16.

Finite group isomorphism problem found to be in P by 2045. ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-04; known on 2045-01-16.

The ever increasing difficulty of pushing the economies of the world forward will force the nations of the world to band together into supranational entities. Not like the E.U. but more like a federation of nations banding together like the U.S.A. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by FarOutFuture1988 on 2015-05-21; known on 2045-02-01.

Superintelligence will be created within 30 years from 7th May 2015 ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by AlexLundborg on 2015-05-07; known on 2045-05-08.

As of 2015-08-19, Eliezer Yudkowsky has solved the hard problem of consciousness. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-08-20; known on 2045-08-20.

Humans on Mars by August 30, 2045 ( 50% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-08-30; known on 2045-08-30.

Within 30 years, the University of Maine will have a PhD program in mathematics (this does not count interdisciplinary with math). ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-04; known on 2045-10-04.

Toyota said by 2050, gas-electric hybrids, plug-in hybrids, fuel-cell cars and electric vehicles will account for most of its global vehicle sales. That means gasoline- and diesel-engine powered cars(85%) will be near zero. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2045-10-18.

Jimmy Wales and/or the WMF and/or any of its employees will be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize within 34 years. ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2045-12-04.

Yoshimoto Banana will win a Nobel Prize for Literature. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2046-01-01.

'2045 The totally self-contained mobile home (envisaged almost a century ago by Buckminster Fuller) is perfected. Any additional carbon needed from food synthesis is obtained by extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2046-01-01.

The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045 ( 56% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2046-01-01.

" I’m reasonably certain that [>1b pub library circulation] will also be true 35 years from now" ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-12; known on 2046-09-01.

51%+ of remaining humanity are muslims ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-03; known on 2046-09-03.