Within 25 years, a state with UN representation will exist whose territory incorporates portions of both Iran and Syria. ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-11-16; known on 2040-01-01.

Ted Nelson, inventor of hypertext: Shinichi Mochizuki is the real Satoshi Nakamoto ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-21; known on 2040-01-01.

Conditional on Putin leaving office in the middle of a term, Nikolai Patrushev is his successor for the majority of that term ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-07-29; known on 2040-01-01.

Clathrate gun fires ( rapid ( 1 C / year or more ) increase in global mean temp for 5 years attributed to clathrate methane deposit release) ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-13; known on 2040-01-01.

“Satoshi Nakamoto” collaborated with Nick Szabo to create Bitcoin. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ZLM on 2014-02-11; known on 2040-01-01.

Most roads in the USA will not use speed limit units of miles per hour on January 1st 2040. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-24; known on 2040-01-01.

“Automated freight transport” widespread by 2030s ( 84% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2040-01-01.

EU to dissolve by 2040. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2040-01-01.

An EA aligned organization will become the target of directed government repression by 2040 ( 85% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2040-01-01.

An EA aligned organization will become the target of directed government repression in the US, UK, or an EU country by 2040 ( 10% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2040-01-01.

There will be a crocs movie before 2040. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-08-29; known on 2040-01-01.

“By 2040, at least 40% of Americans making to age 65 will live to age 100.” ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2040-01-01.

DRACO proves effective. ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2040-01-01.

Internal communications of an EA organisation be part of a data leak by 2040 ( 80% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2040-01-01.

“By 2040 the existence of Qi will be accepted by the mainstream scientists, and Qi research will revolutionize our mechanical scientific TOE into a true TOE.” ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2040-01-01.

Over 50% of current drivers will be using auto driven cars.1 ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Yoro on 2021-04-04; known on 2040-01-01.

“By 2040, less than 5% of the global population is smoking.” ( 40% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2040-01-01.

“By the year 2040, AI will appear on computer viruses that will communicate with each other using a universal Internet language and will be programmed to fuse together and mutate into Computer Organs that will later be controlled by powerful search engine ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2040-01-01.

Final Gerald F. Ford-class carrier launched by 2040. ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2040-01-01.

VC Culture will die by 2040 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by optimaton on 2019-12-30; known on 2040-01-01.

A room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor is used in household appliances by 2040 ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-08-12; known on 2040-01-01.

GRRM dies before finishing A Song of Ice and Fire ( 49% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2040-01-01.

“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.” ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2040-01-01.

Someone will get a 500$ award from Chris Hallquist for convincing him to cancel his cryonics submission ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by itaibn on 2014-01-11; known on 2040-01-01.

By 2040, no other country will have both more active nuclear warheads and higher GDP than the United States. ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-10-02; known on 2040-01-01.

Bioviva's Liz Parrish to have demonstrated convincing evidence of age reversal with gene therapy ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2040-01-01.

Yoshua Bengio to eventually cash out into private industry (at least once) ( 40% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2040-01-01.

The petrodollar will be dismantled by 2040. ( 51% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-01-19; known on 2040-01-01.

World governments will ban chemical/Biological/Nuclear weapons after The Third World War (WW III) and make it a penalty of death to all who develop such weapons … anywhere … on Earth. ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2040-01-16.

Nuclear war in 25 years. ( 10% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by argothiel on 2015-03-04; known on 2040-03-16.

People will use Wine (the windows non-emulator) on Windows to play older games within 20 years ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by qznc on 2020-04-20; known on 2040-04-20.

Chinese economy will be larger than the US in the future. After that, India is the next best candidate that could surpass US economy in the next 25 years. After that China and India could be competing for number one — Masoyoshi Son, Softbank ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-17; known on 2040-06-24.

Lindsay Lohan will die before 50 ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jande417 on 2010-08-19; known on 2040-08-19.

Cognitive Implants will be available for consumer use by 2040. ( 62% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2040-11-17.

Terrorism in the Middle East Will Decline By Half By 2040. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-08-08; known on 2040-12-16.

Worldwide capacity of rooftop, building-integrated and local PV soar from 104GW in 2014 to nearly 1.8TW in 2040, a 17-fold increase. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-06; known on 2040-12-25.

European Union long term growth rate will average 1.4% real gdp annually. ( 100% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-19; known on 2040-12-25.

56% share of world generation for zero carbon energy sources(renewables+nuclear) by 2040. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-06; known on 2040-12-25.

If a second civil war starts/continues in the USA, and Republicans and Democrats are opposing belligerents, out of possibly more belligerents, Australia will fight on the side of Republicans. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by najdorf on 2020-09-10; known on 2040-12-31.

Fareed Zakaria: Indonesia will win more gold medals than Brazil in 2040 ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2040-12-31.

They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040 ( 55% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-05; known on 2040-12-31.

Fareed Zakaria: US will be #1 in gold medals in 2040 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2040-12-31.

China will win more gold medals than India in 2040 ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2040-12-31.

Universal literacy worldwide by 2040 for 15-24 year olds. ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-09; known on 2040-12-31.

'Global average temperatures have risen by 2°C' ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2041-01-01.

By 2040, people will be able to eat as much as they'd like without getting fat ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.

We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040 ( 52% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.