By 2050, will there be an extension to the way we understand reality similar to the one from probability to quantum mechanics? ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Morpheus on 2022-12-16; known on 2050-01-01.

World – Will there be a US-Russia war by 2050? ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-15; known on 2050-01-01.

Conditional on the resumption of warfare, there will be <100,000 South Korean civilian casualties. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.

“The vast majority of aeroplanes are now hydrogen powered, or use some combination of hydrogen and other renewable energy.” ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2050-01-01.

Brazil only 7th largest world economy or smaller in 2050 —HSBC ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.

Egypt, Malaysia and Indonesia in top 20 largest world economies —HSBC ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.

Turkish GDP > Russian in 2050 —HSBC ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.

Surface of the earth still habitable for human beings by 2050 (whether or not human beings are, in fact, on the surface) ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20; known on 2050-01-01.

American per-capita GDP 3x greater than Chinese per-capita GDP in 2050 —HSBC ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.

Chinese & Indian per capita in 2050 will be 8x greater (in constant 2000 dollars) than 2011 —HSBC ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.

A longterm (with humans present at least sixth months) colony will occur on Mars before it occurs on the Earth's moon. ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-13; known on 2050-01-01.

Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Japan. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.

Cultured meat will outsell traditional meat in the US by 2050 ( 29% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RoryS on 2016-01-20; known on 2050-01-01.

There will be at least one active probe in Martian orbit or on Mars at least until either January 1, 2050 or until humans visit Mars. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-14; known on 2050-01-01.

India >=$8.2 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 —HSBC ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.

US >=$22.3 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 —HSBC ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.

China >=$24.6 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 —HSBC ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.

90% chance of AI by 2050 —Shane Legg ( 47% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2050-01-01.

Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ( 47% confidence; 22 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-09; known on 2050-01-01.

By 2050, more tobacco will be utilized in the biofuel industry than in the cigar & cigarette industry. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2050-01-01.

The Singularity will occur by 2050. ( 34% confidence; 27 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by michaelanissimov on 2011-11-15; known on 2050-01-01.

A room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor is used in household appliances by 2050 ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-08-12; known on 2050-01-01.

By 2050, the Great Red Spot will no longer be the largest storm on Jupiter. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-23; known on 2050-01-01.

AGI is developed by 2050 (on Earth) ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-18; known on 2050-01-01.

united Korea's GDP > France, Germany, and Japan in 2050 ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2050-01-01.

united Korea’s GDP > Japan in 2050 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2050-01-01.

The monolithic one-party policy of the CCP will have been abolished by 2050 ( 25% confidence )

Created by omni on 2021-07-23; known on 2050-01-01.

Zero humans will have been in orbit around another planet by 2050 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by dvolk on 2014-12-17; known on 2050-01-01.

Prime Minister Patty Hajdu ( 4% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-11; known on 2050-01-01.

At least one country will decide its head of state by a reality show with real time votes by 2050 ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by volis on 2018-01-11; known on 2050-01-01.

The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. ( 15% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.

Gene drive found in the wild due to either unknown or rogue scientist in the wild before any gene drive released by a major NGO. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-04-20; known on 2050-01-01.

By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ( 75% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-02-01; known on 2050-01-01.

Climate change refugees will polarise America and lead to mass protests followed by a proto fascist government by 2050 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by product on 2020-09-01; known on 2050-01-01.

“By 2050, less than 20% of the United States will attend church on a regular basis (at least 3 times a month)” —Alex M ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-19; known on 2050-01-01.

Twin prime conjecture solved by 2050 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-14; known on 2050-01-01.

By 2050, a professional league would have raised the height of the rims in basketball above 10 feet. ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-21; known on 2050-01-01.

Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2050. ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-12; known on 2050-01-01.

“By 2050 Baidu.com will surpass Google.com and become world's number 1 search engine.” —Yan Bashkin ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-30; known on 2050-01-01.

“Somewhere before 2050 abortion on request and/or for socio-economic factors will be illegal worldwide.” ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.

“By 2050 the tallest free or non-free standing structure in the world will reach over 10 kilometers in height.” ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.

“The End of Wheels: A country or state will ban the use of wheeled vehicles by private consumers on high capacity public roads.” ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.

I will not go on this website between January 1st 2040 and January 1st 2050. ( 96% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2014-01-26; known on 2050-01-01.

There will be a breakthrough in mass cell culture that allows for growing artificial human organs & “clean meat” by 2050 ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by AlexLamson on 2019-04-16; known on 2050-01-01.

China will land a man on Mars by 2050. ( 43% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.

“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” ( 41% confidence; 28 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.

“By the year 2050, there will be at least 1 green autotrophic person on the Earth…” ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2050-01-01.

Above 45°C temperature record in germany as of 2050 ( 60% confidence )

Created by atzeje on 2023-06-23; known on 2050-01-01.

UAV's/drones will be commercially viable before self driving cars ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JosefK on 2014-01-30; known on 2050-01-01.